The Caledonian Campaign Next Year

Thursday, 14th May 2009

In a risky break from blogging orthodoxy, I'm actually attending a political event today (and tomorrow!) and have travelled north to Perth for the Scottish Conservative and Unionist party's annual conference. Next year's election - assuming we have to wait until then - will be a strange one in Scotland since, for the first time, the electorate will have two parties against which to cast protest votes. That is, voters may choose to vote against either Labour or the SNP. Or both. Add the complexities of a four-party system in a first-past-the-post election and the picture rapidly becomes somewhat murky.

That the Caledonian campaign is something of a sideshow that will not be where the battle is won and lost does not, however, mean that it's irrelevent to the national picture. For one thing, the prevailing view inside the SNP remains that a Tory victory is the result most likely to boost the nationalist movement. I'm not persuaded that this is actually the case, nor that the electorate will necesarily like the notion of being "bounced" into an independence referendum simply because the Tories have won a Westminster election. Such a campaign risks being run on purely negative grounds, whereas it's long seemed more likely (to me anyway) that the nationalists can only prevail - and certainly only deserve to prevail - if they make a positive, rather than chippy, case for independence/freedom/seperatism/divorce/call it what you will.

For that reason, if for no other, an improved Tory performance is of some importance. A Unionist government in London that only held, as the Conservatives currently do, a single seat in Scotland would be in a weak position indeed. Equally, the nationalists and Labour will argue that a vote for the Conservatives is, on the one hand, a vote "against" Scotland and on the other a vote that will embolden the nationalists and, consequently, undermine the Union.

So the Scottish Tories have plenty of skin in this game after all. I'd also suggest that, 12 years on from being wiped out in 1997, they need to make significant gains to remind English conservatives that Scotland - and the Union - remains worth fighting for. The party leadership seems to think so - Fox, Gove, Osbourne and Cameron are all speaking here this week - but the English grassroots are not so sure. That being so, it would be useful if the Scottish Tories were able to do more to pull their weight...

The Scottish campaign may be a sideshow, but that doesn't mean it's of no relevance...

Filed under: Scotland (208 more articles) , Tories (104 more articles)

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paracelsus

May 14th, 2009 12:29pm Report this comment

Set them free, let them loose, give them what they want!

Most in England are sick and tired of the Scottish and their moaning about rights and freedoms inherent to their perceived greatness and 'Scottish individuality'. If we can get rid of them that really will be the end of Labour's hopes for any future rule in Westminster.

If they do remain part of the Union, then their MPs should no longer have a say or vote over matters specific to England. We should get rid of the Scottish mafia as it now presides in Westminster.

With independence, Scotland would quickly become another small backwater. Good riddance.

mac

May 14th, 2009 1:40pm Report this comment

"give them what they want!"

That could be an interesting debate, Paracelsus.

Salmond will no doubt peddle his line that Westminster stole the proceeds of 'Scottish oil' and compensation is due. Perhaps someone might for starters compare that claim with the debt lumped onto English taxpayers courtesy both of certain Scottish banks and the profligate policies of assorted Scotsmen, unelected by any English constituency, in Downing Street . . .

Ian C

May 14th, 2009 3:35pm Report this comment

As an emigre Scot who once spent time in a Scottish Regiment and whose family still live in the Highlands, Scotland has become a basket case.

Their free economy is effectively based on what they can sell to the State, oil and what was once an attraction for multinational manufacturers is past its sell by date as Eastern Europe or further east is more cost effective.

Growth has largely come from the state sector and the occasional patch of sunlight in the small private entrepreneurial sector. This gov't has squashed the oil exploration indistry and the tiny-minded SNP have set their stall out against anything nuclear, including the fleet they have just been selected, for some reason, to support.

Their unemployed rate is massivley understated by an unknowable amount as benefit fraud is now hard and long imbued in the culture.

Viewed from England Scotland has been committing suicide for a long time. That is increasingly acceptable these days to the English voter, and you can't blame them when 20% more capita is spent in supporting Scotland than England. As Scotland have less than 10% of the UK's population that means England are paying for that leg up. Whether that is statistically true or not is not the point. If the English believe this to be true and this continues, their attachment to Scotland in England will wither at an accelearating pace. With good reason.

Jarod

May 16th, 2009 1:18am Report this comment

Now,if only there were an English Conservative and Unionist Party we could start having a debate on equal terms.Probably quite an equable one.

As it is , we English are stuck with the British label by British politicians and forbidden to express our own English identity. Which is a great pity as many English are going straight for English independence and giving up on the British bit altogether.

hadrian

May 16th, 2009 10:54pm Report this comment

Overburdened by politicians as our tiny nation is, I say bulldoze Holyrood at the earliest convenience and get back to supporting a mere 50 odd Westminster MPs- or vice versa- keep the exorbitant and revolting carbuncle and loosen all ties with Westminster- well, certainly the redundant numbers we maintain long-sufferingly at present.

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