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Wednesday 8 February 2012

Sarah Palin's Resignation Still Makes No Sense

Monday, 6th July 2009

Never let it be said that Fred Barnes can't take the long view. While he concurs, with regret, that Sarah Palin has dashed her chances of winning the Republican nomination in 2012, he still sees a path to the White House for Palin:

But there is a way: win Alaska's lone House seat in 2012 and oust Democratic senator Nick Begich in 2014. A term in the House and another in the Senate--nothing would do more to groom her for the White House than this and transform her into the best Republican candidate for the presidency in, say, 2020, when she'd be 56.

Well, sure, in theory this could work! But lots of things can work in theory. In any case, surely she'd be better-placed to win the House seat in 2012 if she had completed her term as governor? Any opponent would be perfectly justified in asking her if she'd actually serve her full term in office if she was elected. Doubtless she would say yes, but she'd have a significant credibility problem.

Marbury*, meanwhile, suggests that "This is her least bad option, even if it is a pretty damn awful one." That's a mildly contrarian take and it's true that it's diconcerting to find oneself on the side of the majority (it doesn't happen often!) and that this in turn should prompt one to re-examine ones position. But, having done so, her decision to resign her post still makes no sense whatsoever. My old pal Toby Harnden, no-one's idea of a bleeding-heart liberal bed-wetter, is pretty blunt:

How much more plainly can I put it? In terms of national politics, there’s no there there. The empress has no clothes. And the sooner people realise this, are honest about what the reality is rather than what they want it to be and stop allowing themselves to be taken for a ride the better.

The problem for Palin boosters is that she seems to have no desire to talk to anyone who doesn't already agree with her. There's no curiosity, no sense that there could be any legitimate alternative view and precious little evidence that she understands that successful politics is, in part at least, a matter of persuasion. She may still excite the Republican base but the base is not necessarily enough to win the GOP nomination and, these days, it's certainly not enough to win the Presidency.

And style is not enough. At the weekend Bill Kristol suggested that Barack Obama had become a national figure on the back of one great speech (at the Democratic convention in 2004) and that Palin was in the same position, having given a rip-roaring speech at the GOP convention last year. Well, up to a point Lord Copper. Apart from anything else, Obama wrote his own speech, Palin's was prepared for her (by Matthew Scully).

Palin has definite political gifts, but she's shown little sign that she's interested in truly engaging with the realities of the American political system. Running for national office is hard work. And it requires enormous discipline and, you know, knowledge. At the moment, Palin doesn't seem to have much of the former and she's certainly inadequate in the latter department. Style is not enough.

But the circus will continue, that's for sure. But it is a circus, not serious politics from a serious candidate. Still, you can keep up with it by following Palin's Twitter feed here.

PS: wasn't Palin's comment that "only dead fish go with the flow" rather strange? I mean, new born salmon "go with the flow" to reach the sea, while the pacidif salmon swims against the flow to, sure, give birth and then die. Perhaps this is, after all, an appropriate metaphor for her own political career?

*You can buy his book, To Be President: Quest for the White House, here!

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RW Rogers

July 6th, 2009 4:01pm Report this comment

Your participation in the professional pundit obsession about what Palin may or may not do next, much less two, four, or ten years from now is not particularly productive or insightful.

Beerchipsbingo

July 6th, 2009 6:14pm Report this comment

For a political non-entity, she's managed to keep you occupied. Perhaps like me, you think she's fit as a butcher's pup.

Move on now Doc. This is now a Palin drone.

Conservative Cabbie

July 6th, 2009 7:01pm Report this comment

Alex

There have been two Gallup surveys recently which shows that Americans are becoming more conservative - and not in a small way either. 40% of Americans declare themselves as conservative whilst self-identified liberals are in the low twenties. It has become marginally a majority pro-life country and there has been a large jump (10%) in the number of people who think that government is too big. Do you not think that those are sentiments that she can tap into?

And then there is the divide in America. Not necessarily cultural anymore, but class based. As Ross Douthat says in his column today, Obama appeals to the meritocratic whils Palin appeals to the democratic minded.

I agree with you that Alaska is probably lost for her, but the GOP, and particularly conservatism, is crying out for a leader right now and her star quality and her money raising powers (presumably) will put her in a very good place to recruit supporters throughout the party and the movement. It's true that she will probably have to re-model the GOP into a Goldwater-esque movement conservatism* but the state of the party right now makes that possible.

I'm amused by the frequent comments about Palin's platitudes. Remind me who got elected on "hope and change" and "we are the change we deserve". Intellectual stuff that!

* I realise Goldwater got a royal drubbing, but circumstances are very different now.

THX1138

July 6th, 2009 8:14pm Report this comment

Perhaps a more appropriate metaphor for Palin's political career would be:

"She sleeps with the fishes"

From the Number 11 Film on Pete's top 50 film list.

PresidentD

July 6th, 2009 10:10pm Report this comment

I think there's a perfectly rational reason for Palin to resign.

She simply got tired of being slimed by the left.

carol42

July 6th, 2009 11:12pm Report this comment

If you think Obama wrote his own speech you obviously haven't heard him without his teleprompter.

Kennybhoy

July 7th, 2009 10:45am Report this comment

Do you have any bairns Mr Massie?

Kennybhoy

July 7th, 2009 10:48am Report this comment

"For a political non-entity, she's managed to keep you occupied."

Indeed. I wonder why....?

Neil Craig

July 13th, 2009 12:53pm Report this comment

I'm not sure what you mean about her having "no desire to talk to anyone who doesn't already agree with her". Did she not debate with Biden? Who has she "refused to talk to"?

Having read her resignation statement which makes a reference to catastrophic global warming not being real I personally would very much like to see her debate this publicly with Al Gore but am quite certain he would refuse because he has, time after time refused to debate this with anybody who doesn't agree with him. I cannot remeber anybody in the "respectable" media denouncing him for having actually done what you denounce Palin for, when in her case it is not true.

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