Obama & Reagan

dearieme

You don't suppose that his chances of re-election might depend on whom the Republicans can find to oppose him?

Sam ARMSTRONG

Er... and what was Bill Clinton a response to?

Beefeater

"Uncanny"? The left in America - including Andrew Sullivan - comforts itself by this sort of thing. Entrails. Portents. Crystal balls. Tall dark and handsome strangers. Travel. Why on earth do you encourage these girlish frissons?

Snowman

Alex, what do the feint blue and red curves represent? Could you explain, please?

It these trace the approval ratings of other Rep and Dem Presidents, then you're reading too much into it. Approval rating of the lot trends down, that's it. The sloping of the Obama-Reagan curves begins to converge only after 5 months anyway.

Conservative Cabbie

Alex

The similarities are striking (although if you look at GHWB's line, the peaks and troughs are very similar between him and reagan too). However, I would suggest that there are two significant differences between Obama's term and reagan's.

1. Whether one attributes fault to Obama or not, it's undeniable that Obama is a very divisive President (his strong unfavourables are very pronounced). I don't think Reagan suffered from the same strength of feeling.

2. Although I can't confirm it through polling, I suspect that there is a much greater anti-incumbency, anti-political class effect in American politics now than there was in Reagans first two years. Obama was the outsider last year, but in three years time, he will be Washington-ized in the minds of the american voters. That may be a hinderance rather than a help.

Craig Strachan

Hmmm. I was in a gun shop in Simi Valley (home of the Reagan Library) over the weekend. There was a "Palin 2012" poster up behind the counter, and an Obama poster emblazoned "World's Greatest Gun Salesman".

And, blow me, but I thought I saw Rod Liddle shuffling in as I was leaving.

David Lindsay

All he has to do is beat Sarah Palin.

rod liddle

Uh-oh, back to single figures again, Alex.

Augustus

Obama isn't going to romp that easily to a second term. His 'magic' clearly no longer works, and the allure of his words has grown weaker. It's not that he himself has changed, but rather the benchmark used to evaluate him. People see a leader through the prism of their own lives - their jobs,
their household budget, where they live, and in times of war, where they sometimes die. Political dreams can easily become meaningless. But the political charmer Obama
was able to capture the imagination of millions of voters with a successful campaign. And campaigners, particularly those with a gift for oration, are fond of taking refuge in those imaginings, and so it was when he set up an enormous tent called 'Hope'. But today, in terms of Commander-in-Chief mode speaking there can be no doubt that Reagan would have handled the West Point speech differently. And he certainly wouldn't have used a 'battle' speech, or a call to action, to recite his country's limitations. As for a second term; at the moment, at least, this US president doesn't need any opponents. He's already got himself.

Alex Massie

ConCabbie - You're right that there's a greater anti-incumbent sense these days and that this feeling resonates strongly regardless which party is in power.

However, I think you underestimate the degree to which Reagan was hated on the left. There are parallels between that and the hatred of Obama we see in some parts of the right now. But, in a sense, that hatred also testifies to the scale of what both Reagan and Obama were trying to do. (Sure, Dubya and Clinton aroused plenty of hatred too, but in different, much more personal, ways. I think.)

I don't say Obama *will* be the liberal Reagan, merely that there are obvious paralells between them, not least the fact that their first years in office were dominated by serious economic difficulties.

At present, however, a four year recession is still the GOP's best bet. But, of course, events will have their say too.

AC

David Lindsay - What should he beat Sarah Palin with? Rumor has it she likes a freshly caught fish.

Snowman

Sorry Alex, but nothing would please me more, not even a multimillion win on the Lotto, than Palin winning the Presidency for the unearthly pleasure of seeing the pseudo-liberal fruitcakes with their moral equivalence pap and stuff queuing at the cardiology door, emigrating to hug the polar bears, or just shutting up for a while. Please God, can you listen at least once.

Austin Barry

Alex

I see a triumphant Rod Liddle has commented. You just can't help but love the guy: he is the ultimate trickster. God knows we need him in these po-faced, pc-times. Oh, and when are you resigning exactly?

rod liddle

He's apparently decided not to resign, after all, Austin. Shheesh. Good job he wasn't leading the Tolpuddle Martyrs, we might never have had a trade union movement.

AC

Alex, Try somehow to insult some cultures, a country, religion or even a small group of people without any thought, to get your numbers up. We are all hiding behind computers so be brave. Rod did and the internet traffic is (in an American accent) off the hook. Which is why he can brag. If you buy him some curry goat and a Dizzee Rascal cd he will show you the secret. Hold on to you job man for goodness sake. Dig deep into your inner bigot and at least try to be like Rod, he is the example of Journalism everyone aspires to. God I hope NOT.

Tiberius

Quality over quantity every time, gentlemen.

And anyway, Rod's Diane Abbott blog is shaping up as the cyber equivalent of The Royal Rumble, hardly a great contribution to culture, methinks.

The Test series in South Africa starts soon, and Alex's traffic will swell with comment of inestimable quality as a result.

Craig Strachan

Alex & Rod,

If you're going to have a feud, you should do it properly, with a structure. You know how these things work: you should have a full and frank exchange of fire - 'scuse me views - via a series of emails. You may initially take a high-minded approach and focus on the issues Rod raised, but it should quickly devolve into colorful and inventive personal invective.

Then arrange for Fraser to publish the unexpurgated exchange on the website.

Go on. You know it would get a lot of hits...

Snowman

Alex, what’s the idea behind you resigning? Stick it out, fight your corner. You write well. More often than not, many don’t bat for you, but this is what a healthy debate should be about. And don’t take things personally, whatever the labelers say.

and another thing: have a peep at Clive’s blog. Its emptiness is telling, and the few contributions he attracts are just regurgitating his point. That's the last thing you need if you want to make a name for yourself. Stay, please.

Alex Massie

Just to clear one thing up: I never threatened to resign. I *did* send a tweet to Charlotte Gore saying that Rod's post was sufficiently enraging that I contemplated resigning. But that's not the same thing.

At no point did I suggest resigning to anyone at the Spectator. I like it here and have no desire to leave.

So while one may tweet in anger, it's better to blog at leisure.

I'd have cleared this up sooner but for the fact that I've been in Perthshire since Sunday and out of internet range most of the time.