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Monday 21 May 2012

New Tory Tactic: Match Labour's Blundering

Monday, 1st February 2010

The Tories are quite right to point out that, when it comes to repairing the public finances, Labour are making it up as they go along. Unfortunately, so are they. Pete thinks that, despite this, the Tories still have the advantage and he may well be right. But if, for now anyway, a hung parliament looks more likely than it did a month ago, that's surely because of Tory mistakes rather than any brilliant manoevre from the government or any game-changing shift in the underlying economic fundamentals.

And there have been Tory blunders. Consider the famous poster*:

At first glance, it looks good doesn't it! But no, it's a terrible poster because...

1. It's too complicated and too clever by half. It bundles four ideas in a single package: A) The country is fucked, B) And almost bankrupt, C) But the NHS needn't worry about this and D) I'm the chap who can sort it all out. I won't even need to wear a tie.

2. The problem is that if A and B are true then C must be false and if C is false then D probably can't be true either.

3. The message is also a problem. It suggests: We know we need to reduce the long-term deficit, but don't worry, none of the stuff you like will be touched. There will be no money for jam but we'll make sure there's plenty for sweeties.

4. In other words, it wants to make a serious point about the seriousness of the deficit and then contradicts that seriousness by promising that the Tories won't cut anything that's popular. Then it asks us to take this as a sign of the party's seriousness about confronting long-term serious problems. Consequently, the poster, rather unfortunately, demonstrates a lack of seriousness.

5. Which in turn makes it harder, not easier, to draw a contrast with a government that is just as keen to talk about "cuts" while promising additional spending in popular areas. This poster doesn't draw a contrast with the government's approach, it eliminates it.

6. It's also defensive. It allows that the party isn't always or entirely trusted on health and implicitly concedes that, in spending terms at least, voters' suspicions that the Tories shouldn't be trusted on health are well-founded. Otherwise why would you need to make such a show of protecting the NHS budget? Some voters may conclude that, in their hearts, the Tories really would like to cut NHS spending but as a matter of political expediency/reality accept that they can't. So, for some voters, a poster designed to show how much the Tories have changed actually shows how little they have.

7. And that just makes them look opportunistic.

So if the polls really are narrowing and the Tories are only (only!) eight points ahead, it may be because voters appreciate that there are few appetising options at this election and that the more the Tories talk and the more they blunder about on spending and all the rest of it the more it is apparent that no-one can have any great confidence in either party tackling the all-too-apparent problems we face with real candour or honesty.

This poster is hardly the only example of this failure, of course, but it's a notable one nonetheless and not least because it was the Tories' opening shot in this exhausting, dispiriting campaign. The implied and underlying messages it sent, however, suggest that Central Office and Steve Hilton need to up their game. So, of course, does David Cameron.

*It is, as I've mentioned before, especially ridiculous that these posters have also appeared in Scotland given that Cameron will have no control of the Scottish NHS budget. Even if he wanted to cut its budget he couldn't. The Tory posters up here, then, demonstrate a tone-deaf, London-led approach that presumes that voters are too stupid to appreciate that Cameron is promising something he can't possibly deliver. That many of them may be that dim doesn't matter as much as the sense among better-informed voters that they're being taken for fools and patronised by the Conservatives. In any case, if and when the block grant is squeezed then, rightly or fairly or not, Cameron will be blamed anyway. So he'd be better off, north of the border, avoiding this sort of thing.

Filed under: 2010 Election (77 more articles) , Cameron (227 more articles) , Spending cuts (623 more articles) , Tories (273 more articles)

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David T Breaker

February 1st, 2010 4:50pm Report this comment

You are of course right on the poster, and I pointed out these problems on the ConservativeHome thread and my blog as well when the poster was first unveiled at the Conservatives NHS Draft Manifesto launch. I really should run an ad agency!

The one point I disagree with is that the poster looks good at first glance, because it doesn't. The image is too soft focus, and was of course accused of being airbrushed, whilst the rest of the poster has too much blank white-ish space, making it in effect a giant whiteboard for graffiti "artists". Its impact is also just about zero: if you saw it as you're driving round a roundabout you could be forgiven for completely missing the message or even the advertiser.

THX1138

February 1st, 2010 5:14pm Report this comment

A More Accurate Cameron Poster:

We can't go on like this. The Conservatives will do things very very slightly differently.

http://www.andybarefoot.com/politics/cameron.php

seb

February 1st, 2010 5:39pm Report this comment

Matthew Parris was right when, years ago, he said that politicians would forever be constrained not to tell the truth about the NHS because millions of voters expect it to provide them each with expensive and ever more successful forms of treatment, regardless of the cost. Given the present dire circumstances of the UK, it is now an absolute certainty that even the NHS will have to endure some serious pruning whatever happens at the next election. Quantitative easing has been tried and has, predictably, done almost nothing to revive the economy. More of the same will push our credit rating into Zimbabwean territory. The gilt market absolutely will not provide a profligate and delusional UK government, of whatever colour, with any more credit unless it sees rather brutal cuts being implemented. All three party leaders are aware of the irrationality of voters and of the fact that their party's share of the votes will plummet if any of them even dares tell the truth about what has to happen to the NHS. If you want to win an election, you have to win votes. The deluded and the irrational are as entitled to vote as anyone else. In times of such an appalling crisis, lying to them is the least bad option.

Labour has smugly and routinely reneged on a number of its most important manifesto pledges. Cameron, should he win, will be forced to do the same.

Cuffleyburgers

February 1st, 2010 5:39pm Report this comment

As I have commented elsewhere one key dividing line the tories must make is that while labour measures public sector performance in terms of how much they spend te tories would be looking to achieve the same or better outcomes while spending less.

Nobody believes that public spending is delivered efficiently, highlight the estimated 20% that is wasted.

Snowman

February 1st, 2010 9:01pm Report this comment

Look straight into my eyes,

(it might work, you know)

merle

February 2nd, 2010 9:55pm Report this comment

what a boring article. i wish i hadn't clicked on to it on google. and now, damn, i've been enraged enough to write this comment. david cameron is boring as well. damn.