
Photo: Eric Piermont/AFP/Getty Images
Cato's Tad DeHaven and Think Defence each have good posts on the future of the increasingly troubled Joint Strike Fighter. Costs have risen by 50% since 2001 and the plane is already looking like it will be delivered years late. Since the main justification for the JSF was that it was going to control costs this is a problem. The Americans will stick with it, but does that mean we have to? At present we seem to be heading for the worst of all possible worlds. As Think Defence puts it:
Quite. TD suggests that maybe we don't even need the damn JSF anyway. What about a reconfigured, updated Harrier? There's obviously something to that, but I suspect the Top Brass is committed to the idea of a new plane to match the shinyness of the new carriers. (Furthermore I suspect that we remain committed to the JSF because wavering on that front might jeopardise the carriers too.)It does not take a genius to work out that volumes will be reduced and we all know where that ends, a procurement death spiral where increasing development costs have to be spread over fewer and fewer production orders driving the cost up and so on.
There are other options, mind you. This is one area in which the idea of sunk costs really does have some merit. We can't get the billions already contributed to the JSF fund back and so all we're doing is maintaining an exceedingly expensive commitment to the Americans and subsidising, at enormous cost, a few thousand jobs in the defence industry. Maybe that's worth it, but what if it's not?
What if we abandoned the JSF and purchased the French Dassault Rafale? At least it is a plane that flies. It's hardy cheap but it must be less risky than the JSF even if, notionally at least, the JSF is half a generation ahead of the Rafale.
But of course this isn't simply a military matter. There's lots to be said for a much closer relationship with the French but are we, cold we, would be be ready to make such a volte-face? A greater euro-defence capability would be a fine thing, but that can only really come about, I suspect, is the UK and the French work together. And that's not likely to happen while we look west not south. Could there be a downside to this? For sure. And would it bring all sorts of other, complicated, difficult, nerve-wracking decisions about what Britain is about in the world today and how european are we and all the rest of it? For sure twice over.
All of which are reasons, I suspect, for sticknig with the JSF even though it is likely to be ruinously expensive, late and who knows what else. Buying French would be more sensible but more difficult. Easier, then, to do the expensive thing that also, happily, avoids all manner of other difficult questions.
Over to you, Brother Korski...
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Doppelganger
March 15th, 2010 6:28pm Report this commentIs that supposed to be a photo of the JSF? Lokks like an (Italian) Eurofighter to me.
Posted at 1816
TomTom
March 15th, 2010 6:34pm Report this commentLet's cut a deal with France that EU sourced aircraft will have Rolls-Royce engines as first choice. Weren't we going to get JSF with R-R engines until the US reverted to single-source ?
Time to lock up EU states to R-R engines and let the US swing...but France will have to review its SNECMA JV with GE
JAC
March 15th, 2010 7:32pm Report this commentSorry Doppelganger, it is not an Eurofighter but A French Rafale at the Dassault's FTC on Istres Air Base in south of France
aeroxavier
March 15th, 2010 8:42pm Report this commentwhat's the difficult about french? the old Hhistory? what was aircraft generation? furtiv design? no that was just USA argument for sale.
rafale have identish radar system of one f-22 , have similar weapon system, don't have one furtiv form(not invisible to recent radar), f-22 make just air to air fight and rafale make all, they have similar agility but the rafale "was" 4+ gen.
rafale better of the eurofighter, was ready for aircraft landing don't was expensive against.
everybody know the f-35 would be inferior of the f-22 and was conceved for make what the rafale was make. multimission. exept f-35 will be assist by the f-22 (only in USA) in the air and need be used after one air superiority winning.
rafale is better of all of this plane exept in air supremacy (f-22). but who have the f-22 ?
many country don't change teir choice (f-35) because they have just 5th gen fighter in the eyes.
that was very sad against french because english people dislike them and make all of possible to avoid them.
see kcx tanker in USA , airbus was pushed through northrop because that was not US firm.
poor england , all time in the hand of USA because USA speacks english. But GB was just one pawn for USA, remember irak invasion, some country french in head have say no and mass destruction weap is not proved, what's english reaction against true reality ? but when USA play with GB...GB follow
to be continued...
Noa Zrk
March 15th, 2010 10:05pm Report this commentOr we could use our own money to fund the development of our own military aircraft and equipment.
Take it from the bottomless benefits and welfare expenditure and invest in our own industry and capabilities.
Olaf Rye
March 15th, 2010 11:09pm Report this commentWe should buy the best equipment. I know it is expensive, but we could always take the money out of the bureaucracy and social services since these have proven themselves a complete waste of our resources. At least the military does not let us down !
jonny
March 16th, 2010 12:03am Report this commentI have a friend who works for Northrop Grumman, a principal subcontractor for the JSF, and she told me last week that progress on the machine is very very slowww. The Rafale simply doesn't have the engine power and would not be a good choice. So we push the Yanks, navalise the Typhoon, or come up with a Sea Harrier FR3
Joe Coles
March 16th, 2010 12:16pm Report this commentThe US have to make the F-35 work as it is the future of both their three air forces fast jets and their future fighter sales. The British are less tied to it, but as a Tier 1 partner there has been a massive investment in the programme, which could be negatively impacted if the UK withdrew all orders. It must also be remembered though that the UK has so far only committed to three F-35s. A navalised Typhoon would be an expensive, high-risk alternative- the undercarriage, structural and possible materials changes having not been tested. Costwise, the F-35 which was intended to have been an 'affordable fighter', is currently more expensive per aircraft than Typhoon- a type lamented for its perceived high-cost. The F-35 is too ambitious and is suffering a development that parallels the last ‘do everything fighter’- the doomed F-111B.
The F/A-18E/F Super Hornet would be the lowest risk alternative,but this move would not be supportive of European solutions to defence needs (a licence-build by BAE Systems being uneconomical considering the small amount). Rafale would be an expensive solution, and an unknown quantity in some regards- though commonality with French carriers would aid interoperability. An upgraded Harrier, fitted with a modern radar would be one option- but airframe life, performance and survivability are all factors which weigh against this solution
.
dede
March 16th, 2010 5:09pm Report this commenteurofighter and f-35 was more expensive with the rafale. this is US argument against this plane. they based the price of the plane and the cost of development for just the number of plane previewd for french air force.
the price for make one rafale is 90 m $.
rafale engine is one other argument for foreign competitor. but dassault make one new engine. actual engine was very good, this is stupid propaganda against this plane.
Christian Benesch
March 17th, 2010 10:48am Report this commentThe picture shows a Rafale not an Italian Eurofighter :-) .
In any case, the French should take over the Queen Elizabeth carrier design for their PA-2, and the British should put Rafales on theirs.
It screams "SYNERGY!!!" so loud it is almost painful.
Get over yourselves.
Christian
PS: Why do we subsidise US research and development, anyways ?
mcmuffin
March 17th, 2010 11:27am Report this commentOh dear, chaps. We've not thought hard about this, have we? What's going to save our airforces when when they come up against Sukhoi PAK-FAs. They will make mince of ALL options bar the JSF and the Raptor, now out of production as "too expensive". And they'll do over the JSF at a ratio of about 4-1 on a generous viewing. Of course, if stomping on Third World countries is your preference, then you might as well stick with Eurofighters but if , say, Iran gets the top-level Russian SAMs, it could be ugly. Better pray the West doesn't get in a stoush with Russia or India in the next 20-30 years because air superiority will have been compromised in that time. Fifth-generation-capable, ultra-stealthy drones anyone?
McMuffin
March 17th, 2010 11:53am Report this commentOf course, there is a US-centric counter argument to this that makes interesting reading. Not sure it's not rebutable but it has weight. It lives here:
http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story_channel.jsp?channel=defense&id=news/awx/2010/01/29/awx_01_29_2010_p0-200740.xml&headline=Russian%20Fifth-Generation%20Fighter%20Airborne
Mathew
March 17th, 2010 4:51pm Report this commentWho said the Rafale got bad engines? The M88-2 are excellent! They even exist in a more powerful version for possible customers in the Middle East. Besides it s a better plane now than the Eurofighter Typhoon, still in a too limited version, mostly for aerial deterrence! See the Saudis who prefer using their F-15 instead of their Typhoons, too limited. EF also lost official evaluations in Switzerland and made very poor results in direct confrontations with the Rafales in UAE recently. Yes GB should buy some Rafales if the need is expressed. I would be glad to see GB and France in common military expansion and future projects.
Last but not least, the JSF is so costly depending on the US technology, restrained, and nobody can say whether it's a real good warplane!
Joe Coles
March 18th, 2010 1:33am Report this commentMathew,
1) Rafale has a lower power-to-weight ratio than Typhoon for a given load-out.
2) Saudi Arabia currently has less than a handful of Typhoons and has had them for less than a year. Your claim that they "prefer using their F-15s" is bizarre, as the Typhoons have not yet achieved combat readiness status in RSAF service, which would be a prerequisite for any usage preference.
3) The results of the ATLC as announced by the French air force in the UAE which you refer to are widely disputed. There is a more detailed analysis of this in several monthly aviation magazines.
I agree with you that the F-35 is unquantifiable and very expensive.
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