Subscribe to The Spectator

Thursday 23 February 2012

Latest issue

Buy the current issue

Jobs at Telegraph

Tony Blair's Foolish Sabre-Rattling

Wednesday, 24th March 2010

Here's Tony Blair, speaking at AIPAC yesterday:

We should be clear also.

Iran must not be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons capability.

They must know that we will do whatever it takes to stop them getting it. 
The danger is if they suspect for a moment we might allow such a thing.
Emphasis added. This doesn't really differ from long-established US policy except that the Americans tend to be a little less vocal when it comes to pledging military action. Then again, they'd be the ones having to take the decision to attack and they, not Blair, would be the ones who'd have to deal with the consequences.

Doubtless Blair would protest that he trusts the matter won't come to a head and doubtless too he's right to suppose that there's an element of game theory to all of this. But even Blair must appreciate, even when speaking at AIPAC, that he's talking though his hat.

Whatever it takes? Well, one can imagine circumstances in which air strikes are launched. But if they don't work? (And few people, I think, believe that there can be any certainty or even probability that they will.) What then? The answer is that neither Washington, nor I think Israel, is going to do or be in a position to do "whatever it takes" to prevent Iran building a nuclear bomb. (No-one's going to invade Iran, for instance.)

We know that and it seems probable that the Iranians know that too. Which makes such talk seem somewhat odd. What does it benefit anyone to have Blair writing cheques neither he nor anyone else has any real intention of cashing? It's almost as if Blair thinks that the west needs to adopt the traditional Don't Mess With Us, We're Just Crazy Enough To Do Something Crazy approach normally reserved for, well, crazy regimes run by crazy people. The problem with this, however, is that it simply provides more incentives - if they needed any! - for Iran to press on with its nuclear programme to guarantee, from their perspective, their own defence.

This, I think, is likely to be true whether the US or Israel launch airstrikes or not and also true even if those strikes "work". The rational response to being attacked is to build up your defences so it won't happen again. Why should we suppose that the Iranians would react any differently? 

Equally, it's not hard to see how this sort of talk and behaviour both strengthens the existing (vile) regime and makes it likely that, for reasons of national pride and honour if nothing else, any alternative, successor regime (should there be one) will also be likely to press ahead with the nuclear programme.

So what, exactly, is Blair hoping to achieve with this sort of talk?

No, I don't know how to persuade the Iranians that it's not sensible for them to have the bomb and yes, I'd much rather they didn't have one but you tell me how this sort of stuff is supposed to advance that cause.


Filed under: Blair (53 more articles) , Iran (135 more articles) , Middle East (260 more articles) , War (144 more articles)

Blogs: Martin Bright | Susan Hill | Melanie Phillips | Coffee House | Faith Based

Actions: Print this article  |  Email to a friend  |  Permalink   |   Comments (16)

Post this entry to:   del.icio.us | Digg | Newsvine | NowPublic | Reddit

Comments Post comment

Avudale

March 24th, 2010 2:04am Report this comment

After Iraq/Afghanistan, any war may seem impossible to American or British governments, but that doesn't mean no war or pre-emptive strikes shouldn't ever occur.

I can't see how anyone can justify allowing the theocracy of Iran to get a nuclear weapon.

The only reasonable course of action is to strike Iran's technological capabilities and remove the threat if and when sanctions fail.

DavidDP

March 24th, 2010 3:21am Report this comment

The Republicans won't be supporting any action. After all, they now subscribe to government by opinion poll.

Teepee

March 24th, 2010 6:57am Report this comment

Don't Mess With Us, We're Just Crazy Enough To Do Something Crazy isn’t a good basis for negotiation. But this is exactly the argument that is dredged out when the UK tries to justify the continued development of its nuclear weapons programme – a spend of £90bn plus is already under way for the replacement of Trident. We do need to be in the persuasion game. Maybe we’d stand a better chance of getting to “go” if we were practicing what we preach and reducing not extending our own nuclear weapon capability?

J. S. G.

March 24th, 2010 7:21am Report this comment

Tony should put his money where his mouth is. Why shouldn't the British attach and occupy Iran regardless of whether they are developing the bomb. Why try to find justifications. The West needs no such justifications as they proved to be counterproductive in case of Saddam Hussain and Iraq. It should be enough that Israel considrs the Iranian regime as the biggest threat which should be eliminated at all cost to Iranians.

Naomi Muse

March 24th, 2010 9:43am Report this comment

Blair has no right to issue threats on behalf of anyone other than himself.

Obviously as he has made so much personal money out of politics and on the back of his previous role, he must be intending to bankroll any military action personally and would therefore not need to go to the UN or anything for Blair inc., is a separate entity and not subject to UN resolutions.

Interesting that the hubris remains dominant in the rhetoric.

Big Bob

March 24th, 2010 10:25am Report this comment

Q. "So what, exactly, is Blair hoping to achieve with this sort of talk?"

A. $$$$$$$$$$...

Occasional Ostrich

March 24th, 2010 10:30am Report this comment

Two redundant words at the end of your headline, I think?

Coeur de Lion

March 24th, 2010 11:08am Report this comment

Erm, I worry about the Straights of Hormuz - the lifeline of our comfortable lifestyles - so easily blockable by a couple of Silkworm missiles or diesel-electric submarines. The threat would do it.

Wily Trout

March 24th, 2010 12:13pm Report this comment

What does he mean "we"?

Zoo keeper (Elephant House)

March 24th, 2010 1:40pm Report this comment

Mr Blair is only interested in Mr Blair.
He is a discredited peripheral figure. Or should be.
Why would anyone be interested in what he has to say?

Nick

March 24th, 2010 1:59pm Report this comment

What a bargain those tennis games were all those years ago.

Now there's Tony singing for his supper at his master's table.

King Prawn

March 24th, 2010 2:58pm Report this comment

So Blair tells the truth again and gets lambasted for doing so.

Sorry, but the only message that Obama is giving the Iranian theocrats is that he is prepared to let them have the bomb and sod the consequences.

Just like he is prepared to sacrifice the long-term security of Israel to obtain a worthless peace deal in the Middle East.

Noa Zrk

March 24th, 2010 8:28pm Report this comment

With some people "whatever it takes" means I'll use whatever means, military or diplomatic, at my disposal.

But with Blair Wabbit it means "How much do you want, Oby and Gordon will get it for you".

Beefeater

March 24th, 2010 9:44pm Report this comment

He who lives by the word, shall die by the word.

chelsea

March 25th, 2010 2:14pm Report this comment

What a hypocrite!! No Im sorry Iran you cannot have nuclear weapons but us Brits can!
Does no one realise that we are all citizens of a country that actually has weapons of mass destruction?? Why are Iran the only ones being highlighted here as a risk? Wake up!

Augustus

March 25th, 2010 8:58pm Report this comment

Just as Hitler sought to liberate humanity by murdering the Jews, so too Ahmadinejad believes he can 'liberate' the Middle East by violent eradication of Israel. When in 2006, in a cult-like ceremony, Ahmadinejad unveiled two metal containers in which were
Iran's first independently enriched uranium,
choirs thundered 'Allahu Akbar' as exotically clad dancers whirled ecstatically
around the containers and lifted them heroically towards the heavens in the style of a Maoist opera. There is a pervading ideology of martyrdom which Ayatollah Khomeini bequeathed to his successors. Life
was really valueless compared to the beginning of true life: Death. The beautiful natural world which we enjoy and admire, to him was the lowest element, indeed 'the scum of creation'. To him death is no death, but merely the transition from
this world to the world beyond, where martyrs will live on eternally in splendour.
You see, whether these martyrs win their battles, or lose them, victory is assured: Either a mundane worldly one, but a spiritual one in any event.

Whereas the majority of Iranians possibly wouldn't go along with this, the radical Islamists do appear to be capable of preparing for such a scenario. After all, in the Arab world Hitler is admired. He is admired not for building highways, or conquering Paris, but precisely for murdering Jews. We seem to be dealing here with a phantasmagoric parallel universe in which reality principles are constantly ignored, and blatant anti-Semitic paranoia and hatred rules. A universe from which the laws of reason have deliberately been excluded, and all mental and physical energy
harnessed ready to be unleashed for the anti-Jewish cause.

Post comment

Back to top

Cartoons

Tag Cloud

Search this blog

Alex Massie's blog archive

sponsored links

Spectator recommends

Spectator classifieds

THE PRESENT FINDER

1,700 Unusual Christmas Presents Request Catalogue 01935 815 195 Quote SPEC10 for 10% discount www.presentfinder.co.uk

OLIVE BRANCH FLORISTS

Pimilco based Florist with online ordering Web: www.olivebranch.net Tel: 020 7630 1868 Fax: 020 7233 8844

RUFFS Bespoke Signet rings

62 Shore Road, Warsash, Southampton, SO31 9FT Telephone: 01489 578867 Web site: www.ruffs.co.uk