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Monday 21 May 2012

Cameron Should Also Talk to Alex Salmond

Friday, 7th May 2010

Whither Scotland? Well, apart from Labour regaining the two seats it lost in by-elections not a single seat changed hands north of the border. Indeed there was a swing to Labour and I suspect that Brown and Jim Murphy won votes when they warned that a vote for anyone else was a de facto vote for the Conservatives. Such is life and it's remarkable how these ancient ghosts still retain the ability to spook the populace.

So why should Cameron speak to Salmond? Well, because he should be able to get the SNP to at least abstain on a putative Tory budget. Cameron has already said that the Scottish government's grant will not be addressed this year (because the budget has already been agreed and passed) and that's a decent starting point for talks.

Just as importantly, Cameron can call Salmond's bluff: the SNP leader is already talking, foolishly, about how a new Tory ministry won't have any kind of mandate in Scotland. Well, let him have his referendum and make it a simple Yes/No vote on independence. Salmond, not being stupid, can't really want such a vote but he might find it hard to escape having it if Cameron puts it on the table.

In this respect I agree with Iain Murray, though perhaps for different reasons. He argues:

One final point. If I had my druthers, I'd offer a deal to the Scottish Nationalists for a referendum on Scottish independence. The Scots have clearly and decisively rejected unionism, so it is time for them to taste the consequences of that rejection. The public finances of the United Kingdom of England, Wales, and Northern Ireland would improve markedly and the Conservatives would have a solid majority. I can't see why this option isn't on the table.

Up to a point. The Unionist parties won more than 75% of the vote in Scotland so unless one thinks Toryism is the only way of expressing unionism then it's hard to see how Scotland has "rejected unionism". It certainly didn't embrace the SNP yesterday and, really, it's hard to see how the nationalists would, in the current climate, win a referendum. Which is why they shouldn't want one and why David Cameron should offer one to settle the matter for, as Salmond accepts himself, a generation.

And doing so would settle this legitimacy sillyness for good. (For that matter, a Con-Lib deal with a Liberal such as Charlie Kennedy filling the role of Secretary of State for Constitutional and Devolved Affairs or something would be no bad thing either and also spike the malcontentns guns to some degree.)

UPDATE: Of course there's an element of pies-in-the-sky about this given that Labour are already talking to the Nats and Eck has dismissed cutting any deal with Dave. Nevertheless, this simply demonstrates a failure of imagination.

Filed under: Cameron (227 more articles) , Election 2010 (599 more articles) , Salmond (83 more articles) , Scotland (499 more articles) , SNP (218 more articles)

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joe

May 7th, 2010 3:56pm Report this comment

How about making the Scots an offer they can't refuse.
Independence or cut off the money.
Obviously, the best time to have done this would have been when all the Scottish banks were bust, but now would be nearly as good

SJH

May 7th, 2010 4:15pm Report this comment

Has anyone pointed out to Alex Salmond that the BNP polled more votes than the SNP?

Alex Massie

May 7th, 2010 4:42pm Report this comment

SJH - What's your point? There are more racist goons in England than nationalists in Scotland? What does that prove?

SJH

May 7th, 2010 5:22pm Report this comment

My point was merely that for all of Salmond’s swaggering on mandates, from one perspective his party is less popular than Nick Griffin’s.

It’s also an interesting statistic for champions of proportional representation

paola

May 7th, 2010 6:18pm Report this comment

Actually David Cameron should speak to Alex Salmond and promise him that he will allow the whole of the UK to vote on Scottish independence.

Scotland would be immediately given independence whether they wanted it or not. England plus satellites (Little Britain?) gets much more democratic government, plus it would help enormously with public finances.

Olaf Rye

May 7th, 2010 6:44pm Report this comment

I think Alex Salmond is a shrewd politician and certainly not daft. The thing to recognise is that he is an opportunist that will attempt to extort the most from Westminster for his own purposes. Ultimately, I cannot see Scotland being so ideologically blinkered as to reject the Union and seek independence: the nation just does not have an economy that can sustain independence and they would pursue this policy to their own detriment. Scotland is not as well educated as Norway (I mean this as a proportion of skilled workers and highly specialised business ventures) and there is still far too much dependence on heavily subsidised business and the civil service, so their favourite analogue on the Continent is not really comparable. What Salmond probably wants is to strike a deal that makes him look good ... whether the Tories are willing to make concessions in this regard for his support is quite another matter. At the moment, in such economically straitened times, I doubt that would be palatable to the electorate in England.

Robert Joyce

May 7th, 2010 6:49pm Report this comment

Would a Conservative/Nats arrangement help to improve the Conservatives' standing in Scotland? Surely the true issue for the Conservatives is to regain some seats there?

Rhoda Klapp

May 7th, 2010 7:16pm Report this comment

How about two referendums (-da?), one in England and one in scotland, same question, in or out? Either one says out, out wins.

You see, either side in a marriage may initiate a divorce. It is patently unfair to have one big vote where English votes would outweigh Scots, but equally unfair to let the Scots decide alone.

Edmund Pinsen

May 7th, 2010 8:38pm Report this comment

I think where Cameron should be talking to the SNP is on his manifesto pledges that only affect England.

Cameron has a clear magority of English seats and the SNP must recognise that this gives them a mandate to pass any manifesto pledge that does not affect the whole of the UK.

As Gordon Brown is hardly likely to abstain on such things then Cameron can make the case that if the SNP are serious about all things devolution they should vote with the Tories on English only matters.

This should play well with most Scots who would see it as reasonable and the SNP could have fun with it if they spin it as recognizing English independence.
As it doesn't cost them anything they might accept some token gesture in return for a package of manifesto pledges, then pressure could be put on Plaid to do the same thing.

Add in the DUP, take away Sinn Fein then assuming a win in Thirsk the Tories can squeak through.

It might be a cheap way to get through a lot of legislation.
Then again I'm an optimist.

paulg

May 8th, 2010 1:13pm Report this comment

I'm English and a unionist, but Scotland is tribal and delivers an overwhelming labour vote, that denies English conservatives the government they want.

The Scots are going to have to be given a greater measure of independence and, a new system of governance is going to have to emerge the conservatives won overwhelmingly in England and should have right to govern here. Sad but the only way

barryday

May 8th, 2010 2:13pm Report this comment

Alex Salmond reminds me in looks and staure of a Mafia Godfather without the support!
He is an extortionist of the system. If he was on benefits he would be in the dock for fraud!
DC should not be speaking with this gangster!