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Tuesday 22 May 2012

Israel Notes: The Price of Gilad Shalit

Friday, 29th October 2010

Gilad Shalit's mother, speaking earlier this summer at a rally demanding his release.

At dinner in Tel Aviv last week discussion turned to the strange, awful case of Gilad Shalit, the Israeli soldier captured and held prisoner by Hamas for the past four years. The rumour was that Israel was prepared to offer an extraordinary deal to bring Shalit home and that this would involve releasing hundreds, perhaps even as many as a thousand, prisoners in exchange for the life and liberty of a single Israeli soldier.

What, asked our hosts, did we think of this? Would the British government countenance such a deal? No, our visiting troop of journalists thought, it probably would not. It would be seen as a sign of weakness and an invitation to capture and hold hostage other soldiers. Saving one would imperil many more.

This is the logical way of looking at the matter. But I wonder if it's the correct one. The Shalit case is about something more than a complex cost-benefit analysis. If there is a deal - though of course it's possible that the rumours are mistaken and no such deal will be struck - it may be that such a seemingly lop-sided bargain is actually a side of Israeli strength, not weakness.

In the first place, securing Shalit's release even at an exhorbitant price would honour the covenant Israel makes with every mother in the land: we will take your sons (and daughters) from you for three years in the military but we will always bring them home, one way or another. The psychology of a conscripted army is very different from that of our own all-volunteer army.

Secondly, the greater the price Israel pays for Shalit's release the greater the liklihood that many of those released will return to the armed struggle (though others may not be allowed back into Gaza or the Territories). So would this bargain demonstrate Israeli desperation or something else? Perhaps both. On the one hand, the saga must end eventually; on the other the more prisoners released the more Israel sends a message to the effect that We know this is a high price to pay and we know that it may invite trouble and terrorism and we don't care.

If so then even an unbalanced bargain is a sign of Israel's implacable determination and resolve. Paradoxically, weakness can become strength and the asymmetrical aspect of the conflict can cut both ways and, at different times and in different circumstances, give each side an advantage. "Over-paying" can be a sign of confidence as well as weakness. In a sense, doing so demonstrates a cold indifference to anything Hamas can do. Israel does not expect peace with Hamas anyway and if it must release terrorists to fight another day then Israel will fight and kill or capture them all over again.

If that's the case (and it may not be!) then Israel sends a message that it can take the pain because it has done so before and expects to do so again. Nothing the Palestinians do will change that, nor fracture Israel's commitment to the covenant it makes with its mothers. If the price to be paid is awful then so be it. Israel is strong enough to cope.

Perhaps this is mistaken and securing Shalit's return at any price merely proves the extent to which Israel remains embattled. But I think it's something open to more than one interpretation.

Disclosure: my trip to Israel was paid for by Bicom, the Britain Israel Communications Research Centre.

Filed under: Hamas (10 more articles) , Israel (104 more articles)

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Dr Michael Salt

October 29th, 2010 3:36pm Report this comment

Great article.

On my recent visit to Israel I too was struck not just by the Israeli people's iron resolve, but also by its limitless love for its children.

Which is why the Islamists and their lefty cheerleaders will fail.

ndm

October 29th, 2010 4:53pm Report this comment

The case of Gilad Shalit is indeed strange and awful but it is no less strange and awful that that of the hundreds of Palestinians who have been interned by the Israeli authorities. This conflict will continue as long as decent people continue to succumb to Israeli propaganda and allow Israel to hold a higher regard for the lives of its citizens than the lives of those whose country it occupies. A Palestinian civilian is far more likely to be killed than is an Israeli citizen.

ndm

October 29th, 2010 5:05pm Report this comment

Dr. Michael Salt writes:

-- Which is why the Islamists and their lefty cheerleaders will fail.

The most pernicious and pervasive form of anti-Semitism in the West comes from those who defend Israel and its war crimes BECAUSE Israel is a "Jewish State."

Like so many nationalist projext before it, Zionism has transformed from a good into an evil as it has morphed from the promoting the creation of a national homeland for Jewis into a militant racist ideology.

The Israeli settlers in the Occupied Palestinian Territories are war criminals whose terrorization of Palestians and theft of their birthright is a horrific echo of the treatment of Jews by ordinary German people. The Nazis may have finished off half the Jews. It will be a tragedy if blind support for the neo-Nazism of the settlers ends the promise of Jewish homeland. That, however, is the choice the Israeli people make when they elect militant racist to public office and high positions in their Government. As a nation they elect a government and as a people they need to be held accountable for its militant racism.

DavidDP

October 29th, 2010 5:44pm Report this comment

"The Israeli settlers in the Occupied Palestinian Territories are war criminals whose terrorization of Palestians"

I think you'll find that the totality of settlers aren't war criminals or terrorists, just as the totality of Palestinians aren't.

Avoiding idiotic generalisations is the first step on the road to a solution.

MaxSceptic

October 29th, 2010 6:02pm Report this comment

ndm,

As a Briton, I certainly hope - no, make that 'demand' - that the British government should "hold a higher regard for the lives of its citizens..." than the lives of any other nationals - whatever the political circumstances.

Israelis would have to be suicidal fools (or self-loathing, Western liberal-lefties) to wish anything else from their governments

ndm

October 29th, 2010 6:21pm Report this comment

DavidDP writes:

--think you'll find that the totality of settlers aren't war criminals or terrorists, just as the totality of Palestinians aren't.

The Israeli settlement policy is a canonical vioilation of Article 49 of the Fourth Geneva Convention. As such ALL the settlers are war criminals. Their crime is enabled by the terrorization of the Palestinian people by the State of Israel.

The military occupation of the Palestinian Territories is lawful. However, as the legally-recognized Occupying Power Israel has a legal obligation to protect the Palestinian people - an obligation it has manifestly failed to deliver. This is, of course, why colonization is inherently evil.

DavidDP

October 29th, 2010 7:16pm Report this comment

I'm afraid fools like you on both sides are why peace is still far away.

ndm

October 29th, 2010 7:47pm Report this comment

DavidDP writes:

-- I'm afraid fools like you on both sides are why peace is still far away.

The only side I am on is the side of peace.

This is certainly not true of those who uncritically defend Israel BECAUSE of the Jewish nature of the state of Israel. People like me who condemn Israeli inhumanity are a far better friend to Israel than those who turn a blind eye to its manifest failings. They do not want peace and have no interest in it. It is this type of fool who has aided and abetted Israel's descent into pariah status.

Victor Southern

October 29th, 2010 8:05pm Report this comment

Israel's pariah status as referred to by ndm arises from a lack of oil. Those who have oil can be forgiven all sorts of sins, any type of excess, religious and racial persecutions, massive corruption, genocides.

Edward McLaughlin

October 29th, 2010 9:53pm Report this comment

A very thought-provoking post.

Please let those holding him, allow the safe return of Gilad Shalit to his family.

Israel and the fortitude of its people are an example to us all.

Beefeater

October 30th, 2010 1:58am Report this comment

ndm:

"This conflict will continue as long as decent people continue to succumb to Israeli propaganda and allow Israel to hold a higher regard for the lives of its citizens than the lives of those whose country it occupies."

So you are saying that Israel should not be allowed to swap 1000 living Palestinians for 1 living Israeli? How about a dead one (which has happened in the past)?

You are such a good friend to Israel, I suspect that many of your best friends are Jews.

Sarah AB

October 30th, 2010 10:38pm Report this comment

I share the hope expressed by others for Gilad Shalit's safe return. But one detail struck me as odd in the post: "In the first place, securing Shalit's release even at an exhorbitant price would honour the covenant Israel makes with every mother in the land". Why are fathers not mentioned?

Augustus

October 31st, 2010 2:01am Report this comment

ndm makes a number of accusations against Israel, ruthlessly attacks its government
with the obvious intention of sowing hatred.
His is the stance of a propagandist, not of a man of knowledge. Hamas continuously refuses all letters, parcels, and other things that Gilad's family want to send him,
the Red Cross isn't allowed to visit him, but all the Palestinian terrorists are allowed family visits, access to the Red Cross, and letters and parcels and other requests are all allowed by Israel. Three plus years living in complete isolation, those barbarians refuse to allow anything that resembles even simple humanity.

I would almost like to ask Israel to treat
the Palestinian terrorists in the same way,
isolate them and give them the same treatment that Gilad gets. But, of course, if they did that the international community
would be shouting from the rooftops that you can't do that to prisoners and treat them in such a sub-human fashion. But you don't hear much from the international community when a nineteen year-old Jewish
military service soldier has to live like that year in and year out.