How to Spin Defeat in Oldham

Wednesday, 12th January 2011

Since Labour are all set to prevail in the Oldham and Saddleworth by-election (as was always likely) the government, and specifically the Deputy Prime Minister, will need a line to sell. It's made a little awkward by the fact that this unecessary election is the consequence of a lawsuit brought by the defeated Liberal Democrat candidate but, hey, nothing's perfect and no-one ever said these things would be easy. So what to say? Well...

All by-elections are unusual, unique affairs but this one was even more unusual than most. It was not fought because the incumbent MP had died but because a judge ruled that he had broken electoral law. Regardless of the facts of the Woolas case, it is unsatisfactory when an election result is over-turned by an unelected judge. When this happens no-one should be surprised if voters respond by doubling-down on the same party that won the original contest. They dislike having judges tell them who may and who may not represent them in parliament. If Mr Woolas had been permitted to stand perhaps voters would have reacted badly to him but since he was barred from seeking election, voters were free to thumb their noses at the judge and the system without having to associate themselves with any of the ugliness that characterised May's election in Oldham. No-one should be astonished that they've done so.

A little clunky, perhaps, but the point is this: the government has bungled this by-election badly, failing to set expectations at a sensibly low level. As a consequence the Lib Dem defeat is going to be another embarrassment for a government media operation that rarely seems terribly persuasive or convicncing at the best of times. (cf the nonsense of Alarm Clock Britain.)

Generally speaking whenever someone complains that you have a communications problem what they mean is that you have a policy problem. But this government really does have communications problems too.

Filed under: By-election (31 more articles) , Clegg (60 more articles) , ConLib (118 more articles) , Lib Dems (97 more articles)

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andrew kerins

January 12th, 2011 11:09pm Report this comment

Another tactic would be to draw attention to the (likely) poor turnout - and hope nobody asks who arranged for an election in mid-January.

ndm

January 12th, 2011 11:40pm Report this comment

-- Regardless of the facts of the Woolas case, it is unsatisfactory when an election result is over-turned by an unelected judge.

I don't know why people have this fetish about elections to judicial (and associated criminal justice) positions. I get to vote on Judges all the time and the one thing that marks every election is that I have not even the faintest clue as to why I should favour one over another. The election of Judges brings the appearance of Democracy to what is, in fact, a random selection.

chris andrews

January 12th, 2011 11:49pm Report this comment

Its not about policies in this by election but the breaking of promises more severe and continual than ever before. You would not trust a dog whose once bit you not to do it again so why should we trust the coalition not to keep breaking their manifesto promises on a daily basis.

Colin Cumner

January 13th, 2011 12:06am Report this comment

Yes, whenever politicians complain of a communications problem with the public what it really means is that people have no interest or faith in the espoused policy matter. Perhaps one day we will have a Government that will truly represent the people that elected it - MPs are not at Westminster to push their own particular barrow but the views of the electorate.

normanc

January 13th, 2011 7:02am Report this comment

They'll disingenuously claim that we're in the middle of a big program of cuts so, of course, at the moment people are feeling disappointed but that they're laying the groundwork of a really progressive, socialist spending program that will bear fruit in 3 years time, yadda yadda yadda.

All nonsense but I guess they have to something and the thought of Dave and Nick chanting football like 'we don't know what we're doing' isn't the best message to put out.

Clear Memories

January 13th, 2011 9:19am Report this comment

The only issue of any interest in this election is the level of support for UKIP and the BNP providing, as it should, pointers for the coalition on how to address the EU, immigration and the steadily growing animosity towards Islam.

A significant protest vote towards these parties should strengthen the Tories hand on Europe and make Clegg pause for thought. On immigration, I can't believe either party are in any doubt what is expected of them but neither party has the guts to deliver.

As for Islam, it makes no difference what any party does, its all going to end in tears.

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