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Tuesday 22 May 2012

Who Does David Cameron Want to See Win in Scotland?

Wednesday, 23rd February 2011

That's the question Jeff Breslin asks at Better Nation and, as a bonus, he gets the answer right too: Alex Salmond. In truth, it's not a difficult question no matter how one approaches it.

From a governance perspective the SNP have been modestly underwhelming. This still represents a major advance from the days of the Labour-Lib Dem coalition that preceded them. Nor is there any reason to hope for anything this time around from a Labour party actively hostile to anything that might even be mistaken for a fresh idea. On those grounds alone, a Labour minority ministry in Edinburgh is a dreary prospect.

The Scottish elections in May are likely - nay bound! - to be interpreted in a UK context by much of the London press. They shouldn't be but they will be. Labour advances will be seen as some kind of repudiation of the coalition's policies. Doubtless there may be some voters who feel that way but except in the (admittedly important) matter of perception, a good result for Labour in Scotland will have almost nothing to do with Ed Miliband.

Nevertheless, victory in Scotland will cheer Labour up (though it may also renew their faith in the kind of shop-soiled shibboleths that seem to be Miliband's most treasured possessions) and that alone provides reason for Cameron to hope Salmond sees off Iain Gray.

Nor should Conservatives, north or south of the border, fear the constitutional question. Hell, they should have embraced it in the past and backed Salmond's shelved plans for a referendum on independence. There's little to fear on that front and little reason to be afraid of it in the short to medium term either. That dog's not hunting at the moment.

Ideally, the Tories would find a way to enter coalition with the SNP in Edinburgh. For a number of reasons this remains a leap too far for many, indeed the majority, in both parties. But it remains the sensible division of Scottish politics. Short of that the Tories should hope to be in a position from which they can extract modest concessions from SNP budgets as part of the price for supporting, unofficially of course, a minority SNP ministry.

The question of the long-term future for centre-right voters in Scotland - and which party they should call home - remains a matter for another time...

Filed under: Cameron (227 more articles) , Holyrood 2011 (20 more articles) , Salmond (83 more articles) , Scotland (500 more articles) , Tories (273 more articles)

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Sam Davidson

February 23rd, 2011 2:14am Report this comment

Considering the long roots and history of the Tory party, it doesn't seem entirely outlandish that it should be at home with a Scots-centric, or indeed nationalistic agenda. Let us not forget that "Tory" used to be synonymous with "Jacobite"!

Mark MacGregor

February 23rd, 2011 8:04am Report this comment

The Tory / SNP are hardly natural coalition partners. The SNP is a social democratic, pro-independence party that is opposed to the Tory/Liberal cuts. A more representative coalition of the Scottish people would be the SNP and Labour. If only Labour could be sensible and accept the right of the Scottish people to decide how they governed.

Yes, the Tory's should have backed the SNP plans for a referendum. Not least because it was the desire of a democratically elected government to give the Scottish people a choice in their constitutional future. The true reason Cameron shouldn't worry about a referendum is that the in the event of independence, Labour will be down 41 seats.

Perhaps it would also be better to count real votes instead of prejudging the outcome. Scots are almost certain to vote for fiscal autonomy in the face of Tory cuts. (Scotland is in surplus on this year on Treasury figures). To have 50%+ vote for independence doesn't seem too much of a stretch when current polling is between 35-40%. It's so much easier to vote for a positive (a prosperous independent Scotland) than a negative.

JohnMcDonald

February 23rd, 2011 9:49am Report this comment

"The Scottish elections in May are likely - nay bound! - to be interpreted in a UK context by much of the London press. They shouldn't be but they will be."
Just as this article is written from a London-centric perspective. And why not.. I would expect nothing less, even if it is cringingly underwhelming.

Craig Strachan

February 23rd, 2011 3:07pm Report this comment

And an SNP/Tory coalition would keep just about everybody in Perthshire happy.

A Brown

February 23rd, 2011 3:14pm Report this comment

'If only Labour could be sensible and accept the right of the Scottish people to decide how they governed.'

There is also a fair amount of bad blood on the SNPs part as well as labour so this is a non starter, Alex Salmond's ego is too big.

It's high time the tories in Scotland cut themselves lose from the English party, they need to remodel themseleves as a credible pro enterprise alternative to the SNP and Labour.

They don't need to offer a referendum on independence but maybe one on fiscal autonomy would be a start.

Brond

February 23rd, 2011 4:06pm Report this comment

The real irony is that Labour are set to campaign on an anti-Tory platform, trying to dredge up memories of Thatcher. This is in itself a lie, since the reality of May's election will be that whoever wins will have to work with both the Lib Dems and the Tories. In fact, it may be that the SNP or Labour will need to work with both the Tories and Lib Dems - the reason for this is that both of those parties look set to lose seats, so neither will be big enough to allow a two party coalition in Scotland. So, the next Scottish Parliament will be more consensual, more combatitive, and require a three-way consensus. Menage-a-trois anyone?

andrew kerins

February 23rd, 2011 5:54pm Report this comment

It is possible that David Cameron may give little more thought to the the election for the Scottish Parliament than he gives to the Eurovision Song Contest.

Brian Hill

February 23rd, 2011 5:59pm Report this comment

I agree that defeat for the British Labour & Unionist Party (BLUP) would suite David Cameron as it would be an obvious set back for young Milliband.

I would ask scottish Conservatives reading this to 'lend' us your vote in May in order to defeat BLUP and keep leaders on both sides of the border happy.

Thanking you in advance etc etc

Baron

February 24th, 2011 8:09pm Report this comment

does it matter in any meaningful way for the South who wins in the North? Methinks not.

Alistair Kerr

February 24th, 2011 10:01pm Report this comment

Baron's detachment and objectivity are admirable. He is probably right, as well. However it is more difficult to remain detached if you actually live in Scotland and have to endure whatever emerges from the election.

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