
They're still counting the results of the Irish election but it's clear that, as expected, the story of the day is Fianna Fail's collapse. Enda Kenny, who's not half as youthful as he looks (he's the Father of the House and has been a TD since 1975), will be Taoiseach but the election of 75 or so Fine Gael TD's should not be taken as much of an endorsement of Fine Gael's policies, far less as support for fiscal austerity or, frankly, much else.
Fianna Fail has mislaid half a million votes since they won 78 seats on 41% of the vote in 2007. Fianna Fail's vote has collapsed to 17% of first preferences. Those votes have been more or less equally divided between Fine Gael, Labour and Independents (some of whom are lapsed or disgruntled Fianna Fail men). Fine Gael, on 36%, and Labour have both increased their share of first preferences by eight points. In other words Enda Kenny, starting from a higher base, has been no more persuasive than Eamon Gilmore who, it is generally agreed, ran a complacent, lacklustre campaign that has been mildly disappointing even while delivering Labour's best-ever result. (A failure exemplified by Gilmore's apparent failure - there's a recount underway - to bring in a second candidate in Dun Laoghaire.)
Or, to put it another way, Fine Gael's record-breaking performance is still also mildly underwhelming. There were great successes (taking four of five seats in Kenny's Mayo seat for instance) but there's little substantive difference between winning 65 and 75 seats. They'll still need a coalition and it seems most unlikely - though not impossible - that Shane Ross's band of "centrist independents" will be enough to nudge Fine Gael over the line. So it will have to be a deal with Labour.
Moreover, faced with an open goal Fine Gael was still only able to emulate, effectively, Fianna Fail's 2007 performance. This does not bode well for Kenny. He says he wants to send a message to "the rest of the world" that "Ireland is open for business" and that's fine but renegotiating the bailout deal ("bad for Ireland" and also "bad for Europe") is a tricky proposition. What happens if the Germans say Nein?
On the other hand, some renegotiation is required, not least to cushion the blow when Fine Gael open the books and announce that, actually, everything is even worse than everyone feared. That's one way of lowering expectations but, unfortunately, expectations are pretty low already and inviting people to feel hopeless and despairing is not a particulrly attractive political strategy. Doubtless that's why Kenny has been trying so hard to seem statesmanlike: calm, reassuring, authorative and in control. The trouble is that when you press him on the detail you get the disconcerting sense that there's less there than he and his party would like you to believe.
Still, it's a long way from Fine Gael's nadir when they had barely thirty seats and just three in Dublin. Ther revival in the capital - where they've run neck and neck with Labour - has been vital. Few victories were as symbolic as Paschal Donohoe's topping the poll in Dublin Central - the very heart of Bertie Ahern's base. Fianna Fail's vote in Dublin collapsed to little more than 12% and no fewer than 12 of their 13 Dublin TDs lost their seats. Among the victim, Sean Haughey - the son and grandson of Taoiseachs Charlie Haughey and Sean Lemass. Brian Lenihan, the outgoing Finance Minister, is the sole surviving Fianna Fail TD in Dublin.
The scale of Fianna Fail's collapse in Dublin overshadows the fact that actually its vote held up surprisingly well in much of the rest of the country. As Labour have discovered Dublin is not enough to win but you can't, as the other parties also know, win without it. Still, in much of the country Fianna Fail's vote remained competitive even if nationwide they received precious few transfers. Their problem: Dublin and the young. How many of Fianna Fail's voters will still be alive in four years time?
Yet it would be a mistake to write Fianna Fail off entirely. Some of the missing half million will come home. Some will be scunnered by the coalition's looming unpopularity. Fianna Fail's problem, however, is that it's not likely to be in a position to win any kind of majority any time soon and, for that matter, now lacks obvious coalition partners even if it were in a position to lead a government.
That's for the future. Enda Kenny wanted the ball and now he has it. It would be a mistake to suppose, however, that this is an endorsement of Fine Gael's Five Point Plan. They will claim a mandate and that's fine but it's neither as broad nor as deep a mandate as many may suppose or as the headline figures might indicate. "Better than Fianna Fail" is grand but it's not much of an endorsement, far less a vote of confidence. How could it be when Fien Gael's vote increased no more rapidly than Labour's? The electorate knows two things: it doesn't want Fianna Fail and it's not really sold on any of the possible replacements. That's a cue for more wailing and gnashing of teeth and general lamentation.
Filed under: Fianna Fail (10 more articles) , Fine Gael (5 more articles) , Ireland (195 more articles)
Blogs: Martin Bright | Susan Hill | Melanie Phillips | Coffee House | Faith Based
Actions: Print this article | Email to a friend | Permalink | Comments (24)
Post this entry to: del.icio.us | Digg | Newsvine | NowPublic | Reddit
Advertisement
1 The unions versus the Department for Education — continued - Peter Hoskin
2 Why reason doesn’t apply to the Eurozone - Fraser Nelson
3 Cameron can no longer laugh off Ed - James Forsyth
4 The unions' lazy opposition to schools reform - Peter Hoskin
5 The strains on the Cameron-Hilton relationship - James Forsyth
Andrew Sullivan
Ben Smith
Charles Crawford
Chris Dillow
Claudia Massie
Dan Drezner
Daniel Larison
Dave Weigel
Ezra Klein
French Politics
Global Guerrilas (John Robb)
Henry Porter
James Fallows
Julian Sanchez
Kerry Howley
Kevin Drum
League of Ordinary Gentlemen
Marc Ambinder
Matt Zeitlin
Matthew Yglesias
Megan McArdle
More than Mind Games
Mr Eugenides
Norm Geras
Our Kingdom
Outside the Beltway
Radley Balko
Reason: Hit&Run
Rod Dreher
Samizdata
Scottish Unionist
SNP Tactical Voting
The American Scene
The Plank
Tim Worstall
Toby Harnden
Will Wilkinson
Charlotte Gore
Iain Martin
Hopi Sen
Liberal Vision
Left Back in the Changing Room
1,700 Unusual Christmas Presents Request Catalogue 01935 815 195 Quote SPEC10 for 10% discount www.presentfinder.co.uk
Pimilco based Florist with online ordering Web: www.olivebranch.net Tel: 020 7630 1868 Fax: 020 7233 8844
62 Shore Road, Warsash, Southampton, SO31 9FT Telephone: 01489 578867 Web site: www.ruffs.co.uk
Apollo Magazine | Corporate | Advertising | Privacy | Terms
Spectator, 22 Old Queen Street, London, SW1H 9HP
All Articles and Content Copyright ©2012 by The Spectator | All Rights Reserved
and I'll go to bed at noon
February 28th, 2011 8:46am Report this commentSubstitute Labour for Fianna Fail, the Tories for Fine Gael and the Lib Dems for Labour, and you have a pretty good summary, almost eerily good in parts, of the last UK election.
Vulture
February 28th, 2011 10:39am Report this commentA lot of wasted breath Alex. Ireland, after a brief interregnum of independence, and an even briefer one of prosperity, is once more under colonial rule and facing a future of poverty.
The future of its politics will not be found in your parsing of the minute gains and losses of the Soldiers of Destiny and the Clans of the Gael but among the bankers
of Berlin and Brussels.
Until they get tired of kissing Frau Frumpel's jackboots and jack in the Euro, the Irish will have to get used to business as it used to be: poverty, misery, unemployment and mass emigration.
And they're not even allowed to smoke in the boozers anymore.
dearieme
February 28th, 2011 10:49am Report this comment"once more under colonial rule": aye, but that was a long time ago. Ireland may have had more influence on her own fate while she was part of the Union than she has now. "Ironic", as the young like to say. Anyway, Alex, tell us more about this Enda Everage bloke: I must say that I don't like the cut of his jib.
dearieme
February 28th, 2011 11:41am Report this commentAlex, do you know that The Coffee House webpage often records your blog posts as having no comments, even when they have several? Set your IT leprechauns onto it, that's what I recommend.
Tony Roche
February 28th, 2011 11:55am Report this commentVulture - Dearieme
Lad lads lads!
The Anglo Irish war ended nearly 90 years ago. Try not be such very spiteful losers after all this time. Jolly unsporting of you I say. And Vulture - don't be such a repetitive crushing bore - there's a good chappie. It really is time to join the real world you know in 1911 - sorry, I mean of course 2011.
The Republic of Ireland is listed 11th most prosperous country on earth (see London based Legatum Prosperity Index for 2010)
As for Germany........ how, I ask you do you expect to keep such a great people down ? Maybe your American masters have the answer..........
Auf Wiedersehen - agus slan go foill.
Austin Barry
February 28th, 2011 1:49pm Report this commentHere in the brittle, early afternoon sunshine of Dublin there is a sense that the malign and corrupt influences of the Catholic Church and now Fianna Fail have been broken forever. Tough times ahead certainly, but we are at least free of the evil enemies within.
dearieme
February 28th, 2011 2:16pm Report this comment"very spiteful losers": oh come now. Musing on the paradoxes of life is hardly spiteful.
Vulture
February 28th, 2011 2:22pm Report this commentTony R:
Look, let's stop abusing each other and
have a rational debate. I agree that Britain misruled Ireland very badly and that your independence was heroically fought for and well deserved. OK?
What I cannot understand is why you have tamely surrendered your hard-won sovereigenity to a bunch of unelected bankers.
If you can make a rational defence of that without invoking Soloheadberg, Bachelors Quay, and that grand old paedophile Sir Roger Casement I'd like to hear it. I really would.
For once, this self-inflicted wound has nothing to do with Anglo-Irish history.
You can't blame the Brits for the bog the Soldiers of Destiny have made of your lovely country.
Austin Barry
February 28th, 2011 2:34pm Report this commentVulture at 2.22
"You can't blame the Brits for the bog the Soldiers of Destiny have made of your lovely country."
Wanna bet? Many locals place entirely unwarranted emphasis on the 'Anglo' part of the 'Anglo-Irish Bank'.
But this is a constant theme in Ireland. A couple of years ago I was complaining about the pot-holes in the road to Ballyboughal and was advised that, no, it wasn't the fault of Fingal County Council but of the Brits using inferior materials nearly 100 years ago.
Commentator
February 28th, 2011 3:10pm Report this commentAnd I'll Go to bed about noon has it about right. This is a carbon copy almost of David Cameron's non-victory in the UK General Election last year which Alex Massie tried to spin as a great and glorious victory.....even though UK Labour did better than Fianna Fail have done.
In2minds
February 28th, 2011 6:10pm Report this commentVulture, or anyone looking for a rational debate here I'd say forget it. As Austin Barry suggests blaming others is a way of life in Ireland.
Remember the Celtic tiger? This now extinct animal once roamed the financial world unchallenged by any predator. So what happened, what did it eat and why did it die? Well first a quick look backwards. The romantics would have you believe that Ireland has always lived under the yoke of the British. And if you are looking for a nation of romantics then look no further than the Irish. Also, if hyperbole could be exported then the whole Irish population would be fabulously wealthy. Put the two together and you get the foundation of the ongoing theme 'Brits bad, Irish good'. Using this as a platform, umpteen novels and plays have been written and, ironically, some have made the authors rich.
But going back to the question above about the Celtic tiger, "what did it eat", one can't but help come to the conclusion that a staple of the diet was EU subsidy money. This just flowed and flowed into Ireland. Proof of this was the angry outburst from French President Sarkozy when at first the Irish refused in their initial referendum to endorse the Lisbon Treaty. Seen from Sarkozy's point of view he was right, the Irish had been "stuffing their faces" at the expense of others. Choose your friends with care?
And as the song says - "there could be trouble ahead", and there was! But who to blame?
Tony Roche
March 1st, 2011 7:44am Report this commentI realize fully that it will make not an iota of difference to the many closed minds here but I will point out a few truths anyway. While the article relates to Ireland it might just as well have been addressed to ANY country in the economic maelstrom presently engulfing the entire globe. But the underlying issue here is hostility to the EU, and not internal Irish politics and economics. First, a bit of background information.
1. Ireland’s economic boom to crash was caused by literally a few dozen bankers, developers and politicians working hand in glove in an orgy of greed. A small, and until recently parochial country like Ireland lent itself very well to such a development. The people knew nothing about it until it was to late. Almost 2,500 years ago Plato spoke out against greed and corruption in Athens. “Plus ça change, plus c'est la même chose” !!
2. During the 1960s Ireland established a national network of tertiary education institutions resulting in a well educated young workforce. This attracted huge investment from overseas, in particular from the USA, where about 40% (!) of major corporations are Irish American controlled. Fact. A highly efficient Industrial Development Authority, (with some inevitable bad decisions along the way) spearheaded this major influx of investment. Today 8 of the top 10 global technology companies and 15 of the top 25 medical devices firms on earth are well established in Ireland. We produce enough beef each year to feed 30 million Europeans. And perhaps above all - we are a stable, cohesive, and genuinely democratic society. These are indisputable and quite remarkable achievements coming off an abysmal low base start.
3. Much of what I have outlined in point 2 above was achieved ever BEFORE we joined the EEC as it was then. And yes, I can see the anti Irish element here salivating already about what may happen if we lose our low corporate tax regime.
4. Unlike the English we Irish are STILL overwhelmingly pro European, and contrary to some commentators here who flatter themselves otherwise, we are firmly focused on Europe and the wider world and not just on England – albeit you are still an important trading partner. We are rightly committed to a Europe of cooperation rather than decimation (as in the past). And WE have no xenophobic, jingoistic, or other baggage from the past handicapping us.
5. For the record I believe that Britain should leave the EU, and let those of us who are interested in the future rather than the past get on with this great, well meaning and hopeful enterprise. You English would have much to contribute no doubt if you could overcome the past, but pigs might fly. And your steadfast hostility to Europe and talk of “loss of sovereignty” etc, beggars belief given your very murky colonial past. We are all compromised economically in the modern world. But I will take heed of “loss of sovereignty” talk if or when there are foreign troops and flags on Dublin streets and buildings, and I am searched and questioned at military roadblocks........as indeed I have been in NI.
6. Humankind has painfully evolved from caves to nation states. The next stage is surely continental unity. And with threats mounting rapidly both internally and externally we Europeans have need of each other’s cooperation and goodwill as never before. The EU functions well. It has already achieved much - and FAULTS (it is evolving to quickly), growing pains and all, will continue to thrive. And long may it do so.
Slan libh go leir (Irish for Goodbye – literally “health to you all”)
Commentator
March 1st, 2011 10:43am Report this commentTony Roche, some of what you say makes sense but the Irish knew exactly what was going on during the Celtic Tiger years. the house prices were beyond belief. For many years, Dublin has been Cronyville sur Liffey with a self-perpetuating cast of dodgy political and financial dealers oiling the wheels of crony capitalism and believing their own bullshit. If you think that the EU is doing well (when it is basically sclerotic, anti-democratic and bankrupt), that simply shows how far some in Ireland have still to go before they learn that crony capitalism only enriches the insiders; and that not all the ills of this world can be laid at the door of the Brits. And maybe there would have been fewer NI roadblocks if Ireland had not been playing de facto host to one of the most sadistic terrorist organisations of the post-war world.
Tony Roche
March 1st, 2011 12:15pm Report this commentCommentator
I recommend that you reread point 1 in my admittedly overlong post. You imply that the average person in the Republic was privy to what went on among the rich and powerful. But since the crumbs from the banquet table were satisfying enough (full employment, regular overseas holidays etc), nothing was done about it until the bubble burst. We all have 20/20 vision in retrospect. We Irish love a party and to paraphrase “It’s better to have partied and lost than never to have partied at all” Now we have a major hang over, but life goes on. Hopefully we have learned from it – at least until the next time !
Point 4 of my last post covers the EU. I have nothing to add or subtract here from that. At no point do I blame “the Brits.” for all the ills of the world. Would you like me to do that.......... ?
Finally, as for roadblocks in NI, thank God they are finally in the dustbin of history where they belong. And who knows what further justice the rapidly unfolding events there may bring.
Slan leat.
Commentator
March 1st, 2011 12:54pm Report this commentTony, I don't imply that ordinary people knew the precise details of what was going on behind the scenes. However, there was wilful and widespread self-delusion and the cocky bravado that goes with it. It was obvious that there was a bubble built on hype, subsidy and cheap credit. We can all trade cliches (e.g. yours about the Irish at a party) but I spent a lot of time in Ireland in 2005-6 and my abiding thought was: "If it looks too good to be true it is too good to be true".
Vulture
March 1st, 2011 12:57pm Report this comment@Tony Roche:
Thanx for your thoughtful response ( and I mean that). As Commentator says, much of what you write is valid. Some is not.
A few responses:
>Ireland may be democratic, but its politics are spectacularly corrupt and have been so since the days of Charlie Haughey if not before.
Moreover, it is still a feudal and dynastic state with sons inheriting the seats their fathers wore. (eg. The son of Haughey was one of the Soldiers of Destiny who lost out on Friday last). Whatevrer their faults Blair, Brown and even Dave made their own way in politics. Oreland is half gangster state, and half still a Papal fiefdom. A funny sort of democracy I think. Anyhow, you Mr Roche clearly feel at home in the EU - one of the world's greatest anti-democratic, corrupt and criminal constructions. You don't work for them perchance?
> I don't think the Irish - apart from your good self - are as pro-EU as they were and when Frumpel and Sarko apply the squeeze they will become progressively less so. Don't forget they rejected Lisbon in a referendum and only accepted it when the squeeze was applied.
> You suggest that England or Britain is backward looking and harping on past glories. Ahem...couldn't the same be just a teensy weensy bit true of Ireland, a nation of poets and political nostalgics rather than nuclear physicists I'd suggst.
> Finally, as a person who loves Ireland and knows a good deal of its history, can I suggest that you have an emotional and exaggerated hatred of England. Dev has been dead an awfully long time. Why is it fine and dandy to be an Irish nationalist but racist and nasty to be an English one?
Craig Strachan
March 1st, 2011 2:59pm Report this commentTony Roche: "And WE have no xenophobic, jingoistic, or other baggage from the past handicapping us."
True, you have just booted the "Soldiers of Destiny" in favor of the "Family of the Gael" - but didn't "Ourselves Alone" also do quite well in the election?
Nansen
March 1st, 2011 3:45pm Report this commentMoving from the world's most expensive capital, Oslo, to Dublin, in 2001-2006, Irish property prices were a shock even in 2001, chiefly because the standard of apartments - old and new - were laughable compared to Norway's. Paying for a Med castle and getting a Dublin shack, your hairdresser bying up Budapest, your taxidriver exploring the world, and the constant buzz, 'Ireland is now the richest country in the world', the Irish enjoyed the party and deserve the hangover. So will the Norwegians, one day.
In2minds
March 1st, 2011 4:06pm Report this comment@Tony Roche - March 1st, 2011 7:44am -
"You English would have much to contribute no doubt if you could overcome the past, but pigs might fly".
Yes indeed perhaps PIGS might fly, but only after these countries have fixed their banks. And to do so will take a lot of help from a variety of countries. Some of these helpers, like the Germans, also have a 'past', tip, don't mention the war, even though you did your best to stay neutral. And no, we are NOT all "compromised economically", again using the dear Germans as our example they think they are ahead of us all, though the US and the Chinese would disagree! And remember the German currency and their banks have their own murky past. So this is a subject they know well.
Also it beggars belief that their well known lust for discipline, which is how they got out of their troubles, won't rub off on you. I wish you well on your journey.
Gute route!
andrew kerins
March 1st, 2011 5:28pm Report this commentIt is fairly clear what Enda Kenny is going to do;
cut the bloated public sector as much as his Labour partners will let him,
try to negotiate a better deal from Europe over Ireland's debt,
hope that this debt is not as crippling as David McWilliams and others say it is.
What he should do - and probably wont;
rethink Ireland's role in Europe.
After 35 years, the 'terms of trade' have moved decisively against Ireland.
Until the Irish accept this they are unlikely to make much progress dealing with their economic problems.
Tony Roche
March 2nd, 2011 12:47am Report this commentHerewith a collective response to reactions to my post at 7.44 am 01/03.
Greed and corruption are universal in this world. It has never been otherwise as we all know – or should, so it is futile to bang on at me about how it exists it in Ireland, or in the EU for that matter. Black pots and kettles spring to mind. Ireland is far from perfect, and I have no illusions about its many faults. But my views are out of concern and not contempt as is obvious from some posters.
Corruption etc are of course relative, but once again it is futile to point the finger at any country. Having said that relative corruption indexes are widely available and from memory Nigeria and Pakistan are rated the most corrupt countries on earth. Such indexes (statistics) are not flawless but they at least remove the element of emotional reaction and subjectivity from any discussion. Google “Corruption Perception Index2010 ” for some objective assessment of most countries.
I have no intention of opening an assortment of cans of worms except to say this. English nationalism has its own agenda and it is not for me to comment one way or another on it. Nor have I. I am simply indifferent to it, unless it oversteps itself and interferes in Ireland’s best interests. As for forgetting the past, the past is still present in Ireland with the running sore of NI, which thankfully appears to finally be healing. When it does both of these islands can perhaps finally move on from the past in friendship and cooperation with our cousins in our great European civilization.
Slan go foill.
Craig Strachan
March 2nd, 2011 6:43pm Report this commentTony Roche: "English nationalism has its own agenda and it is not for me to comment one way or another on it. Nor have I. I am simply indifferent to it, unless it oversteps itself and interferes in Ireland’s best interests"
Yes, I feel the same way about Irish nationalism: all fine and dandy, except when it oversteps and inteferes in the best interests of Northern Ireland. But to be fair it seems pretty well contained these days, so it's all good!
Tony Roche
March 2nd, 2011 10:31pm Report this commentCraig Strachan
Irish nationalist views extends way beyond the border that presently divides Ireland, and is shared by about 50% of the people within that jurisdiction, making a nonsense of your term “overstepping”.
I don’t intend to enter into political or demographic discussion with you or anyone else here on the issue, except to say that the inexorable tide of history is rapidly making your comment obsolete.
Peace to you and yours – agus slan leat.
Craig Strachan
March 3rd, 2011 5:51pm Report this commentTony Roche: "I don’t intend to enter into political or demographic discussion with you or anyone else here on the issue, except to say that the inexorable tide of history is rapidly making your comment obsolete."
Ah, yes, that "Nationalist majority" that has been only FIVE YEARS AWAY for the past thirty years! Heard it...
Back to top