Gaddafi's Warning to Other Dictators: Shoot First & Shoot Them All

Thursday, 20th October 2011

Now that Colonel Gaddafi is dead, there's a lot stuff flying about Twitter along the lines of Are you watching Mr Mugabe/Assad/Ahmadinejad? I'm sure they are. Few people are likely to mourn Gaddafi's death but one should not, I fear, suppose that his eclipse weakens other distatorial regimes or vastly emboldens their respective opposition movements. It would be grand if this were so but foolish to presume it must be.

Indeed, one can plausibly argue that a quite different message has been sent by this Libyan uprising and that this message warns other ghastly regimes to crack down harder and faster to ensure that dissent is suppressed before it has time to build. In other words: Gaddafi's fate is certainly exemplary but it may actually work against reform. Perhaps this is because it is hard to have just a little reform; once that door is opened there's little chance of closing it. So better, from the dictator's perspective, not to open it at all.

Nevertheless, that's not something the Libyan rebels or their western supporters need concern themselves with. Since I was sceptical about the wisdom and worth of NATO's Libyan mission one should admit that it has gone rather better than I thought it might. Score one for David Cameron and Nicolas Sarkozy. Even so, the battle is not won yet since Libya will, one suspects, need considerable assistance for years to come if this is to be something other than a temporary triumph.

Nor, actually, does this conflict mean Blair's government was wrong to try and bring Libya in from the cold. 2011 is not 2001 and the UK (and US's) interest now is not necessarily the same as it was then. This is an elementary point that many people like to ignore. Nevertheless, there it is. Supporting - or tolerating - bastards until such time as that support becomes impossible or counter-productive is not an especially noble practice but you can't have everything. Of course, it helps to know when to jump ship too.

Filed under: Cameron (227 more articles) , Foreign Policy (318 more articles) , Iran (145 more articles) , Libya (295 more articles) , War (157 more articles)

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Scary Biscuits

October 20th, 2011 4:41pm Report this comment

The real cautionary tale is not Libya but Egypt.

The Egyptian leader bowed to the inevitable much sooner but instead of being allowed to retire in peace he was hauled back for trials and faces execution.

Nobody wants to die, even mad dictators. This is (or should be) the deal: go peacefully and we'll let you retire with a pension; hang on and as you murder your people so they will murder you.

ndm

October 20th, 2011 4:57pm Report this comment

-- Nor, actually, does this conflict mean Blair's government was wrong to try and bring Libya in from the cold. 2011 is not 2001 and the UK (and US's) interest now is not necessarily the same as it was then.

Although the obvious - and unofortunate - lesson to be learned here is that a dictator should never give up his development of nuclear weapons.

Edward McLaughlin

October 20th, 2011 5:23pm Report this comment

"...Libya will, one suspects, need considerable assistance for years to come if this is to be something other than a temporary triumph."

Why will it?

Can't we just let the people of that nation take it from here? They seem to be very determined in their efforts, and in that, they appear better placed than us to shape their future.

Tara

October 20th, 2011 7:59pm Report this comment

"Are you watching Mr Mugabe/Assad/Ahmadinejad?" why should Ahmadinejad watch it?! Iran's dictator is Khamenei not Ahmadinejad.

Baron

October 20th, 2011 11:21pm Report this comment

Alex, you right, the tyrants may indeed crack harder, but if they do, the opposition will harden, too, with the help of the international crowd with sanctions and stuff, the hardening may lead to an implosion still, even if it takes longer, what underpins such outcomes is the desire of the mostly young unwashed to have a say, it may get hijacked by the forces of darkness, but it sets a precedence, over time the countries cannot but adopt something akin to democracy, past evidence backs them up.

Styria

March 15th, 2012 5:01pm Report this comment

I believe that Cameron (Obama and Sarkozy) is (are) the real dictator(s) - if he (they) were killed, it is unlikely that somebody would miss them. Further, their demise, would send a strong message to other dictators. Of course, this kind of success, might only be a dream. However, who knows?

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