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Tuesday 22 May 2012

Alex Salmond's Inevitability Strategy

Apparently it is all but compulsory for London-based observers to note that Alex Salmond is "wily". Those possessing an Anglo-Scots dictionary may add that he's "sleekit". By this they really mean he's not a numpty and this, given the pressures of the times and all of that, is as much of a compliment as any minister can hope to receive. Alex Salmond is an intelligent politician who is often on manoevres. Shockerooni!

Be that as it may, it is evident that the First Minister appreciates the importance of image-projection and, accordingly, is doing his utmost to present Scottish independence as a destination that's as logical as it is inevitable. It is about building momentum which in time becomes self-sustaining.

Salmond's demeanour in parliament and at Edinburgh Castle today would, in a better world, persuade English-based journalists to drop their Braveheart fixation. This is not a give me liberty or give me death type of struggle, far from it. In general, you see, Salmond wants to strip emotion from the debate, not pour it onto the pyre. That's how the balance of the argument has changed: increasingly it is Unionism that tugs the heart. Nationalism need not bother so much with such sentiment since every Scot - including those in the Sir Walter Scott school - is a nationalist to some degree; Salmond's task is to persuade them to be just a little bit more nationalist than before.

Hence the desire to make it seem as quiet and calm a process as possible while making it quite clear that Scotia will brook no meddling nonsense from London, no matter how well-intentioned that interference might be nor how much we look forward to First Footing our neighbours in the New Year.

In this respect, the most important part of Salmond's Hugo Young Lecture was this:

It is worth remembering that in 1999 comparatively few additional powers were granted to the parliament in Scotland that had not previously been devolved to the Secretary of State for Scotland.

The shift from administrative to legislative devolution was, of course, momentous in itself. But it still left Scotland with fewer powers than the German Lander, most American states, parts of Spain such as the Basque Country or Catalonia, or, within these islands, the Isle of Man.

The economy is currently where this is felt most deeply.

Put in those terms, who could be opposed to more powers for Holyrood? True, we might and will argue about the detail but the principle of the thing is clear enough to command hefty support: if Manitoba, Maine and Catalonia can enjoy all this why cannot Scotland which is more of a nation than any of these or, for that matter, any part of Germany or Belgium or wherever else you care to look for your international comparison of choice?

 

There is, of course, a grave possibility that such additional powers - whether arrived at via Devo Max or independence - would be seriously misused but that's a different matter. Here, however, the independence argument doubles back on itself as emotion jostles with logic for the right to play the leading part: surely we can't be that bad or so uniquely hopeless we cannot be trusted to look after our own affairs? At the very least, it seems reasonable for Scotland's parliament to be as empowered as the Commonwealth of Kentucky. That's one powerful case for Devo Max. If granted, the matter then becomes whether fully-fledged independence is necessary. That's an even money proposition, I fancy, and one with which Mr Salmond is happy to take his chances.

Being able to ask the independence question necessarily makes it more likely there will be a vote for independence. The SNP's victory or, to be more precise, the scale of their victory changed the rules of engagement. It gave Salmond his mandate (albeit on a low turnout) and fair-minded types (if you can find them) will recognise how this has elevated Salmond's status which, in turn, makes it more plausible he will eventually get the result he craves. (Pause, again, to note how different matters might have been had the Unionist parties agreed to a referendum before it came to all this. Ach well.)

Salmond and Nicola Sturgeon each made a point of welcoming representatives of the international press to Edinburgh today. And why not? Like the First Minister's recent trips to China and Dubai it all helps foster the impression that Scotland is a real and proper country ready to take its place in the body of the kirk like any other real and proper country. Image is not everything but it counts for quite a lot. Salmond and his team appreciate this and they know the importance of projecting, as calmly and reasonably as possible, an aura of inevitability.

Of course it ain't actually inevitable but the First Minister is making a braw fist of making it seem so.

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