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A political hurricane

James Forsyth

Sunday, 31st August 2008

It seems rather Jo Mooreish to be discussing the political implications of Hurricane Gustav as people are forced to evacuate their homes but with the hurricane expected to make landfall as the Republican convention gets under way and with the legacy of Katrina there is an unavoidable political angle to this story. As Fraser notes, the Republicans cannot in the current circumstances have a typical convention. It would be wrong both stylistically and substantively to have speakers indulging in partisan rhetoric as a natural disaster strikes.

At first blush, this appears to put John McCain at a further disadvantage. While the Democrats had four days of wall to wall media coverage and Barack Obama delivered his speech to 80,000 people in a stadium and 38 million watching on TV, the Republicans are going to be presented in split screen with a hurricane and John McCain might well deliver his speech not in the convention hall but via-video link.

But the news is not as bleak as it first appears for the Republicans. The storm gives McCain an opportunity to demonstrate the crisis-management skills he would bring to the White House and to present himself as a figure who puts country above partisan interests. Also, preventing a like for like comparison between McCain and Obama’s convention speeches is no bad thing for McCain. While avoiding pictures of the Republican convention cheering Bush and Cheney to the rafters is probably a good thing for the McCain campaign. On top of this, the current situation offers the GOP the chance to show a different side to it than the caricature of it that is sometimes presented in the media; delegates preparing care packages on the convention floor would be a compelling image.

Perhaps, the biggest political effect of the hurricane is that it has slowed the race to define Sarah Palin. There are limits to how hard the Democrats or the press can go after her in the current circumstances. Equally, the McCain campaign’s roll-out of her is no longer dominating the news as it was on Friday. On the one hand, this focus on a natural disaster emphasises executive skills and experience, something that Palin is the only person on either ticket to really have. On the other, the gap gives the media and the Democrats more time to research her record and could lead to a flood of questions about various mini-scandals in Alaska being dumped on her as soon as the hurricane has passed.

Hurricane Gustave is, like the Russian invasion of Georgia, a reminder that events are going to impact the presidential race between now and November 4th in a way that no one can confidently predict. Which campaign reacts better to these unwanted surprises is going to play a crucial role in deciding who comes out on top on November 4th

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THX1138

August 31st, 2008 9:35pm

James really is scrapping the bottom of the barrel to spin a positive out of this.

Gil

August 31st, 2008 9:40pm

The nightmare scenario for the poor victims of this storm: both sets of candidates descend on the area with PR and media in tow and proceed to help with buckets and boats. Obama starts giving speeches to bemused locals, McCain directs the operation. Then Bush arrives (he is still president). Then the piece de resistance: Matt Frei from the BBC pops up in HIS boat and starts emoting.

This scenario beats the film 'It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World' hands down.

Hal

August 31st, 2008 11:05pm

The Republican Party is more divided than the Democrats are, which is a refreshing change. The less convention there is, the less unifying can take place. If McCain can't or won't speak to the delegates in person in a compelling way, that has to be a loss for him.

But not having Bush or Cheney speak has to come as a relief to the McCain campaign.

Verity

September 1st, 2008 4:03pm

Well, there's a first tinme for everything, and I agree 100 per cent with James Forsythe. I have to go and lie down.

Gil - Thanks for your over-imaginative post, but Bobby Jindal will not be allowing anyone into New Orleans. In addition to which, there wouldn't be any "bemused locals" (you mean 7th generation welfare recipients don't have TV?).

The wonderful Bobby Jindal, who is my new hero since around two months ago issued a mandatory evacuation order and laid on convoys of buses and trains for those without their own transport. The whole thing has been managed.

Last time, Mayor Nagins laid on 300 buses and left them in the parking lot as the water rose over their wheels. Instead he created the nightmare of the Superdome.

(A little side issue: A 17 year old kid, a black boy, got into where the buses were parked, found where they kept the keys, stole a set and drove the bus out of the parking lot to where he knew there were people stranded. He said he would take old people and people with young children.

(Then he hit the highway for Houston. Twice he had to stop because they were running out of gas, and he had a whipround. On the second occasion, the y didn't have enough cash left to give and he stopped traffic and asked for donations, which people gave him, of course.

(He got his entire busload safety to Houston and to the Astrodome, which had been set up (properly) for refugees.

(I hope some corporation spotted that boy and is sponsoring his college education because that is one hell of a motivated and resourceful person.)