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Peter Hoskin

Pete suggests


A draw was a good result for the front-runner

Saturday, 27th September 2008

Having watched last night’s debate properly and read the press coverage of it, it seems pretty clear that it was a draw. There was no ‘global test’ moment for either candidate and neither of them managed to put the other on the canvas.

Obama should be a lot happier with this result than McCain. First of all he is ahead so a debate that doesn’t change the dynamics of the race suits him. Secondly this was a debate on foreign policy and national security—admittedly, the first third of it was taken up with the financial crisis—which is McCain’s strongest suit. If Obama was going to have a moment where he came across as unready to lead it was most likely to be in this debate. McCain got off a string of good jabs at Obama and nearly had him on the ropes about his previous statement that he would meet with foreign leaders without preconditions but Obama managed to get through the foreign policy section with minimal harm done.

McCain must be careful not to let his frustration about Obama get the better of him. McCain repeatedly said that Obama ‘didn’t understand’ various aspects of foreign policy but he was telling not showing the audience this. While when Obama was criticising McCain’s judgment on Iraq, McCain was almost jumping up and down behind his podium.

With Obama’s lead ticking upwards in the polls, McCain really does need a game-changer at some point soon. Last night Obama knew that he had to take no risks and just stop McCain from landing a hay-maker on him. If Obama carries on like this the debates will be a draw and it’ll still be advantage Obama as polling day looms ever nearer.


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Verity

September 27th, 2008 4:10pm

Frankly, James, your foolish presumptuousness astonished me.

"McCain must be careful not to let his frustration about Obama get the better of him."

A prisoner of war who endured five and a half years in soul destroying conditions, and endured torture - that is FIVE AND ONE HALF LONG YEARS in a tiny cell knowing he would be taken out and tortured at any time it suited his captors; and a man who, with heart-breaking honour, refused early release offered to him as the son of an admiral, stating that he would stay and be released with his fellow inmates, does not need lessons in patience from a foreign journalist who has never endured anything worse than a long wait for an elevator.

How dare you?

Comment if you must, but do not let the thought enter your head that you are in a position to counsel John McCain. I'm guessing he began his post-military career with his election to the US Congress around the time you were born?

TrevorsDen

September 27th, 2008 4:45pm

These things always end in draws. The finance crisis will do for the Republicans because it landed on their watch - and this after all the whoo ahh on Iraq. No one is thinking of iraq now. The seeds were sown in the Clinton era of forcing banks to give mortgage to 'the underprivileged.

On radio Nixon was thought to have beaten Kennedy.

By Gordon Browns rationale of course no one should have voted for the inexperienced Kennedy. Indeed its only thanks to rigging by Mayor Daley that Kennedy did in fact 'win'. No wonder Brown is such a fan of Hyannis Port.

derek

September 27th, 2008 4:57pm

Verity - are you John McCain? You sound so similar. Condescending and spurious. James is a reporter. He can make a critique.
John was in prison. We are endlessly told this. Can we move on? Barack had no Dad for more years but it's not part of the debate. Lighten up and look at the polls.

James

September 27th, 2008 5:23pm

Verity - McCain's courage during his captivity as a younger man in Vietnam is not in question.

However, there is a huge difference between keeping oneself sane whilst being tortured in a cell and putting in a good performance in a presidential debate. The two aren't the same and the former doesn't in anyway prepare or help with the latter.

For that reason McCain will continue to seek advice from his advisors (none of whom were locked in a cell in Hanoi to the best of my knowledge) and will no doubt be given unsolicited advice from journalists like James - which he can choose to listen to or ignore as he sees fit.

If anything he probably does need a bit of help connecting with the younger audience as you helpfully point out he has been around for quite a while now.

Whether he needs blog comment attack dogs like you is another question. As a Palin admirer - you must have been very disappointed with her performance on CBS a few days ago. Your gushing tributes to her when she was first announced are looking a little misguided now. But all will be revealed in November.

Craig Strachan

September 27th, 2008 5:28pm

The old geezer was by turns grumpy (as when repeatedly resorting to the you-just-don't understand put down) and boring (when reminiscing at length about his travels and all the Important People he has met in his loooooooong career).

Obama was cool.

Verity

September 27th, 2008 5:39pm

James isn't a reporter. We all had the report on the results hours ago, so if that were the case, there would have been no reason for James to re-announce it. James is an analyst. That is a different discipline.

I don't take orders from strangers, or anyone else for that matter, except if a policeman holding a weapon says, "Halt", so I'll be foregoing your adolescent instruction to "lighten up".

Obama's a phony. Sometimes he thinks there are 57 states in the Union, and sometimes he thinks there are 48 plus Alaska and Hawaii. As Alaska, where he was born, and Hawaii have been been states since before he was born, where did he come by this eerie misinformation and why did he not know it was wrong?

Why did he cancel his visit to wounded American troops at the military hospital in Germany after he was told he couldn't trail his media entourage through the wards with him? A very weird patriot, hein?

Ralph

September 27th, 2008 5:49pm

James,

The first rule in a debate is do yourself no harm, which both managed to do. The second is probably to push your message about your opponent which McCain did better than Obama.

After a bad week to ten days for McCain to come out having not gaffed, and having scored some points (if not many) against his opponent is a good result.

Obama knew this debate would be hard, prepared heavily, and still didn't do that well. What will happen when he feels he's on safer territory?

That said I suspect that when, how, and what sort of deal is done this weekend will have a much greater effect on things than a debate.

Augustus

September 27th, 2008 6:44pm

There are innumerable voters who may thrill to the sound of brash, clever talking outsiders vowing change. The hard truth is that in order to succeed, presidents need to work with, and win over, those congressional leaders who enjoy the political reality of repeated re-election in safe seats, as well as powerful interest groups. It is only the competent insiders who can actually get anything significant done. Ergo, a vote for Obama is a wasted vote.

Verity

September 27th, 2008 6:53pm

Interesting if true ... a little girl in Hong Kong asked her grandfather why Obama was texting while he was talking. Given that children are immersed in the texting culture, she would have recognised it, whereas an adult would have just thought, if they thought anything, that he was fidgeting ...

A couple of people who DVD'd it are going to rerun it with the sound off and just watch Obama.

Gilbert Belwether

September 27th, 2008 7:02pm

"Sometimes he thinks there are 57 states in the Union"?! Verity, are you seriously claiming Obama doesn't know the number of US states? (On the other hand, if "sometimes he thinks there are 48 plus Alaska and Hawaii" he is at least right some of the time.)

Marian C

September 27th, 2008 7:19pm

I too have watched the debate which I have to say I thought John McCain did very well; he appeared to be cool, calm and collected and showed himself to be a true statesman who spoke with a true passion. I did not see “The old geezer was by turns grumpy” as Craig Strachan so rudely suggested’; did we watch the same debate Craig? I have to admit, I am certainly no admirer of Obama, personally, I‘ve always thought the man to be a total idiot, but to be fair, he actually did better than I thought he would in this debate. However, it was quite apparent that John McCain had got under Obama’s skin, more than once, and that made him (Obama), look decidedly uncomfortable and annoyed several times; not exactly what you would expect from a man who wants to be President. My overall opinion of this debate was that it was good in some places but rather lack lustre in others.

CG

September 27th, 2008 7:28pm

McCain has the look of a man saying cheese and being stabbed in the back at the same time.

Nick Kaplan

September 28th, 2008 12:15am

Gilbert Belwether; If you don't believe Verity about Obama's not knowing the number of states just vist this link:

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws

This gaffe is far worse than any I have seen from Bush.

Hysteria

September 28th, 2008 12:31am

McCain did ok. Obama looked and sounded good. The texting thing, if true, will be interesting but will not get reported by the msm so will not affect the opinions.

Palin was truly awful on CBS,the Republicans will get the blme for Wall Stret.

McCains trump card was always "look how well we are doing in Iraq" - and Iraq does not register as an issue in the polls.

Sad to say - but I think the charlatan in chief will be the next leader of the USA - a truly scary prospect....

James

September 28th, 2008 1:20am

oh come on Nick - the gaff where Bush promised to do more harm to his civilians than Al Qaeda was beyond anything that these two candidates could aspire to.

Verity

September 28th, 2008 2:22am

Thanks for the link, Nick Kaplan, because it's even worse than I thought.

Obama is sure he has visited 57 states and has one left to go ... but wait! then he tacks on Alaska and Hawaii, making 60 states in all - although he had previously, in another speech, referred to Alaska and Hawaii as non-states. As they both were admitted to statehood the year before he was born, he has never known Alaska and Hawaii as anything but states.

You can tell he's just devoted to the United States. What a patriot!

Also, Gilbert Belwether, all the candidates traditionally release all their medical records to the media, as part of the openness of American democracy. Joe Biden has released his full records. As has Sarah Palin. As has John McCain. ... err, Obama sent in a doctor's note saying he was fine.

And what was that problem with his birth certificate, which has never really been cleared up?

Why is it that every problem with the legitimacy of a candidacy points to Obama? Why didn't he release his full medical records, if 71-year old John McCain could release his and new mother Sarah Palin could release hers in all their intimate detail?

Why is there always some problem with him? His early education. His religion. His birth certificate. His health records.

Verity

September 28th, 2008 2:29am

Obama sometimes looks surprised and uncertain of himself because he was chosen to run by the group, including William Ayers, that's behind him. That is why he sometimes looks surprised about small things, and gets facts wrong.

From day one I - and many other people on the net simultaneously - have described him as the Manchurian Candidate.

Gilbert Belwether

September 28th, 2008 2:41am

For Christ's sake, that's a slip of the tongue. You know, when you pretend to believe Obama is ignorant of the number of US states based on an obvious speech error it almost looks like you have no real arguments to make.

Rush-is-Right

September 28th, 2008 1:20pm

Er Gilbert, if Sarah Palin had let slip that she thought there were 48 States you would not have heard the last of it. There is a grotesque double standard here. While the MSM are hanging around in bars in Alaska carrying large wads of cash to give to anybody who can come up with some dirt on Mrs Palin where is their curiosity about Barack Hussein Obama's early years? Why did it take others, certainly not the mainstream media, to point out BHO's involvment with the disgusting Jeremiah Rant, and the terrorist William Ayres?

Verity

September 28th, 2008 2:58pm

Gilbert Belwether - Incorrect. You are clearly British - or at least, not American. American children have the history of their country drilled into them from First Grade. Civics classes begin around age 12. Any American child from 12 upwards knows the rough history of the country and knows the geography. By 14, they know it in more detail - from the landing of the settlers (Plymouth Rock) and the first Thanksgiving, with help of kindly Native Americans, through the War of Independence, through the original 13 states, which they better be able to name off the top of their heads or they will fail Civics, the push West, slavery, the War Between The States, the Western territories which applied for statehood, the legal structure of the new country ...

American children and teens are drilled on their country. No one from - I would say from, oh, Sixth Grade up, could possibly make such a slip of the tongue because by that age it is a groove in their brain.

You are very foolish to make excuses for someone who is so clearly wanting in legitimacy. You do not have to be a Harvard graduate - all you have to be is sentient - to know, as an American, the number of states in the Union. And from age 16, you can probably name all 50 off the top of your head.

Your point is ill-informed and very silly.

As you charge me (having no basis on which to judge): "it almost looks like you have no real arguments to make." There is no defence. I believe my arguments are irrefutable and would be supported by any American posting here.

And let's not forget, he made this mistake not once, but twice. The other time, he said he'd visited "all 48 states" - there haven't been 48 states for almost 50 years - "and Alaska and Hawaii", referring to them as though they were still territories almost 50 years after they were accorded statehood.

This is even more bizarre because Obama spent his teens - as far as we know; the records seem a bit flimsy - in Hawaii, where he was born. That is his home state. Are you telling me that he didn't know he was living in the United States for all those years?

My, my, you people certainly do contort yourselves into some odd knots to defend this eerie person.

THX1138

September 28th, 2008 4:55pm

The Poll done by those Commie bastards at ABC has called the debate for Obama too.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=5902766&page=1

Obama +5 on Gallup and +6 On Rasmussen, doing better in the in play states and winning the debate by a wide margin according to polls conducted by CNN and ABC , look like America is making up it's mind.

Verity

September 28th, 2008 4:55pm

Well, well, well ... the emetics never stop coming.

Thanks to LGF, we read that the parents of the late Sgt Ryan David Jopek, whose bracelet Obama wears and whose name he struggled to remember in the first Presidential Debate, had requested Obama not to wear their deceased son's bracelet.

Here's the story: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/warner-todd-huston/2008/09/28/family-told-obama-not-wear-soldier-sons-bracelet-where-media Obama continues to wear the bracelet despite the wishes of the deceased serviceman's family.

How grotesque is that?

THX1138

September 28th, 2008 8:06pm

Update- Obama goes +8 on Gallup Daily Tracking which includes the debate.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110740/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-50-42-Lead.aspx

Looks to me that America has decided. I bet it's into double figures after Bible Spice's debate on Thursday.

I can't wait is going to hilarious. I'm sure the wingnuts will tell after the train wreck us that all the fault of the liberal elite; the editing; the lighting and the moderator nothing to do with the fact that she hopelessly out of her depth

Hey lets not forget "our

Gilbert Belwether

September 28th, 2008 8:15pm

Verity, in fact I did go through the American school system (partly, anyway), which is why I agree with you that no sentient American could be ignorant of the fact that there are 50 states. I conclude from that that Obama made a simple speech error of a very common kind; you conclude, as far as I can tell, that he is not a sentient American. I think we can leave it to others to judge which conclusion is more reasonable.

Gilbert Belwether

September 29th, 2008 2:20am

Here's a freebie for you all, by the way: Obama doesn't know the name of his opponent, either. At one point in the debate he distinctly addressed McCain as "Tom", and then later as something like "Jan". He's been running against him for months! Can this ignoramus be trusted with the Presidency?!

Of course, I agree it would be terribly embarrassing for America to have a president who's prone to silly slips of the tongue.

RMH

September 29th, 2008 1:18pm

So nice to see the wingnuts expoloding in anger as their choice of Chief Invader seems to be on a massive gambling losing streak.

What next, a visit to the Senate, a place not seen for 6 months, or a Veep pick of someone with inexperience and vengence as the main qualities.

Or the withdrawl or rather sacking of said Veep pick as a last ditch gamble.

Obama winning in many ways is the best worst case, McSame is just that, a puppet for the worst elements of the Neocon movement.

Verity

September 29th, 2008 3:02pm

Gilbert Belwether - You are right that no sentient American could be ignorant of there being 50 states in the Union, but neither could a sentient American adult even make this error because by the time they leave high school, this has been made into a groove in their brain. Unless they were wanting mentally - and to be candid, I'm not sure Obama's not, but in a different way - such a mis-speak would simply not be possible. It would be akin to introducing yourself, in error, by the wrong name.

His constantly referring to John McCain by the wrong name tells me he is unnerved. He couldn't even remember to refer to Mr McCain as "Senator", which is a big faux pas and he did it constantly. Rattled. This is why he kept calling him by different names. That well known Senator of 30 years' standing and war hero Tom McCain. Rattled.

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