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Peter Hoskin

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The main reason why McCain is losing

Saturday, 25th October 2008

The post-mortems are already beginning on John McCain’s campaign. There is plenty for folk to get stuck into—the lack of a domestic policy message, the Palin pick, the failure to distance from Bush until so late in the campaign—but McCain is trailing principally because he is a national security candidate in what has turned into an almost exclusively economic election.

As Steve Hayes notes, back in 2007 the most important issue in picking a president for both Republicans and Democrats were national security related—terrorism for Republicans, Iraq for Democrats. Now only nine percent cite terrorism and seven percent Iraq as their top issue while 57 percent name the economy. This isn’t surprising given recent events but it does make it extremely hard for McCain to breakthrough. His greatest strength as a candidate is national security, something that his war hero biography reinforces. It is the subject on which he is most passionate and knowledgeable. By contrast, McCain used to admit rather too candidly that he didn’t know as much as he should about economics.

Obama might have bested Hillary in the primaries in large part because of Iraq. But Iraq was always part of a broader Obama message about how Washington was broken so the issue’s decline in importance has not hurt Obama in the same way. (Although, watching this video of Hillary campaigning on the economy a few weeks ago—watch from about 3.55—did make me wonder if she would be further ahead than he currently is).  Indeed, given how wrong Obama was about the surge it suits him now to avoid a protracted debate on Iraq.

Running after Bush’s two terms was always going to be hard for McCain. He needed everything to go right for him. Instead events have broken decisively against him. There is not much a campaign can actually do about that.


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Reg

October 25th, 2008 8:32pm

Still trotting obediently at the heels of the MSM, James?

Even after several polls (including Battleground and AP) have them level-pegging?

Even if McCain does lose (of which I have serious doubts), it will be because of the blanket support of the MSM for Obama. And because of at least one of the subjects the MSM has been blithely ignoring - ACORN.

Give us all a break from the wall-to-wall, James, and make life a little more interesting for us by writing an article under the heading of 'The Main Reason Why McCain Might Actually Win'.

TrevorsDen

October 25th, 2008 8:42pm

Apart from a 'we blame the Republicans' opinion - why should the economy suit Obama? Has he any intrinsic qualities?

But you're right of course ...

But equally of course there is no real evidence that either one could be better than the other - that either party would be better than the other.

The problem for the Republicans is that its banking and finance that is perceived to have failed and they are probably more associated with Republicans and their failure might swing people more towards Democrats and a more left wing less free market attitude.

Can Republicans tar Democrats with a left wing brush? I doubt it.

Tam

October 25th, 2008 9:55pm

Yes, there is a stampede effect with this election. The uncertainty and frightover the economy has played into Obama's hands.

He has become a blank canvas onto which the electorate paint their fantasy.

Look at what he said in all the debates, though, and the language he used was of a tax raiser. McCain should have driven that point home a lot more than he has.

One wonders how all this will look a year from now. The tax levies will have been unveiled by then and as for national security, where to start?

Iran will look at Obama and realise they have four years to get to the nuclear bomb finishing line.

If memory serves correctly, Israel didn't tell America about it's little Syrian expedition.

Israel always has nothing to lose. It might as well defend itself in the most dangerous circumstances imaginable rather than be destroyed on its knees. If were Israel, I'd keep Obama at arm's length.

As for homeland security? That could erupt anytime.

Voters are focused on the economy but as important as that is, I suspect that the next four years will, as ever with an American presidency, be defined by national security.

For that, America may soon realise it has chosen a candidate even worse than Jimmy Carter.

THX1138

October 25th, 2008 10:09pm

James I beat you to the Politico scoop so you spiked my earlier post that linked to it. Thanks

Well CNN have it too

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/25/mccain-aide-palin-going-rogue/

They are going to tear each other apart. GOP cage fighting all across the TV and the internet, what fun it will all be.

Ganpat Ram

October 25th, 2008 10:37pm

James, if McCain could not see from the start that this election would have to be about the economy at least as much as national security, that only proves how complacent and idiotic he is.

The economy has been bad for a long time now; houses have been repossesed on an epic scale for many months now, long bfore the banking crash.

That is why this election could be won ONLY by a candidate who promised large state help to the working class.

Obama was a very vulnerable opponent.

The public were and are even now suspicious of Obama. Very many of them even now see him as anti-American in his instincts. That is why Hillary Clinton almn ost won against him in the primaries. Hillary had lost too much ground at the start to win, but she gave McCain a many months long tutorial on how to beat Obama: brand yourself as a left-wing Republican - a man who could give the working class serious state help but also was a genuine patriot.

He had plenty of time to re-educate his cussedly outdated Republican Party and make them see this was the only way to win.

He would have confronted Hillary or Obama as a truly formidable candidate.

Instead he chose the small-minded path of rightwing demagogy, and is being whipped.

What a shame !!!!

The deluded GOP

October 25th, 2008 11:13pm

It's not just events James. Read Lexington in this week's Economist. McCain is - rightly - losing because this campaign is telling people they're wrong to like Obama. That he's a socialist etc etc. That there's nothing wrong with the GOP.

McCain might have been the candidate to transform the Republican party. He didn't, so someone else will have to.

Hayward Maberley

October 26th, 2008 12:10am

Mr Forsyth,
"It is the subject on which he is most passionate and knowledgeable"
Passionate probably!
Knowledgeable improbably?
Confused is more like it.
Extract from LA Times Thursday 22 May 2008 McCain: so wrong, but so what? by Rosa Brooks.
"...In Jordan this past March, he pronounced it "common knowledge ... that Al Qaeda"-a Sunni dominated group-"is going back into Iran"-a country led by hard-line Shi'i-"and receiving training ... from Iran." Oops ... no! Joe Lieberman, McCain's new Mini-Me, whispered a correction in his ear, presumably explaining that the Iranian Shi'i hate Sunni dominated Al Qaeda and wouldn't help the group if their lives depended on it.
A slip of the tongue on McCain's part? That would be easier to buy if McCain hadn't repeated variants of the claim on multiple occasions, insisting to a Texas audience in February that Iran was aiding Al Qaeda and wondering during Senate hearings if Al Qaeda in Iraq was "an obscure sect of the Shiites overall? ... Or Sunnis or anybody else."
McCain seems more than a little confused about who's who in the Middle East, which is maybe why he's so dead-set against the idea of talks with anyone not already a U.S. ally. It's always embarrassing, from a diplomatic perspective, to have no idea who you're talking to....”
Extract from http://www.latimes.com/news/columnists/la-oe-brooks22-2008may22,0,5435010.column

TGF UKIP

October 26th, 2008 12:15am

But Reg, was ever a publication more MSM than the Speccie - why do you think so many of them are allowed to appear and earn so much sideline dough on the BBC?

Reg

October 26th, 2008 1:05am

I guess you're right, TGF.

Both the Speccie and the Telegraph. Very disappointing.

A cold shower here or a warm bath in the blogosphere? Hmmmm. Tough choice......

Frank P

October 26th, 2008 1:40am

You are absolutely right, Reg!

The MSM political arm is comprised predominately of the credulous and brainwashed output of the Halls of Academe staffed by the professorial disciples of Antonio G.

Its resultant propaganda has been relentless and effective on this side of the Pond; hence we have had eleven years of baneful government; reduced sovereignty; oppressive multiculti legislation; exponential increase of crime and public disorder; breached borders; greatly increased taxation; anti-American bias from our National Broadcasting Service together with the consequent weakening of the Western alliance and creeping statism at every level of life. The Machiavellian manipulation of our economy could well have been designed to undermine free-market capitalism to make it fail and thus facilitate even more state control over our economy - vide the headlines for the past two months.

If, or perhaps it would more correct to say when, Obama is swept into power by some of the most biased media coverage ever witnessed (in my long lifetime anyway), a similar imposition of socialism through the back door in the US will surely ensue. This will pave the way for militant Islam to accelerate its already pervasive intrusion into Western Culture and dilute it beyond recognition.

Whether Putin will see the dangers of creeping Islam and the ultimate threat to his own power base is an intriguing question, given his own problems with encroaching Islamic jihad both inside his own country and around its borders. If America throws in the towel in Iraq and Afghanistan, then cedes to Iran's nuclear ambitions, it will create a completely different world order that may bring Armageddon much closer than even the doomsday prognosticators and enviro-nutters have augured. A neophyte US President, steeped in Marxist dogma and Black Power politics is all we need at this point in history, don't you think, particularly as the hierarchy of HM Opposition in the UK and their publicists on this magazine also seem to have been bewitched by the Obamessiah and his flim-flam?

The illusory gravy train has hit the buffers already; what are they expecting from this con man - a bolt of lightning and a miracle? How come the liberarti-farty literati has suddenly developed a death wish for Western Democracy - perhaps because Agitprop is always mollycoddled in Totalitaria?

The self-destruction of Homo sapiens was always inevitable, but the speed of its premature and unnecessary current freefall due to sheer stupidity is breathtaking. I always hoped that when my final hours arrived that I would go quietly anticipating that my children and theirs would experience a better life than I have lived. A vain hope now, I'm afraid, if we wake up on November 5th and discover that Obama's string pullers succeeded on the day that Guy Fawkes et al failed.

A few years ago I spoke to Sir Ian MacGregor, of Steel Industry and Coal Board fame who was about to see a Consultant at a Hospital I was connected with just after Tony Blair was elected. I asked him what he thought about our new Prime Minister. "Ahhhh", he sighed, "The Trojan Horse."
Before I could ask him to elucidate, he was called in for his appointment. He died soon afterwards before I had the chance to speak to him again. I have discovered since exactly what he meant.

I certainly didn't expect America to go out with a whimper so speedily, dumping a patriotic war hero for an loquacious shill with a dubious if not indeed a mysterious pedigree - a Trojan Horse - the ultimate product of the covert counter-culture revolution.

Hey - my transatlantic buddies! Your energy, invention, courage, determination, generosity and hospitality have hitherto amounted to THE major success story for humanity. You have shown us all the way, despite the anomalies that exist with your culture and way of life. Don't squander that progress at the behest of the envious and destructive politics of modified communism, as we have in the UK. You still have a week or so to avert disaster. Somebody prod the sleeping tiger again; the world needs your resolve, not your capitulation to the creed of envy and levelling down. Spreading the wealth? Ingsoc!

Destroying the wealth and spreading statism, subordination and poverty more like.

TGF UKIP

October 26th, 2008 10:19am

Brilliantly, brilliantly put Frank P, a real tour de force.

As for my own post of 12.15 am, I was more than a little pissed off at the non appearance or long delayed appearance of posts and and what I said went much too far and was undeserved and I apologize chaps.

Hayward Maberley

October 26th, 2008 11:20am

Mr Pulley,
More from the dastardly MSM
But as we say Down Under fruitcake for ever!
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/10/24/politics/main4544204.shtml
McCain Worker Made Up Attack Story
Pittsburgh Woman To Be Charged With Making False Report After Claiming "B" Was Carved Into Face By Mugger
Obviously desperate times call for really desperate measures.
Mr Pulley as a former police oficer how would you treat someone who made such a false claim that involved the expenditure of police resources and time.

JONNY

October 26th, 2008 12:20pm

Summat to do with Palin perhaps?

Hayward Maberley

October 26th, 2008 12:37pm

Mr Pulley ,
“The MSM political arm is comprised predominately of the credulous and brainwashed output of the Halls of Academe staffed by the professorial disciples of Antonio G.”
Are you not forgetting Mr Pulley that most of the people that you refer to as “credulous and brainwashed...” are all employed by capitalists. Those who seek to maximise the return on their investment. If these “credulous and brainwashed” do not do their job ie. keep the circulation numbers up/ keep advertising revenue increasing they will be out of a job. Quick smart. That is what business is about. So the “bias” is based upon the what they regard as “good business” for them. If any of you wish to set up your own media empire you can. Bon chance!
“creeping statism at every level of life. “
This has always been the case even in so called “ free enterprise economies” the mutual pocket pissing of government, the military /industrial/financial cabal plus whoever else can get on the gravy train. That includes the wonderful PPP. Just look at the interdependence in the UK, the USA and in my own country the so called Commonwealth of Australia between Big Business and Big Government
“The Machiavellian manipulation of our economy could well have been designed to undermine free-market capitalism to make it fail and thus facilitate even more state control over our economy - vide the headlines for the past two months”
This is real conspiracy hypothesis territory. Well in that case may I refer you to an article that gives a scenario that might fit into your conspiracy. It is by Philip Adams and appeared in The Australian, a Murdoch NewsCorp Publication , entitled "George the Manchurian Candidate" see @ http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24420839-5013491,00.html
“some of the most biased media coverage ever witnessed (in my long lifetime anyway)”
You obviously do not recall the truckloads of bullshit about the Viet Nam Farrago and how well things were going there until they were not.
Then earlier there was all that non bs, just lies and misinformation concerning the “Suez Crisis”
“that may bring Armageddon much closer”
Y’all forget that is what excites many on the religious right in the USA.
They actually look forward to this event. For on their websites, one of which I have referred to in another blog, Mr Pulley , when Israel made that foolish incursion into Lebanon, these people waxed ecstatic over the approach of Armageddon and the Rapture that was to arrive. This is why they support Israel. Not that they they care much for either Israel or its inhabitants. It is the End Times that is important
“The illusory gravy train has hit the buffers”
Who were the designers, engineers and drivers of this “gravy train” ? The Wall Street Mob, for that is what they can be likened to, The Mob. And who were the chief enablers of the Wall Street Mob. Chairman Greenspan comes to mind who as Chairman of the Federal Reserve under a Republican Administration was responsible for what is now regarded as a “very loose monetary policy” He himself confessed his sin, to Congress. admitting mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa. Then there is Chris Cox, SEC boss who let the Infamous Five off the leash of Responsible Merchant Banking and into the Lewis Carroll world where a debt is worth whatever I say it is worth as an asset. Then in case you had forgotten, which party had the majority in Congress until 2006 and the Administration for the last 8 years?
“The self-destruction of Homo sapiens was always inevitable,”
Mr Pulley, may I suggest that you read Last and First Men by Olaf Stapledon. Although a work of fiction, just as John Bunyan’s The Pilgrim's Progress was, it posits the survival and evolution of mankind through various stages.
If you wish to be a Jeremiah concerning post 04/11/2008 that is your right. But do not forget that much worse things have happened to the world at large and it survived. Do not get out the sackcloth and ashes just yet.

Reg

October 26th, 2008 12:52pm

Frank - you're absolutely right.

But I do NOT think this election is a foregone conclusion. For very sound reasons.

The GOP base is unified angry and energised. The DNC base is fractured and at war with itself. The Hillary Dems and PUMAs have hived-off and are campaigning for the GOP with as much energy and enthusiasm as the Republicans.

They have not forgiven the Obama camp for its treatment of Hillary and, more significantly, have found a new poster-girl in Sarah "Gorgeous" Palin, to whom they have transferred their affections.

Each of these votes against Obama is equally a vote for McCain/Palin. How many hundreds of thousands of these does it take to swing an election?

If anything, Frank, it'll be the blogosphere that'll slay the vile leftist beast. In many ways, this election is the final battle between the MSM and the rising power of the blogosphere - hence the all-out efforts being made by the MSM to strong-arm the Obama candidacy into the White House.

But I think its too darn late. The genie is out of the bottle, thank g*d.

TGF - for what and to whom are you apologising? Given the recent slant adopted by the Speccie, your comments seem entirely reasonable. Oh no!! They haven't got to you too, have they?!

Reg

October 26th, 2008 1:03pm

By the way, Frank, it was your description of McCain as the grizzled old veteran coming out for his last battle against the commies, and allowing Sarah Palin to ride shotgun on his wagon, that has provided, for me, one of the most inspiring images of this entire election campaign.

Thank you!

Craig Strachan

October 26th, 2008 6:13pm

The economy is the main reason McCain is losing, yes. A subsidiary reason is that the Republican base is now clearly unrepresentative of mainstream America, too closely identified with religious reactionaries who seem weirdly obsessed with the private lives of others.

The GOP will have to conduct a brand decontamination reminiscent of Cameron's efforts with the British Tories.

The good news is that the long period of Democratic hegemony ahead will give them plenty of time (and motive) to accomplish this.

Hayward Maberley

October 26th, 2008 7:47pm

Reg and Frank,
"the grizzled old veteran coming out for his last battle against the commies, and allowing Sarah Palin to ride shotgun on his wagon"
I await the cartoon version, will they do their own voices do you think?

Hayward Maberley

October 26th, 2008 7:51pm

Any opera fans out there?

McCain aide: Palin 'going rogue'"She is a diva. She takes no advice from anyone," said this McCain adviser. "She does not have any relationships of trust with any of us, her family or anyone else.

As a diva I wonder what the final performance will be?
Possibly Götterdämmerung by Wagner or maybe I Pagliaci by Leoncavallo?

See the diva @
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/10/25/mccain-aide-palin-going-rogue

My thanks to THX 1138 for the link.

derek

October 27th, 2008 2:53am

Expect something military to happen in the last week. Something to scare the voter back to the GOP. Ah.....Syria.....

Conservative Cabbie

October 27th, 2008 6:41pm

Hayward

My don't you enjoy cherry picking quotes.

The belief now doing the rounds in the right wing blogosphere is that the aide (a minor official in the McCain camp BTW) is a Romney supporter.

I think you will find a lot of these leaks about unrest in the McCain camp is Romney and/or his supporters positioning themselves following a McCain defeat and not genuine unrest.

FWIW

Any move by Sarah Palin to establish her electoral credentials, distance herself from the notion that she is responsible for any defeat and establish herself as a future leader of the GOP is absolutely fine in my book.

As for your post about the woman falsely claiming that attack - there's not a right wing blog that I've read that hasn't condemned her for it. Strange though that you don't feel the need to comment about this though for example.

http://tinyurl.com/6k2ml6

Conservative Cabbie

October 27th, 2008 7:17pm

Oh my, my last sentence in my previous comment ("Strange though that you don't feel the need to comment about this though for example") reads like a Sarah Palin line. I'm so proud!

Hayward Maberley

October 28th, 2008 8:11am

Mr Cabbie,
Cherry picking has developed as an art from on the web. It is the McCain Mob that is providing the quotes, not as far as I am aware any one else from Camp Republican.
Btw some punctuation, a comma between that last though and for example wpild make more sense.
No Mr Cabbie do not turn Palinesque in your speech, you express your thoughts in a reasonable and rational manner. Ther was enough the garble, bad grammar and strange sentence construction with Dubya.

Conservative Cabbie

October 28th, 2008 10:12am

Hayward

Thankyou for the grammar lesson, you may want to look at your last sentence though, did you have the shakes?

I heard Palin's brother and sister speak the night of the VP debate and they spoke in exactly the same way (lots of superfluous though's and also's). It's clear that she speaks that way either because of dialect or the way she was brought up, not because she's dumb.
Maybe I'm just a more tolerant person than yourself, but I don't judge character from the way a person speaks. Well, apart from bloomin' Eastenders.

Respectfully

Cabbie

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