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Peter Hoskin

Pete suggests


Do the math

Friday, 31st October 2008

The crucial number on Tuesday night is 270, that’s the number of electoral college votes needed to win the presidency. The Obama campaign has multiple options for getting to 270. Karl Rove’s map, which is based on public state by state polling, has Obama with 311 supposedly solid electoral college votes with another 70 too close to call.

Realistically, it is hard to see McCain winning every toss up state and peeling off Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire from Obama’s column which is his quickest route to 270. McCain needs the race to change nationally, to be reframed around who would be an effective Commander in Chief—a question on which he still leads.


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Grumpy

October 31st, 2008 12:07pm

maths

Ted Tedford

October 31st, 2008 12:37pm

Arithmetic?

mac

October 31st, 2008 12:43pm

James,

Is the missing 's' (from "math") a wind-up? If so, it succeeded with me! Please use the British-English abbreviation.

(We have enough creeping Americanisms with 'from the get go' steadily replacing the more elegant 'from the outset', or the clumsy phrase 'in the coming days' used earlier this week in Thompson's BBC statement. Baaah!)

Water

October 31st, 2008 12:50pm

Capital 'M' in your sense of the use Grumpy.

RMH

October 31st, 2008 1:02pm

Pres – 311 vs 227
Senate – 57 (includes two indies) vs 43
House – 245 vs 190

Dems on the left, natch.

David

October 31st, 2008 1:18pm

" McCain needs the race to change nationally, to be reframed around who would be an effective Commander in Chief—a question on which he still leads."

A, he's just got four days to do so, which simply aren't enough to get that to sink in were he able to do so.

B, The VP pick of Palin undermines that message given how she might end up being in charge (which frankly causes a lot of other problems)

C, his party is already squabbling, and therefore shows no signs of being able to force a tactical campaign perspective swtich.

D, it doesn't matter anyway. The majority are now settled in a mood for getting rid of the a Republican presidency. McCain's only chance was to stress how independent he was from that, despite being in the same Congrssional party. That though had to be done at the beginning, and for what ever reason he failed to do anything other than run to the base. Shame.

JohnAnt

October 31st, 2008 2:25pm

'Do the Math' is obviously a deliberate Americanism.
It's an American election.
(And in any case 'Do the Maths' is not a proverbial saying in in UK English.)
Cut the guy some slack, or should that be slacks.

mac

October 31st, 2008 3:57pm

O/T
"Mathematics may be defined as the subject in which we never know what we are talking about, nor whether what we are saying is true."

- Bertrand Russell

Enter Gordon Brown, mathematician.

Hysteria

October 31st, 2008 4:30pm

I know it grates to the UK "ear" - but I wonder if actually "math" is more correct - wasn't the orginal word "mathematik" ?- I think the "s" crept in some time more recently - maybe a question to Michael Quinion at World Wide Words...?

THX1138

October 31st, 2008 5:34pm

Obama just put up "air" in Arizona a Kos poll had a dead heat and a +12 advantage to Obama in early voting, Pollster has the state within the margin of error

Maybe the "air" is an Obama head fake or maybe they have some good internal poll and McCain did start the robo calls in home state earlier in the week, why bother unless you're worried.

Whatever the reason McCain is now playing defence in his own backyard. Fantastic news

TGF UKIP

October 31st, 2008 9:55pm

THX, IF, God forbid, Obama wins then I confidently predict that not very far down the road I will be reminding you of your present huge misjudgement of who and what Obama is.

And guess what, I'm going to thoroughly enjoy it but always assuming that your embarrassment at your error has not, by then, driven you to take refuge on another website.

The fat lady hasn't sung just yet though!

THX1138

November 1st, 2008 12:16am

TGF - I do believe Obama is going to win & I also believe that he is going to be a great president.

If he loses or turns out to have feet of clay, of course I will be embarrassed & disappointed but I won't be running off anywhere, I'll take my medicine on this blog and thoroughly deserve it as I have been crowing a plenty.

However if I'm right & he I does live up to hype and is the great unifying force I and millions of people believe him to be I trust that nay sayers on the Coffee House will have the good grace to admit it.

Anyway a hit on the polling crack pipe before bed.

Obama is +10 in from early voting in Colorado (9 Ev's) and two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their votes and +17 in New Mexico (5EV's) and 60 percent of New Mexicans have already voted. Bush won both these states in 2004.

It gets better the CNN map has just reclassified Arizona from safe Republican to lean Republican and from a CBS/NYT poll 59% of voters now think Palin is not up to the job up 9% since the beginning of the month better still nearly a third of voters polled said the vice-presidential selection would be a major factor influencing their vote for president.

When the wingnutosphere starts it's recriminations on Wednesday they should start with Palin. WTF was he thinking.

Murray

November 1st, 2008 4:11am

The average poll has an 80% no response rate. Hmmm.

Hilliary beat Obama in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New jersey, California, Massachusetts and New Hampshire (several of which she was tipped to lose by the polls and the media). Hmmm.

They were writing McCain's campaign obituary last fall, before he proved them mistaken and won the primary.

Hilliary was a shoe in to win the primary. Didn't happen.

Now Obama has the Presidency all wrapped up. Hmmmm.

I seem to remember the Patriots were overwhelming favorites to win the Superbowl, the Giants had no right to even be on the same field with them...McCain's upset win next week will provoke many a nervous breakdown. Cheers!

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