McCain's campaign chief warns that the Republicans might find it impossible to win a presidential election again unless the party changes
What should, perhaps, worry the Republicans most about this year’s election result is that they lost in the fastest growing states in the country and among the fastest growing demographics. Many of the states the Republicans lost this year—I’m thinking in particular of Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada—are, on current trends, going to become more and more Democratic over time. Unless the Republican Party finds a way to reverse these trends, they will be reliant on perfect conditions to win at a national level.
Steve Schmidt, who effectively ran the McCain campaign, is I think right to be so pessimistic in his interview with The Daily Beast about the state the Republicans are in:
“If you look at the returns from the southwestern and mountain west states, with rising Latino populations, it’s clear that Latinos are repudiating the party, their anger about the tone of the immigration debate, and the party has to figure out a way to communicate that wanting to have a secure and sovereign southern border and respect for Latinos are not mutually exclusive. But if the party does not figure out a way to appeal to Latino voters, it will become increasingly difficult, and maybe impossible, to ever again win a national election.The party in the Northeast is all but extinct; the party on the West Coast is all but extinct; the party has lost the mid-South states—Virginia, North Carolina—and the party is in deep trouble in the Rocky Mountain West, and there has to be a message and a vision that is compelling to people in order for them to come back and to give consideration to the Republican Party again.
The Republican Party was long known as the party that competently managed government. We’ve lost our claim to that. The Republican Party was known as the party that was serious on national security issues. The mismanagement of the war has stripped that away. So there is much to do in rebuilding the brand of the party, what it stands for, and what it’s about in a way that Americans find appealing. The country has just elected a—the country has just vested power—in a Democratic Party, across the board. And you will see a sharp left turn. The Republican Party wants to, needs to, be able to represent, you know, not only conservatives, but centrists as well. And the party that controls the center is the party that controls the American electorate.”
Now, Schmidt himself—and McCain—cannot be exempt from criticism on this front: the McCain campaign had no domestic message and in the final days fell back upon a bunch of overplayed Republican tunes. But Schmidt’s analysis is accurate.
What the party needs to do is to forge a new reformist message--Charlie Crist in Florida, Mitch Daniels in Indiana, Bobby Jindal in Louisiana and Schwarzenegger and Bloomberg have already made some progress on this front but these policies need to be tied together into a coherent whole--and recover its reputation for competence. The competence aspect of this can probably only be achieved by nominating a two-term governor who has demonstrably improved the way their state is run. The other thing the Republicans must be is patient, fixing these problems will take time.
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Johnny
November 8th, 2008 11:34pmThey need to drop the neo-conservativism, the evangellical social-conservatism, the 'compassionate conservatism' - and get back to their small government libertarian roots. And start appealing to college educated Americans, and newly immgrated Latin-Americans.
Reihan Salam & Ross Douthat 'The Grand New Party' - Andrew Sullivan's 'The Conseravtive Soul' and David Frum's 'Comeback: The Conservatism that can win again.' - are all good places to start.
THX1138
November 8th, 2008 11:49pmSarah “Insert your sharp-toothed animal of choice” Palin and Sam “Joe the Plumber” Wurzelbacher. The 2012 dream ticket, I can't wait for the debates.
Peter Metcalfe
November 9th, 2008 1:54amBloomberg is no longer a Republican.
Craig Strachan
November 9th, 2008 2:43amBloomberg no longer identifies as a Republican.
Ray
November 9th, 2008 8:56amMe detects echoes of Theresa May, Michael Portillo and all that talk of the 'nasty party' here. For instance, don't dare mention mass immigration, or any of the other things that animate ordinary Americans.
Get over it, GOP. The Republicans lost because of the incompetence of the Bush administration, both at home and overseas - in hoc as it was to the neo-conservative cuckoos in its nest.
What the party needs to do is rediscover its Jeffersonian roots and hammer the Democrats hard on the big-spending, politically-correct agaenda they are going to be weighed down by if they even try to fulfil half of the expectations that Obama has stoked up amongst his supporters.
Rhoda Klapp
November 9th, 2008 10:25amIf the guy who 'ran the campaign' didn't believe in the party, who can wonder that they lost? However, to lose 53-47 when everything is against you, wrong incumbent, wrong candidate, superb performance fronm the other side, media bias on an unprecedented level, that's not indicative of need to tear the whole thing down, just wait til the Messiah cacks it up.
John B
November 9th, 2008 1:18pmIt's true that the Republicans didn't lose by all that much, but what ought to worry them is that it's also true that they are getting more and more locked into declining demographics. To put it bluntly: the older you are, the whiter you are, and the less well educated you are - the likelier you are to have voted Republican in this election.
In particular, the rapidly-growing Hispanic vote, in which the Republicans were competitive as recently as 2004, shifted massively to Obama this time. This fact alone is sufficient to account for his wins in a slew of states - Florida, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada - that were traditionally regarded as marginal or tending Republican. Against anyone but John McCain, Arizona would almost certainly have been added to this list.
The Electoral College arithmetic is starting to look grim for the Republicans unless they can reach out to some of the groups they've succeeded in alienating.
Rex Burr
November 9th, 2008 4:06pmDon't let Melanie read this item.
TGF UKIP
November 9th, 2008 9:25pmOh dear, James, you were doing so well until you threw in the names of Scharzenegger and Bloomberg. Why not come right out and say that what you would really like the GOP to do is to ape Cameron's Blue Labour Tories and have the the Repbublicans become imitation Democrats. Red Dems in fact (doesn't the reversal of colours confuse!) so we can all become transatlantic socdems together.
James Forsyth
November 10th, 2008 1:16amTGF my friend, Schwarzenegger and Bloomberg have done several good things from a centre-right perspective. I'm thinking particulalry of Bloomberg and schools and Arnie's pro-growth greenery. A party that is going to compete nationally should be interested in these ideas. As ever, James
Jim Carr
November 10th, 2008 11:22amNonsense.
These political insiders are all the same, always trying to justify their existence with more meaningless claptrap.
And this from the guy that ran the McCain campaign. Why should we listen to a loser like him?
The American electorate will be soon enough sick of the Democrat hegemony.
Elections are not won, they are lost, and this latest one was no exception.
But that would mean no continuing job for the likes of Schmidt, so why not instigate a total change, where Schmidt can guarantee his position for the next few years.
Self-serving nonsense.