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The stakes in South Carolina

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 23rd January 2008

For the Obama campaign, South Carolina is do or die. If Obama loses a third consecutive contest, he’ll limp into Super Tuesday and be easily picked off by the Clinton machine. But if he wins, he’ll have triumphed in two of the three major early contests and be right back in the race.

What is also crucial for Obama is how he wins in South Carolina. The Clintons are currently playing psychological games with Obama and to judge by the candidate’s testy reaction when a New York Times reporter asked him if President Clinton had got inside his head, they’re winning. It is crucial that Obama doesn’t have even a mild blow up over the next few days as the Clintons turn up the heat.

Obama also needs to win a significant proportion of the white vote. Given how prominent race has become in the campaign in recent weeks if Obama wins on the back of huge African-American turn out and support, the press will write up a ‘black backlash’ storyline stepping on the change narrative that Obama needs to get out if he is to do well when 23 states vote simultaneously on February 5th.

Hillary is playing a cautious game in South Carolina. She is not going all in—she’s in New Jersey today—so she’ll be able to minimise a loss there. But she has sent Bill down there to stump all week and there’s a chance that he could either goad Obama into a flash of anger or help the Clintons get closer than people expect.

Of course, Bill’s effectiveness depends on how black voters react to the 42nd President. Before the campaign started, there would have been no question that he would have got a positive reaction but now that he is taken on the role of attack dog in chief with some feeling that he is using racially charged language it is not so certain. Indeed, no one would have expected the so-called first black president to get called out from the pulpit on Martin Luther King Day. If he is ineffective in South Carolina, it will suggest that he has burnt his bridges with many black voters