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Topic A: The Economy

James Forsyth

Thursday, 24th January 2008

Columbia, South Carolina

The Fed’s dramatic rate cut and the economic turbulence that caused it have thrust the economy to the centre of the political stage. Indeed, the only thing competing with it for time on the morning shows is Heath Ledger’s death. This shift to economic issues is to the benefit of Hillary Clinton. Clinton’s small bore policy wonkery comes across as reassuring amidst all this uncertainty and her campaign have her giving a speech on the economy today in South Carolina in an attempt to drive the conversation. The focus on the economy also allows Hillary to run against President Bush and when she does this is when she does best as New Hampshire demonstrated.

It is unlikely that the focus on the economy will be enough to push Clinton over the top here in South Carolina, she trails by double digits in the polls, but it could be of vital assistance to her on February 5th when more than 20 states vote. It also enables the Clintons to push their central argument against Obama that it is just too big a roll of the dice to put him in the White House in these troubled times.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney is boosted by the salience of the economic question. Romney, an extremely successful businessman, comes across as being in command of the details when talking about this subject and—crucially for him given his record of flip-flopping on other issues—as authentic. By contrast, John McCain can not summon up the same passion on the economy as he does on the war. His attitude is summed up by this quote that he gave to Time magazine:

"Obviously the economy is a very, very vital issue. There's no doubt about that, O.K.? But the issue that's going to be with us after the economy recovers is the challenge of radical Islamic extremism, of which Iraq is the central battleground."

Polling shows the Republican race in Florida to be incredibly close and if the last few days of the campaign are dominated by the economy then Romney will benefit and he could very well pull off a surprise victory.