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Can McCain and Obama both win?

James Forsyth

Thursday, 24th January 2008

At first blush, it is hard to see why Barack Obama and John McCain draw from the same well of support. Obama is the candidate of youthful vigour, McCain is—as he likes to say—older than dirt. Obama was against Iraq from the start, McCain has been one of the war’s most eloquent advocates. Obama is a liberal, McCain a conservative. But as I found in New Hampshire, there is a poll of cross over voters who drawn to both men because of their desire to reach beyond party, their characters and their frankness.

An election campaign between the two of them would move America beyond the partisan warfare of the last 15 years. Neither would try to assemble a 50 plus one coalition, instead they both would want to win truly national victories. This is why so many people feel that a McCain Obama race would be much needed balm for America’s partisan wounds.

The problem for McCain and Obama is that as they draw support from the same kind of independent voter each suffers the longer the other stays in the contest. One very astute politics watcher who I was talking to in DC last night made the point that as soon as either race appears to be settled these voters will flood in to the race that is still going to either McCain or Obama’s benefit; 11 of the contests that follow Super Tuesday are open primaries where independents can vote in either contest. So both McCain and Obama will be rooting for someone in the other party to win big on Super Tuesday.