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Tuesday 6 January 2009

The Republicans debate

Tonight’s Republican debate in Florida is the last best chance for the contenders to move their numbers before primary day. All the candidates have needs but perhaps none more than Rudy Giuliani, currently third in most polls, who has to win in Florida. Expect to see Giuliani dust off his prosecutorial skills. Another thing to watch for is what Mike Huckabee does. His campaign has lost some altitude since he failed to win in South Carolina but he could play a crucial role tonight in going after Mitt Romney who is performing strongly in Florida as the economy comes to increasingly dominate the campaign. Huckabee, however, has been getting some pot shots off at Romney’s business career and if he does the same tonight he could halt Romney’s surge which would help John McCain who is battling Romney for the lead in Florida. If Huckabee does take on Romney, it will fuel rumours that his main ambition now is to be McCain’s VP—and given that McCain will be 72 by inauguration day and might well only serve one term, being the bottom half of his ticket is an appealing prospect.

The debate starts off on the economy. It is all very civilised stuff as the candidates hit their key themes. John McCain stresses his support for tax cuts and reining in government spending. Mitt Romney emphasises his private sector experience and his line that Washington is broken. Mike Huckabee takes the chance to offer some populist talk. Rudy Giuliani is oddly downbeat considering that this debate is so crucial for him. So far, the candidates are only drawing the gentlest of contrasts.

Oddly enough, as McCain probably got the best of the economics section Romney scores well during the Iraq section throwing some well-designed partisan jabs at Hillary Clinton. Again, the candidates—with, as always, the exception of Ron Paul—don’t draw big distinctions. The big question is when will Rudy make his move?

Now, this should be fun—the candidates get to question each other. Romney goes first and throws a softball question about trade with China to Giuliani, one wonders whether he is trying to boost him against McCain. McCain asks Huckabee a question about the flat tax and at the end of it tees him up perfectly to go into his line about abolishing the IRS. Interestingly, neither Romney nor McCain chose to engage with each other. Both clearly think that their interests are best suited by playing things safe. Huckabee dings Romney on the gun question and Romney gives a slightly, blustering answer. Giuliani in a shameless pander plays up his support for a national catastrophic fund –popular in hurricane ridden Florida, criticises McCain for opposing it and asks Romney if he supports it which he does in some form. One has to think that Romney and Giuliani coordinated their questions tonight.

Romney had been having a great debate but he’s thrown on the back foot by a question from Tim Russert, America’s premier political interviewer, about how much of his own money he’s spending on the campaign. Romney comes off sounding shifty and a verbal stumble makes him sound like he is saying he doesn’t care about what the voters think. The Romney camp will be furious with the Russert for the question and for the follow ups and with Huckabee for coming back for another swing at him on it. If it hadn’t been for that exchange, Romney would have left tonight as the winner.

The McCain Huckabee double act comes out again when Huckabee gets a question about his cheerleader Chuck Norris saying McCain is too old to be president. Huckabee wittily distances himself and offers up praise for McCain and his 95 year old mother. McCain takes the chance to bring up Sly Stallone’s endorsement of him and then in military-heavy Florida cleverly pivots to his endorsement by the Gulf War General Norman Schwarzkopf.

The big surprise of tonight was that no candidate went all out. I’m shocked that Rudy, who desperately needs a win here, didn’t take more risks. Both McCain and Romney will be satisfied with their performances—Romney probably got the YouTube moment with his gag about not wanting Bill Clinton in the White House with nothing to do—but given the continuing focus on the economy, one senses that McCain needs a boost to get him over the finish line. That could come from an endorsement from the Republican Governor of Florida Charlie Crist.

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