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In the McCain bubble

James Forsyth

Monday, 28th January 2008

John McCain is a win away from becoming the odds on favourite to be the Republican nominee. If he can win here in Florida, where he is in a dead heat with Mitt Romney, he Should effectively wrap things up on Super Tuesday. If he does not, then this contest will run and run and that suits Romney who with his deep pockets can afford to compete in every contest.

Who wins the final news cycle here will be key. Unlike in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina this is not a retail politics state. Instead, the candidates are flying from media market to media market trying to garner as much coverage as possible.

The McCain campaign want the final conversation before polling day to be about national security. To that end, they have picked a fight with Romney over how solid he has been in his support of the Iraq war. McCain is also speaking here at a ship yard with several of his national security surrogates.

Two wild cards that could influence the result: the state of the union and the death of the head of the Mormon Church. If President Bush tonight drives the national conversation back to Iraq, then McCain benefits. If the address is dominated by the economy then that helps Romney's message. While the passing of the leader of the Mormon Church could sadly push the issue of Romney's faith to the front of voters' minds.

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Cotyaeum

January 28th, 2008 4:17pm

"the passing of the leader of the Mormon Church could sadly push the issue of Romney's faith to the front of voters' minds" 'Sadly'? Is Romney's faith less worthy of consideration than, say, his economic competence? Do you see it as an unfair disadvantage that he is labelled with the tag 'Mormon'? Surely not, since he could renounce it at any time. Clearly it is something he believes in strongly, in which case it necessitates consideration just as much as any other aspect of the public or private policy of a candidate for public office. Indeed I would say it is especially important, given the nature of faith - an absolute, unshakeable belief irrespective of all evidence or logical consideration. Is Mormonism really that 'safe' as a set of principles that we are happy to see it adopted as absolute by the most powerful man in the world? Is any religion?