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What will Rudy do next?

James Forsyth

Tuesday, 29th January 2008

When news filtered through to the reporters covering McCain that Rudy Giuliani’s travelling press corps had been given signed baseballs by the candidate it was seen as the strongest hint yet that he will drop out after the results are declared tonight. The conversation has now moved to what will Rudy do once he has dropped out—will he simply retreat from the public gaze or will he quickly endorse?

There is no doubt that Giuliani pulling out helps McCain as the two candidates both appeal to similar groups of voter: national security hawks, moderates and those looking for a strong leader. But a formal endorsement would be a nice boost for McCain, especially if he doesn’t win tonight and is in need of some good news.

The case for Rudy endorsing is, as Jonathan Martin argues, that McCain is likely to win the north eastern states where Rudy’s word is thought to carry the most clout so that he might as well throw his weight behind his friend with whom he is ideologically simpatico so that he can claim some of the credit when McCain picks up these states. (Rudy’s influence would appear strong as McCain, who has to compete in more than 20 states next Tuesday, would likely have Rudy hit the trail on his own for him up there.)

There is, though, a risk for Giuliani in endorsing McCain. If Romney were to win the nomination, then the former New York Mayor would have further undercut his position within the party. But still it is more likely than not that Rudy will throw his weight behind McCain.