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Shifting allegiances in the Democratic camp?

Freddie Sayers

Thursday, 31st January 2008

So John Edwards is out. The next Democratic Debate in California will be a head to head. The question on everyone's lips is - who is going to endorse whom? And what will it mean?

For a long time the presumption has been that John Edwards would eventually endorse Barack Obama – all that “we two are the candidates of change” stuff, and his enthusiastic skewering of Mrs Clinton at any opportunity. The conventional wisdom has been that Edwards and Obama have been dividing the ‘anti-Hillary’ vote: Edwards is polling around 14% still, and in theory his backing of Obama could push Barack over the victory line in a large number of states next Tuesday 5th.

But funny things have been happening recently. Now that Obama has become such a personality in his own right, and now that race has become such an issue in the campaign, Edwards and Hillary have begun to split the ‘anti-Obama’ vote (as in South Carolina). Edwards’ core demographic (blue-collar, unionized) is actually more supportive of Hillary than Obama, and Mrs Clinton is known to have met with Edwards after the debate in South Carolina last week. Could Edwards’ refusal to endorse anyone straight away signify a U-turn towards Hillary?

There are rumours flying that Bill Richardson might endorse Obama in the next two days. Again, conventional wisdom has been shaken recently. Richardson has always been pegged as a potential Hillary VP (he was the only one who was nice to her in the debates, he worked in the Clinton Administration, he delivers the Hispanic vote etc). But since Hillary has recently shown her ability to get out the Hispanic vote on her own, and since Richardson's gaffes in his final debate ("human rights are more important than national security", e.g.) Richardson must be realising that isn't so likely. I was in an Iowa caucus back on Jan 3rd where Richardson's precinct captain already had instructions from the campaign to support Obama if Richardson didn't make it past the 15% mark, so there are definitely now leanings in the Obama direction.

And if Richardson endorses Obama, does Joe Biden then come out for Hillary? Does all this happen before February 5th?

And then there is the speculation about Vice-Presidential nominees. Who would Hillary now choose if she wins the nomination? Now that relations with Obama are more frosty, and Richardson is out, the rumour is that Mark Warner of Virginia is back in the frame. He is considered a transformational figure a la Obama, which would add a little additional lustre to a Clinton ticket, he would deliver, at the least, Virginia (which makes the maths of a Republican victory that much harder) and most importantly, he is a millionaire businessman, which is just what Hillary needs if the Economy is the big issue and the Republican candidate is McCain (who is on record saying he doesn't understand economics!).

Something tells me its going to be a busy week.