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They both think they are winning

James Forsyth

Friday, 1st February 2008

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both think that they are the frontrunner. That’s the only explanation for why last night’s debate, the first with the just two of them, failed to catch fire with neither candidate taking any risks.

One can make a case that they are both right. Hillary still leads in the national polls and seems to be ahead in most of the Super Tuesday states, the traditional hallmarks of a frontrunner. Yet, the longer the nomination goes on the more likely it is that Obama will be the nominee. He’s gaining ground and pulling in enough organisational support, the California SEIU endorsed him today, to ensure that he avoids being knocked out by the Clintons on Tuesday.

It’s hard to say which one is better positioned but I would give Obama the slimmest of edges right now. His advantage is that Hillary as the de facto incumbent has already reached her ceiling of support while Obama can hope to gain. This suggests to me that Obama will do a fair bit better than the polls suggest he will on Super Tuesday and that should be enough for him to push on to states which are more favourable for him.

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Jacques-Pierre Croizat

February 5th, 2008 5:27pm

As a Franco-Anglo-Saxon with a sneaking admiration for the American electral system, I find the current primaries very much a non-event because, to me, the eventual outcome is now as plain as day for all to see. John McCain is already a racing certainty for the Republican nomination and, barring a total cardiac failure, will become the next President of the United States. This will happen for no other reason than, when the chips go down, 'Joe Six-Pack' is not yet ready to put either a woman or an African American into the White House irrespective of their perceived attributes or qualifications for the job.