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Why Romney can't gain traction

James Forsyth

Monday, 4th February 2008

Mitt Romney’s message is now 80 percent negative, going after McCain for all of his supposed violations of conservative orthodoxy. But for three reasons Romney can’t gain traction. First of all, McCain is rock solid on the most important issue of the day for most conservatives, the war. Even Romney surrogate Rick Santorum, an arch social conservative who lost his Senate seat in 2006, admitted to me that McCain couldn’t be criticised on the foreign side of things. This makes it difficult for Romney to make the charge that McCain is simply unacceptable stick. Second, he is hamstrung by his previously liberal positions. Romney talks about the Reagan coalition incessantly now but back in the 1990s he was keen to distance himself from the Reagan presidency. He is also having trouble reaching socially conservative voters who are suspicious of his recent conversion on these issues and drawn to Mike Huckabee who is heartfelt and consistent on these issues—the polling average puts Huckabee ahead of Romney here in Missouri. Finally, Romney just does not connect as a candidate should. This event at a Dave and Busters, a popular arcade, with the Superbowl in the background should have allowed him to humanise himself but instead served to highlight just how different he is from most voters. As part of the event Romney tucked into some buffet food which was greasy and fired but the look of disgust on Romney’s face as he bit in was priceless.

The polls suggest that Romney is behind in most of the big Super Tuesday states, and all the winner takes all ones, bar Massachusetts. If Romney doesn’t eke out a symbolic win in California, where he is close, it is hard to see how he can credibly continue.