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Obama's independent gain

James Campbell

Tuesday, 5th February 2008

On Fox News last night Dick Morris made the point that John McCain's 'front runner' status might tempt independents (voters not registered with either party) into voting for Barack Oabama as they assume that McCain is likely to win anyway. Both Obama and McCain are banking on the votes of independents in those states where they can vote in either party's primary, but McCain needs them more as he has greater problems with his party's base. For that reason he would prefer it if Clinton were doing better. The clearest indicator of how well the Republican base is warming to McCain will come from California as the GOP there has confined the primary to registered Republicans. If he tanks, it bodes ill for his ability to get the vote out as a general election nominee.

The California GOP's decision to exclude independent voters from their primary has turned out to be a boon for Obama as McCain would have been competing with him for their votes. Thus far non-aligned voters - who in California make up 19% of the electorate - have favoured him over Clinton by a large margin. Since they can't vote for McCain in the Republican primary, expect them to overwhelmingly support Obama.