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How long will the Democratic contest go on?

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 6th February 2008

Today the one thing that can be said with total certainty about the Democratic race is that it isn’t over. The nightmare for the Democratic party is that no candidate gains a decisive lead and the race ends up being settled at the convention in Denver amidst a furious row about whether delegates from Michigan and Florida, which were stripped of their delegates for holding their contests too early, should be seated and whether it is legitimate for super delegates to ignore the views of the primary electorate, a possibility that Obama addressed this morning.

Normally, I’m sceptical of predictions of a brokered conventions—it is what politics junkies dream of and most of the time it is wishful thinking. But this time round it really it is a distinct possibility because of the lock that both candidates appear to have on various key Democratic constituencies. One thing to watch over the next few weeks is whether either Clinton or Obama are prepared to go seriously negative to win. Noticeably, Obama used his speech last night to take several shots at Hillary after saying some warm words about her she took the high road.