The numbers and the super delegate to watch
Neither Barack Obama nor Hillary Clinton is going to arrive at the Democratic convention in Denver with enough pledged delegates to win the Democratic nomination. As this reality has dawned on people, there has been much fretting about how the unelected super delegates could determine who the nominee is. I think this is highly unlikely. The super delegates are all party elders and know what damage would be done if a group of insiders appeared to subvert the democratic process.
If one candidate leads on the three metrics of delegates won in primaries and caucuses, states won and the popular vote then the super delegates will almost certainly row in behind them. At the moment, Obama is narrowly ahead in all there categories. Things will get complicated, though, if—say—Obama has won more delegates but Hillary more votes, or if the margin of difference is determined by whether Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of their delegates for voting too early, are seated or not.
The person to watch in all this is Al Gore. When it comes to the fairness of elections, no Democrat has a higher standing. What he asks the super delegates and the candidates to do will carry huge weight at the convention. Indeed, his role is now so important that it is probably, on balance, better for the Obama campaign that he does not endorse now so that he is seen as an honest-broker at the convention.
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Herbert Thornton
February 10th, 2008 8:38pmThe remarkable thing about this campaign is that for the first time in many years it is demonstrating the power of oratory - and that the candidate possessing that gift is Obama.
I think that it may make James Forsyth's forecast of a tie between Obama and Clinton mistaken.