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A preview of McCain versus Obama

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 13th February 2008

Barack Obama is a difficult guy to run against as Hillary Clinton has found to her cost. He presents himself as the candidate of hope, the yes we can candidate and so if his opponent defines their persona against his they end up running against hope as the no we can’t candidate. One of Hillary’s biggest errors was to talk about false hope, which gave Obama the opening he needed to accuse Hillary of being ‘anti-hope’.

Last night, John McCain in his victory speech tried to burst Obama’s hope bubble but whiel casting himself as being on the side of hope. Here’s the key passage:

“Hope, my friends, is a powerful thing. I can attest to that better than many, for I have seen men’s hopes tested in hard and cruel ways that few will ever experience. And I stood astonished at the resilience of their hope in the darkest of hours because it did not reside in an exaggerated belief in their individual strength, but in the support of their comrades, and their faith in their country. My hope for our country resides in my faith in the American character, the character which proudly defends the right to think and do for ourselves, but perceives self-interest in accord with a kinship of ideals, which, when called upon, Americans will defend with their very lives.
To encourage a country with only rhetoric rather than sound and proven ideas that trust in the strength and courage of free people is not a promise of hope. It is a platitude.”

I think this line of attack has a better chance of working than Hillary’s. It is ‘pro-hope’ and uses McCain’s life experience, his trump card, to make the case. It is also part of a broader plan to paint Obama as another politician, to use Obama’s own rhetoric to trip him up. So, McCain ties the hope attack to this charge: “
They will promise to break with the failed politics of the past, but will campaign in ways that seek to minimize their exposure to questions from the press and challenges from voters who ask more from their candidates than an empty promise of “trust me, I know better.”
This line is so potent as reporters will seize on it as it is their self-interest for Obama to feel obliged to open up to the press more. From McCain’s point of view the situation is a win-win—if Obama takes more questions, there’s more of a chance he slips up. If he doesn’t, the press will hammer him for it.

There’s no doubt that Obama will be a formidable general election nominee, just look at how well he does with independents and even Republicans and how effective he is at boosting turn-out. But it seems that the McCain team already have a few plays that should work for them. Add that to the fact that Hillary is not going down without a fight and we seem set for a more even presidential contest than many people expect.

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Al

February 14th, 2008 1:44am

McCain may be able to paint Obama as another politician, but Obama is still a politician with vastly appealing views in America. Whether you like it or not.

McCain's "sound and proven ideas" such as going to war in Iraq, and supply-side economics don't look so sound and proven to most americans. (crazy I know!!!) Just look at opinion polls and voter turnout.

Having the same or nearly the same "specifics" as an administration with a 30-35% approval rating (Nixon's was 28% at the time of impeachment) isn't the best bet.

Obama's rhetoric is sure to change and get more specific (still focusing on major issues of course) once he's running against McCain, rather than fairly similar Clinton.

Simon Chapman

February 14th, 2008 12:30pm

What a terrific speech by John McCain. Thank you for linking to the whole text.

Ian C

February 14th, 2008 5:44pm

The key will be when Obama gets exposed to the ful scrutinty that the Primaries don't give. His voting record is extremely vulnerable as is his lack of experience and substance versus the non-Bush Republican, McCain, whose wider credibilty is likelyto stand close scrutiny.