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Tight in Texas

James Forsyth

Sunday, 2nd March 2008

The latest polls here in Texas show Obama to have the narrowest of leads. Considering that a third of the delegates from the Lone Star state will be awarded by a caucus, which plays to the Obama campaign’s organisational strength, Obama should pick up the most delegates here. However, if Hillary Clinton can eke out a victory in the popular vote this might be enough to allow her to credibly continue if she also wins in Ohio, where she has a slim lead.

Oddly enough, the problem for Obama is that he is competitive in both Texas and Ohio. The prospect of winning both states, which would knock Hillary out of the race, is such that he is splitting his time between the two states. His absence from Texas since Friday night has prevented him from sealing the deal here and with Hillary coming back for a big final push on Monday there is a chance that he could be edged out in the popular vote. Aware of the danger, his campaign is sending down some of his best surrogates to act as counter-programming to Hillary’s visit.

If Obama does win the popular vote in Texas then it will become very hard for Hillary Clinton to credibly continue. A win here would also send more super delegates—Hillary’s last chance—into Obama’s column.