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What will fill the gap?

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 5th March 2008

The Pennsylvania primary is seven weeks away. In politics, that’s an absolute age—the Iowa caucuses were only eight weeks ago. One of the big determinants of the result there will be what fills this gap.

Hillary Clinton would dearly love it to be filled by seven weeks worth of articles looking at Barack Obama’s links to Tony Rezko, the Chicago political fixer from whom Obama brought property and who is now on trial for corruption. While the Obama camp would like reporters to concentrate on Obama’s likely victories in Wyoming and Mississippi, his lead in the delegate count and on pushing the Clintons to release their recent tax returns. Of course, with a seven week gap, the election could end up being dominated by some shock event that hasn’t happened yet.

One definite impact that the gap will have is on how the candidates campaign. Already, the Obama folk have said that they plan to move away from their signature big rallies and instead put more emphasis on roundtables. If Clinton is smart she will do town halls every day in Pennsylvania: they are her best format, they allow her to show off her command of the policy detail and her more human side, and Obama’s worst. The sight of Clinton answering questions from voters every day will play to her narrative that she is the candidate who is ready to go from day one.

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Verity

March 6th, 2008 12:05am

Yes. Interesting point. I also heard that Hillary has sent out a weak signal, but a signal nevertheless, that she might consider Obama as a running mate. From the Left's point of view, this would make solid sense. Hillary, as the candidate, could play to her mastery of the details of government, her insider status in DC and her knowledge of foreign affairs. Obama's presence would serve to mop up the dreamy young people and the black professional classes. If Hillary won a second term and served it in full, Obama would have had eight years to learn all the things he doesn't know just now - like how DC works on the inside, how foreign policy works, and build his own alliance. Nightmare scenario for the Reps. If this works out, they might be looking at a 16 year scenario. Very bad for the world - but good for China and India who will be powering ahead without anyone in the White House paying much attention. My prediction: if the Dems manage to occupy the White House for 16 years, power will seep away from the United States. I don't mean hemhorrage - that certainly won't happen - but it will be the beginning of the ascendance of two very powerful and clever countries and a shift in the global balance.

Kevyn Bodman

March 6th, 2008 6:16am

Hillary should take your advice Meeting people, talking to them in townhall meeting and smaller groups breaks the false impression that she is unlikeable. Likeability is an enormous factor when Americans go to vote. And those meetings reinforce the impression she gives of expertise. But let's introduce a note of reality; she isn't really experienced, is she? Her husband is. But as Chris Rock said, although he's a successful comedian that doesn't mean his wife could go on stage and get laughs. Clinton should also encourage publicity of Obama walking out of a press question-and-answer session after only 8 questions. Don't like press qustions Senator Obama? Well boo-hoo. He should be shredded for that. I'd advise Clinton to get some plausible deniability in and then hammer Obama on his actions there. Cynical,yes. Effective, I think so.