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The numbers on Obama and Clinton and the too liberal question

James Forsyth

Wednesday, 26th March 2008

Texas Monthly, the national magazine of Texas and one of the best read out there, has a great write up of a bull session between two alumni of the Bush campaigns: Matthew Dowd and Mark McKinnon. Dowd famously broke with Bush in 2007 and is sitting this race out while Mark McKinnon is working for John McCain but has said he won't stick with the campaign if Obama is the Democratic nominee.

There is little that these two don't know about politics and some numbers that McKinnon cited are particularly worth thinking about:

McKinnon had data he attributed to pollster Bill McInturff showing the extent to which the public perceives various past and present Democratic candidates for president as "liberal." He said 39 percent of the public viewed Jimmy Carter as liberal, while 38 percent viewed Bill Clinton as liberal. Both, obviously, won. Al Gore was at 49 percent and John Kerry was at 56 percent. Hillary Clinton, McKinnon said, is at 52 percent, and Barack Obama is at 49 percent. He sees this as extremely problematic for them -- it puts them in league with the losers.

The problem for Obama and Clinton is that the longer the Democratic primary race goes on, the more the American public will get the impression that they are liberals. Meanwhile, McCain is busy burnishing his independent and centrist credentials.

ps Also worth noting that the McCain camp appears to have access to fresh research from Karl Rove's firm, proof that the Republican machine is roaring into gear for McCain.