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Wednesday 9 July 2008

Pennsylvanian permutations

The Obama camp clearly doesn’t think it has much chance of pulling off an upset in the Pennsylvania primary, the candidate will be in Indiana when the results come in. But with everyone expecting a Clinton victory, the key question is how much she wins by. Here’s Americano’s guide to how to interpret Hillary’s winning margin.

Four points or less: If Hillary only squeaks home in a state that she has family ties to and which is demographically suited to her, then it will be seen as a sign that this campaign is coming to an end. The Obama campaign will proclaim that the narrow margin shows that voters aren’t interested in Rev. Wright, his links to Bill Ayers, the fuss over his comment that small-town mid-Westerners cling to their guns and God in an uncertain world or any of the other negative stories that have hit him in recent weeks.

Four to eight points: The polling average has Hillary ahead by six, so this would be the average result. After it, no one would be talking about an instant Hillary drop-out but nor would she pick up much momentum for the May 6th contests in Indiana and North Carolina, and if she doesn’t win either of those she’ll come under huge pressure to drop out.

Eight to twelve points: This kind of margin would give Hillary a real boost and fuel talk that Obama can’t win over working class whites, a group which the Democrats have traditionally had to do well with to win a presidential election. It would also allow her campaign to argue that voters want this contest to continue, and aren’t convinced of either Obama’s readiness to be commander in chief or that he is fully vetted.

More than twelve points: This is game on territory. Obama would be rocked back on his heels and the press will rush in and declare that voters have been turned off by Rev Wright / Bill Ayers / the cling comments. There would be much thumb-sucking over whether Obama could assemble a general election winning coalition, can a Democrat who lost four of the five biggest Democratic states by double-digit margins  win in the fall? This kind of win would give Hillary an opening to make her case again and everyone would begin to talk about the Clintons’ ability to just keep coming back and this race would just keep rolling on.

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