Clemency suggests

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Carolina in my mind

James Forsyth

Saturday, 3rd May 2008

Barack Obama has had a bad few weeks. A heavy defeat in Pennsylvania has been followed by a renewed focus on Obama’s former pastor Rev Wright and his extreme views. The Indiana and North Carolina primaries on Tuesday will give us the first concrete evidence of the electoral impact of all this. Indeed, Tuesday’s results should give us an idea of how the rest of the Democratic primary season will play out.

If Obama were to win both, which is unlikely but not impossible, Hillary will come under huge pressure to drop out. Equally, if Hillary were to win both—which would be a real shock result—then Obama would suddenly be in danger of seeing the nomination slip away from him.

The most likely result is that Obama wins North Carolina and Clinton Indiana, in the polling averages they lead by seven and six respectively. But the margins are going to be key. If Obama can wrap up a big win in North Carolina on a large turnout he would push his popular vote lead up to such a margin that Hillary couldn’t get ahead of it even if Michigan and Florida’s votes are counted and if Hillary doesn’t lead in some version of the popular vote she is not going to be able to persuade the super delegates that they should go against the will of the pledged, elected delegates. However, if Hillary can keep Obama’s margin in North Carolina down to a couple of points and win big in Indiana then she’ll fuel concerns about his electability.

I’m heading out to North Carolina tomorrow morning and will report back on the mood on the ground.