Clemency suggests

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Pick your polling poison

James Forsyth

Monday, 5th May 2008

The USA Today poll suggests that the Democratic race really might have turned. It finds that among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents Clinton now leads nationally by seven, compared to a ten point advantage for Obama just a fortnight ago. Clinton is also now seen as the stronger candidate against John McCain—a dramatic shift from the previous poll where by a 33 percent margin Obama was seen as the best candidate for the general election. The damage seems to have been done by the Rev Wright affair which eight out of ten voters say they are following closely. The elitism charge also seems to have hurt with more Democratic supporters now saying that Clinton shares their values.

By contrast, The New York Times poll seems to suggest that Obama has pulled out of a nosedive. 60 percent of voters say he has handled the Wright affair well while there is heavy cynicism about Clinton’s plan to suspend the gas tax.

This volatility in the polls makes Tuesday’s primaries all the more important. If Obama does worse than expected it will be seen as proof that he has been severely wounded by the Wright affair. By contrast, if he outperforms expectations then it will be taken as proof that he can take a punch and get right back up.