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Wednesday 9 July 2008

What will happen tomorrow night?

Raleigh, North Carolina

The Obama campaign has yet to declare where their candidate will spend tomorrow night. You can either interpret this as a sign of confidence—they think that they have a chance of winning Indiana and sealing the deal—or nerves—they worry that North Carolina is not the lock that it seems.

The Obama campaign’s own post  Super-Tuesday projection had Obama winning both states and Obama himself has called Indiana a “tie-breaker” but the conventional wisdom now expects Clinton to win Indiana handily and limit Obama’s margin in North Carolina. Certainly, the Clinton team seem to have more energy right now. One local journalist I spoke to at the Obama event even thought there was a chance that Clinton could pull off a shock upset here.

Certainly, tomorrow represents Obama’s last chance to close this race out early; many of the states that follow definitely favour Clinton. Considering this, his campaign here seems oddly listless. I’m in the strongest part of the state for him and yet have seen far fewer Obama yard signs than in previous states. Now this might just be election fatigue but it does suggest that his campaign might not have the enthusiasm it needs for a big win. Combine that with Bill Clinton assiduous campaigning in small towns and that Hillary has the field director here who masterminded her impressive performances in California and Texas and you can see this as being closer than people expect. On the other hand, early voting turnout has been high and African-Americans have made up more than 40 percent of early voters. There’s also chance that, as in South Carolina, the polls could be underestimating Obama’s support because black voters are for understandable historical reasons wary of talking to pollsters.

One potential boon for Obama in Indiana is that it is an open primary and Republicans and independents in the parts of Indiana that receive Illinois TV might come out in surprising force for him. Also Obama is still, even after his month of woe, still picking up super delegates at a faster clip than Clinton.  

As a rough benchmark, Obama needs to win in North Carolina by a larger margin than Clinton does in Indiana if he is stem the flow of stories about his various weaknesses. A narrow win here would mean that he’s lost pretty much every white demographic, not a helpful message for him and one that will spark yet more talk about how much damage the Rev Wright affair has done him. While the larger Clinton’s margin in Indiana, the more coverage will be devoted to Obama’s problems with white working class voters.

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