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Why North Carolina is so important to Obama

James Forsyth

Tuesday, 6th May 2008

North Carolina is not only Obama’s last best chance to rack up a huge popular victory it is also key to his argument about electability. The polls in the traditional big battleground states—Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida—, for what they are worth, show Clinton outperforming Obama. But the Obama campaign has long argued that their candidate can expand the map in a way that Hillary cannot. Key to this argument is the upper south. Virginia and North Carolina are both states where the Obama folk think they can play in November, pointing to significant African-America populations and a rapidly increasing number of affluent, white graduates in these states.

Yet if Obama pulls out only a narrow victory, losing whites in every age group, that argument will take a huge knock. Considering how key electability is going to be for the undeclared super delegates, a failure to win big here would be doubly damaging to Obama.