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Sunday 7 September 2008

McCain's VP weekend

This weekend John McCain is hosting several of the people most frequently touted as possible running mates for him at his ranch. Considering McCain’s age, if elected he’d be the oldest ever first-term president, there then is going to be particular attention paid to his pick. Here’s the guest list and the pros and cons of each of them as possible VP candidates.

Charlie Crist, Governor of Florida:

Pro: A governor of a swing state with impressive approval ratings is always going to be an attractive option as a running mate. Add to that, Crist’s impressive media-handling skills and that one can imagine him as president without stretching the imagination too hard and you can see why so many people think that he will be McCain’s choice. Also, Crist is a moderate Republican who is likely to enhance the ticket’s appeal to independent voters.

Con:  If Tony and Cherie were friends with Crist they would urge him to get married and become a family man as that’s what the voters prefer. Also, Florida is a swing state that McCain should carry against Obama regardless of whether or not Crist is on the ticket. The final ding on Crist is that he has no national security experience

Bobby Jindal, Governor of Louisiana:

Pro:  Jindal , the son of Indian immigrants,  is the most impressive young Republican politician in the country. He is crazy smart, he was a Rhodes scholar, and is a healthcare expert and so would be a credible salesperson for McCain’s health-care plan. Also, picking a second-generation immigrant who is governor of Louisiana would play to McCain’s theme of being a different Republican. At the same time, Jindal is a solid social conservative which could ease some of McCain's problems with that section of the party.

Con: Jindal’s youth, he is only 36, could end up emphasising McCain’s age rather than off-setting it—Jindal actually looks even younger than he is. Picking a non-white VP would dispel the media image of the Republicans as a party of angry white. Yet, there is a risk that it could come across as a desperate attempt to match Obama’s appeal   He is also relatively inexperienced having only served as governor of Louisiana for less than a year although prior to that he had served in the House and in the Bush administration. Like Crist, he has no national security experience.      

Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts

Pro: Romney has the economic and management creds that McCain lacks. As the son of a Michigan politician, he could also help McCain capitalise on Obama’s strained relation with the state—he skipped its primary as it violated DNC rules and now, understandably, opposes seating the delegated elected in this unlicensed election. He would also bring one of the most formidable fundraising operations in US politics to the ticket.

Con:  McCain and Romney exchanged fairly vicious barbs in the primaries. So, the Democrats could have a lot of fun with what they said about each other if the two were running together. McCain, and his campaign team, also seem to have a rather visceral reaction to Romney. Then, there’s the issue that in a year where economic populism is rife someone with Romney’s record as a management consultant and venture capitalist could find himself on the receiving end of a bunch of flak, One other possible cross against him is the Mormon issue—the Republican primaries did seem to suggest that some voters are, regrettably, reluctant to vote for a Mormon.

Meg Whitman, former CEO of Ebay

Pro: A female free of Washington baggage is an attractive prospect in a change election where the Democratic candidate has just come through a bruising primary battle with the first serious female presidential contender. Picking the head of a tech company, would also be a way of sending a signal to voters that despite his age McCain very much lives in the 21st century.

Con: Whitman has never run for office so she is both not used to the cut and thrust  of politics and has not been vetted. Considering McCain’s age, it could be fatal to the ticket’s chances if she had a deer in the headlights moment. Equally, there could be aspects of her business record that the Democrats could demagogue. Then there is the question about how the party would react to having a political neophyte parachuted to the head of the succession line. Like Crist and Jindal, she also has no national security experience.

Sam Brownback, Senator from Kansas

Pro: Brownback represents the new religious right—as concerned with the genocide in Darfur as gay marriage. He can appeal to this section of the Republican party in a way that McCain can not. His work in the Senate has also included a decent amount of foreign-policy stuff meaning that he is credible on national security.

Con: Brownback’s presidential bid failed to get going, he dropped out before the Iowa caucuses and endorsed McCain, and he has lost the role of leader of this wing of the party to Mike Huckabee. There is also a risk that Brownback, with his strict stances on social issues, could cut into McCain’s appeal to independents.

Fred Smith, founder and chairman of Fed Ex

Pro: A decorated Vietnam vet with precisely the kind of managerial experience that McCain lacks. Fed EX is also a company from which a presidential ticket would benefit from being associated with; most Americans would be delighted if the Federal government was as efficient as Fed Ex.

Con: As with Whitman, there’s a considerable risk in putting an un-vetted political novice on the ticket.

Also in attendance will be Lindsey Graham, the Senator from South Carolina who normally always joins McCain on his travels. Graham has ruled himself out of the VP slot, he doesn’t bring much to the ticket that McCain doesn’t, but will get a very senior role if there is a McCain administration.

The VP pick is far from certain to come from this list. Several other possible candidates—Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty, former homeland security chief and Pennsylvania governor Tom Ridge, and former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee—had scheduling conflicts. There are also several others, including Rob Portman from Ohio and New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, who have not been invited but are thought to be under consideration.

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