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McCain and Obama level-pegging

James Forsyth

Sunday, 25th May 2008

New poll numbers from Newsweek show Obama and McCain running dead level. Some Republicans are concerned that McCain hasn’t used the extended Democratic primary season to open up a lead against Obama—who will probably get a significant boost when he is confirmed as the Democratic nominee—but when you consider the political environment that McCain is running in it is remarkable that he is so competitive.

Jon Meacham of Newsweek neatly summed up just how bad things are for the Republicans on Meet the Press today:

Jon Meacham: I keep trying to call the new misery index--it's not catching on as it, as it should. So try for me.
MS. IFILL: Here we go!
MR. MEACHAM: Here we go--which is, if you add up the wrong track number with--the people who think the country's on the wrong track--with the number of people who disapprove of the president's performance, it's 152 percent. That's a pretty tough thing for a Republican. It's hard to imagine a worse year for a Republican to run. And yet he's running even with both Clinton and Obama.

The other thing that should give the McCain campaign hope is that he will find it easier once the Democratic race is over to get press coverage. At the moment, he is only ever an afterthought in most stories.

There’s no doubt that the rows about the lobbying ties of various McCain aides and the pastor flaps have prevented the campaign from getting out its message. But McCain’s 2013 speech showed that he does have an agenda. He now just needs to sell it.

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Murray

May 26th, 2008 9:03am

Fallacy #1:the percentage who think that the country is on the wrong track does not = support for Democrats
Fallacy #2: the President is less popular than the Congress, in fact the Dem controlled Congress has been less popular than Bush in every poll since 2006.
I'll say it one last time, when this is over, the Dems will wish they had not nominated an inexperienced candidate from their left wing

Ian C

May 26th, 2008 10:39am

Murray, you sound about right to my simple way of thinking. If Obama is not high double digit in front by mid-July he will go backwards from there.

This is still the Dems to lose but a centrist Republican of long experience (who was trashed by Bush in 2000) is a strong competitor compared to the lefty Dems. candidates on offer.

And when you have someone like Gore Vidal effectively saying they are all as mad as each other except Clinton, then she must be the one candidate who is not going to get the job.

TGF UKIP

May 26th, 2008 1:32pm

McCain's problem is that he is in a bit of a cleft stick. While he may need every last vote from the Republican base, embracing them too fully may alienate many independents who have supported him in the past. Equally, if he goes too far in embracing non-partisanship, such as Lieberman for running mate, he risks losing the right.

Neither is Obama likely to give him too much assistance once (and if ) he has the Nomination. Once free of the need to pander to MoveOn.org and the other Democrat loonies he will move rapidly to the centre and as Nov 4th is a long way away and as the public has the political attention span of a bluebottle, his primaries footprints will be almost invisible.

Having said all that I still think he's brittle and flyweight, but McCain will have to eschew too much of the Mr Nice Old Guy bit and go for him good and proper. I still reckon my 33/1 bet on McCain is as good as wheat in the bin but it's going to be a good spectator sport.

And meanwhile, the Clintons are still digging away in Chicago with the Republicans ready to take over the search if they run out of time.