Obama and Hillary go one on one

Tonight’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is taking place in the Kodak theatre, the traditional venue for the Oscars, but one feels that a boxing ring might be more appropriate. With only two candidates on stage there is nothing to defuse the tension or stop the situation from escalating. Add to that, the fact that there is little love lost between the two of them and it seems that fireworks are guaranteed.

The question is which candidate goes on the attack first; neither will want to look like the one...

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Reform Republicanism

On the stump, John McCain likes to tell voters “judge me by the company I keep” before rattling off a list of key supporters and a look at who is backing McCain is revealing. McCain has attracted the support of, what you might call, the reformist hawks. Rudy Giuliani, Arnold Schwarzenegger, former Homeland Security Head Tom Ridge, Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, Florida Governor Charlie Crist, 9/11 Commission Chair Tom Keen and South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham all represent a strain of Republicanism which emphasises the reform agenda of the radical centre and a values-led,...

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A general problem for Obama

National Journal just ranked him as the most liberal senator. While that probably helps him in the primaries, it opens up a Republican attack line for the fall if Obama is the nominee.

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Contemporary Architecture

Whatever you think of him, there are few smarter people in politics than Karl Rove and his essay in the Wall Street Journal on the new rules of the game is well worth reading. His most interesting point is about how you reach voters: 

“Voters are discounting advertising. They may be blocking out ads, relying more on personal exposure, information from social networks, alternative information sources like talk radio and the Internet, and local media coverage. By Feb. 5, when it costs $16 million to burn one television spot in every state

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In the money

The Obama campaign have just announced that they rasied $32 million in January--that's more than a million bucks a day. Interestingly, their best day was the one after the New Hampshire primary.

With this amount of cash coming in, Obama can both afford to compete across the nation on Super Tuesday and carry on afterwards even if he has a not so great night. This contest is going to run and run.

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Shifting allegiances in the Democratic camp?

So John Edwards is out. The next Democratic Debate in California will be a head to head. The question on everyone's lips is - who is going to endorse whom? And what will it mean?

For a long time the presumption has been that John Edwards would eventually endorse Barack Obama – all that “we two are the candidates of change” stuff, and his enthusiastic skewering of Mrs Clinton at any opportunity. The conventional wisdom has been that Edwards and Obama have been dividing the ‘anti-Hillary’ vote: Edwards is polling around...

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The Reagan Library Debate

So far, so good for McCain. Mitt Romney is on the defensive while Mike Huckabee is preventing Romney from going mano a mano with McCain with a typically witty performance.

McCain is successfully depicting himself as a Reagan disciple which is blunting Romney's attacks. If the debate carries on like this, Team McCain will be ecstatic.

Romney then messes up a question on immigration, the issue where he had the best chance of drawing a contrast with McCain. Meanwhile, Huckabee keeps up the quips. There are few politicians who are as quick on...

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Decision time for Mitt

Tonight’s Republican debate at the Reagan Library in California is Mitt Romney’s last best chance to stop John McCain. Romney needs a powerful, game-changing moment if he is to prevent McCain from pretty much wrapping things up on Super Tuesday.

The problem for Romney is that there are several obstacles to this. First, the debate comes just a day after he has lost the most important primary so far. Attacking McCain aggressively, could just look like sour grapes. Second, McCain has a defender on stage in Mike Huckabee. Throughout this contest, McCain...

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Edwards exits stage left, who benefits?

John Edwards’s departure from the presidential race was a surprise. Considering that he didn’t pull out after only receiving four percent support in the Nevada caucuses or coming in third in his native South Carolina it is puzzling he has chosen to do so now especially as there is still a slim chance of a brokered convention where Edwards could have played kingmaker.

It seems that there will be no instant endorsement from Edwards and opinion is divided on who his withdrawal helps most. In my opinion, it is...

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How McCain helps Cameron

John McCain’s victory last night and the fact that he is now the most likely Republican nominee is great news for those on the centre right who value the special relationship. McCain translates in a way that George W. Bush simply does not and will be far harder to demonise than the current president. British leaders will not have to fear the political effects of being seen with McCain.

On a more substantive level, McCain is good news for Atlanticists Conservatives. First, McCain understands how to fight this war better than any...

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