Friday 5 September 2008

 

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Clemency Burton-Hill
Clemency Burton-Hill

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American Election blog
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Thursday, 31st July 2008

The race card controversy

James Forsyth 11:53pm

Yesterday, Barack Obama said:

"So nobody really thinks that Bush or McCain have a real answer for the challenges we face, so what they're going to try to do is make you scared of me. You know, he's not patriotic enough. He's got a funny name. You know, he doesn't look like all those other Presidents on those dollar bills, you know. He's risky. That's essentially the argument they're making."

The line about the dollar bills did seem like an attempt—unfair to my mind—to suggest that the Republicans were trying to draw attention to Obama’s race and...

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Wednesday, 30th July 2008

New McCain ad mocks Obama as a celebrity

James Forsyth 6:06pm


The ad is a recognition of just how much this election is about Obama and it risks stoking the storyline that McCain is running an angry campaign. But it could be effective in tapping into the idea that for all the hype Obama hasn't actually achieved that much.

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Tuesday, 29th July 2008

A polling health warning

James Forsyth 7:29pm

NBC's First Read issues a much-needed reminder not to exaggerate the importance of any single poll:

Gallup, Gallup, Gallup: As many readers know, we're not fans of the Gallup tracking poll and yesterday was more proof why. Gallup has two samples out -- one (the daily tracking) with Obama up eight points and another (conducted for USA Today) with McCain up four points among likely voters and with Obama up three among registered voters. Somehow, technically, one can claim this all falls inside the various margins of error. But it's results like these that should remind us that
...

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Monday, 28th July 2008

McCain gets a break as new poll shows him four points ahead of Obama

James Forsyth 10:42pm

John McCain has not had much luck recently. Last week while Obama was receiving acres of news coverage and using iconic sights as the backdrop to his photo-ops, McCain was struggling to stay in the news and had to cancel his planned photo-op on an oil rig because of the conditions. The press were beginning to write stories filled with quotes from irritated Republicans about where it is all going wrong for the campaign. Today just to compound things, the news broke that McCain—who has had skin cancer in the past—has...

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100 days to go

James Forsyth 6:53pm

At this stage in the race, Obama’s campaign has more to feel satisfied about than McCain’s. Obama is ahead in the polls, his campaign is staying on message and the stagecraft behind his events remains impressive. But in a favourable year for Democrats, Obama has not yet accrued the kind of polling lead that would suggest this contest is all done bar the shouting.

The McCain campaign needs a shot in the arm and the most obvious way for it to get it is with a bold VP choice. In recent days,...

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Sunday, 27th July 2008

Obama recalibrates on Iraq

James Forsyth 4:22pm

Obama’s overseas trip appears to have led to at least one major shift in emphasis in his foreign policy thinking. In a Newsweek interview, he was asked how big a force he would leave behind in Iraq to conduct counter-terrorism operations and to train up Iraqi forces. Here’s how he replied:

“I do think that's entirely conditions-based. It's hard to anticipate where we may be six months from now, or a year from now, or a year and a half from now.”

To be sure, Obama has long talked about...

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Saturday, 26th July 2008

Rove's map has Obama reaching 270 without any of the toss-up states

James Forsyth 6:39pm

As Obama prepares to fly back to the US, Karl Rove’s electoral map—based on average of publicly available polling—has Obama passing the magic 270 mark without any votes from the toss-up states. (To be fair, as First Read points out, the map doesn’t include various state polls which came out at the end of this week which were more favourable to McCain.)

The map gives you an idea of how much work McCain has to do. It also helps explain why Obama is advertising in some traditionally Republican states, if...

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Friday, 25th July 2008

The test of the trip

James Forsyth 6:37pm

There is just the London leg of Obama’s tour left and his campaign must be pretty pleased with how it has all gone. But the trip has not shifted the race decisively, McCain remains within striking distance in polls which conducted their fieldwork during the trip.

We’ll know the true value of the trip to Obama in about a week or two, once it has sunk in and the polls ask again the Commander in Chief question. If his week abroad has allowed Obama to substantially reduce McCain’s lead on...

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Thursday, 24th July 2008

Not up there with Kennedy or Reagan's but Obama's Berlin speech did its job

James Forsyth 7:36pm

‘Politics stops at the water’s edge’ is one of the most frequently invoked rules in US politics, so giving a campaign speech overseas carried a risk for Obama. However, he carried it off fairly well and his campaign will have been delighted by the visuals; the paean to America with which he ended the speech was pitch-perfect for campaign ad.

The Obama campaign’s decision to start the speech with the Berlin airlift was astute as it allowed Obama to praise the city he was speaking in and deploy some good...

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Obama is dominating the news but still hasn't pulled out of sight in the polls

James Forsyth 6:11pm

As Barack Obama prepares for his speech in Berlin this evening, his campaign must be delighted with how his overseas tour has gone so far. Obama has got through the Afghan, Iraqi, Jordanian and Israeli legs of the trip without making any gaffes and has dominated the news coverage all week while the visuals have helped Obama in his quest to look presidential. However, two new polls out today show that McCain is hanging on in there.

In the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, McCain trails by six points. In some...

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