What's next?

With Barack Obama on holiday and Hillary Clinton down at her house in New York, there’s a slight lull in the Democratic campaign and a chance for us to think about how this all might end. The first thing to note is that if Obama is ahead in the popular vote, as he currently is, as well as in  pledged delegates then he will—barring some unforeseen disaster—be the nominee. The super delegates are not going to buck the will of the people in such an obvious way and risk splitting the Democratic Party for...

Continue reading...

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comments (1)

There's quotable and then there's Carville

James Carville's take on Bill Richardson's endorsement of Barack Obama is a classic bit of Rajun Cajun speak and reveals just how irked the Clintonistas are that a man who was appointed to two cabinet positions by Bill Clinton not backing Hillary.

“An act of betrayal,” said James Carville, an adviser to Mrs. Clinton and a friend of Mr. Clinton.

“Mr. Richardson’s endorsement came right around the anniversary of the day when Judas sold out for 30 pieces of silver, so I think the timing is appropriate, if ironic,” Mr. Carville said, referring to Holy Week."

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comment

Like father, like daughter

John McCain’s age is, sadly, going to be an issue in this campaign. If he wins in November, he would be the oldest president ever elected to a first term and a recent poll suggested that as many as 40 percent of voters worry about McCain’s age.  One of McCain’s main assets in trying to defusing the age issue will be his three twenty-something children. One of his sons—who is actually 19 but will be 20 this summer—has just returned from Iraq and his other is at the Naval Academy...

Continue reading...

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comments (1)

A big get for Obama

The last fortnight has not been good for Barack Obama, the whole row over his pastor’s racially divisive remarks has threatened his entire political identity. But the math still favours him becoming the Democratic nominee and the decision not to hold do-overs in Florida and Michigan will make it hard for Hillary to overtake him in the popular vote, which she would need to do if she is going to have a case to make to the super delegates who will ultimately decide the nomination.

It is, perhaps, a reflection of that...

Continue reading...

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comment

Obama's take on the race question

Barack Obama’s speech on race today is that rare thing a political speech worth reading in full. Perhaps, the boldest thing that Obama attempted was to try and explain the context of Rev Wright’s racially divisive remarks.

"This [the legacy of slavery and segregation] is the reality in which Reverend Wright and other African-Americans of his generation grew up.  They came of age in the late fifties and early sixties, a time when segregation was still the law of the land and opportunity was systematically constricted.  What’s remarkable is not how

Continue reading...

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comments (8)

Obama's troublesome priest

The speech that Barack Obama will deliver today on race in America will be a defining moment for his candidacy. The last week has seen more and more come about Obama’s pastor’s divisive racial views and Obama will need to explain to people how he came to admire a man whose politics are so at odds with what Obama espouses.

To date, Obama has argued that the Rev Wright is his pastor not his political adviser. But listening to sections of Wright’s sermons it is clear that they were highly political. Certainly, if John McCain regularly attended a church where the preacher said similarly extreme things it would be regarded by many as making him unfit to be President.

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comments (5)

How McCain wants to define his candidacy

Today is the 35th anniversary of John McCain’s release from a prisoner of war camp in Vietnam. His campaign has put out a video as they try to emphasise McCain’s biography. It is well worth watching for a flavour of how McCain is going to present himself to the electorate in the months ahead.

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comment

Today's campaign spat

Anyone who thought that today’s James Carville op-ed in the FT calling on partisans on both sides of the Democratic divide to calm down marked the beginning of a rapprochement between the Clinton and Obama campaign was mistaken. Greg Craig, a key Obama adviser, has just been on the radio accusing Hillary of resume inflation when it comes to her national security experience. Here’s the quote:

“I think she is misleading the American public on the nature of her experience.”

Continue reading...

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comment

Could the Republicans--against all the odds--win again?

A new NBC / Wall Street Journal poll shows what a miracle it is that the Republicans have a nominee who is competitive in the general. McCain holds both Obama and Clinton to leads within the margin of error despite the Democrats having a 50-37 advantage on a generic presidential ballot, a 48-34 lead on party identification and a 24 percent higher net favourability rating. Yet, still 52 percent of Republican primary voters say they would have preferred someone else.

The internals of the poll provide more encouragement for McCain. He...

Continue reading...

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comments (2)

Half of those who voted in the Democratic primary in Mississippi don't trust Hillary

Just how bitter this Democratic race has got is demonstrated by the fact that 50 percent of those voting in the Mississippi primary yesterday thought that Hillary Clinton is not honest or trustworthy. The exit poll contained lots of other worrying data for Democrats: 30 percent would be dissatisfied with Obama as the nominee and 41 percent with Clinton, Obama only received 26 percent of the white vote while Hillary got a mere 8 percent of black votes.

Considering Mississippi’s history, it is fairly unsurprising that the primary was so racially...

Continue reading...

Email to a friend  |   Permalink  |   Comment