Friday, 9th May 2008
James Forsyth 6:22pm
The presidency is the GOP’s best chance of a win in this year’s national elections, it is almost certain that the Democrats will expand their majorities in the House and the Senate. The consequences of a presidential defeat could be dire for the Republicans and not just for the reason that it would see them lose the White House.
McCain is sending every signal that he will not push some buttons the Republican base wants him to. For instance, McCain—who believes in comprehensive immigration reform—isn’t going to demagogue the immigration issue. He...
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Thursday, 8th May 2008
James Forsyth 7:42pm
Time’s analysis of why the Clinton campaign failed is well worth reading. One anecdote in it, in particular, is generating a lot of buzz here in DC: As aides looked over the campaign calendar, chief strategist Mark Penn confidently predicted that an early win in California would put her over the top because she would pick up all the state's 370 delegates. It sounded smart, but as every high school civics student now knows, Penn was wrong: Democrats, unlike the Republicans, apportion their delegates according to vote totals, rather than allowing
...
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James Forsyth 3:13pm
There’s no sign yet that Hillary is preparing to exit the race. Last night at a fundraiser for her female supporters she declared: “When I was counted out in New Hampshire, it was the women of New Hampshire who came back and said no, she’s not finished yet,” Clinton also said. “When I was counted out before Super Tuesday, it was women from
...
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Wednesday, 7th May 2008
James Forsyth 5:42pm
With the Clinton campaign almost done, the post-mortems are starting. There’ll be lots of hand-wringing about why the Clintons ceded a bunch of states to Obama, why the message was so confused until March and why the campaign shied away from humanising her. But I think the campaign’s fundamental error actually happened at the very start of the process, just after Obama declared he was running. At that point, the Clinton campaign had two options: kill him by kindness or just take him down. The former would have been the best option...
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James Forsyth 2:40pm
The Clinton camp are desperate to show she's not giving up. They've just added an event in West Virginia, the next state to vote, to her schedule for today and revealed that she has loaned her campaign $6.4 million and is prepared to lend more.
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James Forsyth 8:27am
It might have been a split decision but with Obama winning North Carolina by 14 points and coming within twenty-odd thousand votes of Clinton in Indiana it was an emphatic points victory for Obama that puts him on the brink of winning the nomination. Hillary Clinton’s downbeat appearance tonight suggested that she knows the game is almost up.
On Tuesday morning, the rough metric everyone was using was would Clinton win Indiana by more than Obama won North Carolina. In the end, there was no contest: North Carolina was called...
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James Forsyth 6:19am
Finally, the vote is in from Lake County and the networks can call Indiana for Hillary. Considering just how dodgy the delay seemed to many, Clinton surrogates were crying foul on TV pointing to the fact that the Mayor of the city which was holding it all up is a vocal Obama backer, it might just be a good thing for the Obama campaign that they did not win Indiana in these circumstances.
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James Forsyth 2:43am
Speaking to his supporters in North Carolina just now, Obama congratulated Clinton on her 'apparent victory' in Indiana. With 75 percent of the vote in, Hillary leads 52 to 48. CBS remains the only network to have called the state for Clinton, though.
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James Forsyth 12:34am
Within seconds of the poll closing here, the networks have called this state for Obama suggesting that he has won by at least ten points. The more of a margin Obama can run up here the harder it will be for Clinton to get past him in the popular vote.
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James Forsyth 12:30am
One note of caution to attach to these numbers is that the exits have tended to over-estimate Obama's support. But if Clinton has only won by four in Indiana then that's a pretty decent result for Obama with him looking like he'll win by a better margin than expected here in North Carolina.
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