Why are Obama voters so much more likely to vote for Clinton in November than vice-versa?

The number that is making waves from the exit polls is that less than half of Clinton supporters in both Indiana and North Carolina say they would vote for Obama in the general election. In Indiana, 33 percent said they'd vote for McCain and 17 percent that they simply wouldn't show up. In North Carolina, the number saying they'd cross over and vote McCain rose to 38 percent while 12 percent said they'd stay away. By contrast, 59 percent and 70 percent of Obama supporters in Indiana and North Carolina say they would vote Clinton in November. 

The Clinton camp will certainly hope that these numbers give the super delegates pause. But these same exits suggest that she has missed the chance to pile the pressure on Obama, with him emerging with a strengthened position in delegates and the popular vote after tonight. 

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Your primary questions answered

The Washington Post and The New York Times have invaluable guides to the Indiana and North Carolina primaries in their respective editions today. If this race doesn’t end today, then it is going to go all the way through the remaining contests.  

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Arianna Huffington claims McCain told her that he didn't vote for Bush in 2000

This story is going to get obscured by today’s primaries and it has already been denied by the McCain campaign but Arianna Huffington’s claim that the McCains told her at a dinner party soon after the 2000 election that they didn’t vote for Bush is extraordinary. Personally, I’m sceptical as I don’t see why Huffington would sit on such a great scoop for more than seven years. But McCain is fortunate that this claim wasn’t made during the Republican primaries when it  might have gained traction.

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Late Night Bill

Bill Clinton’s final event of the day in Raleigh epitomised both his strengths and weaknesses in this campaign. Speaking on the back of a pick up, Bill was in his element. He did nothing to downplay expectations, beginning the event by asking ‘You going to go out and win this thing for Hillary?’ and ending with the line ‘you go out and win it for her North Carolina.’  He went on to stress how Hillary would be a president ‘for those who people who need a president.’ (The effect of this populist shtick...

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Why North Carolina is so important to Obama

North Carolina is not only Obama’s last best chance to rack up a huge popular victory it is also key to his argument about electability. The polls in the traditional big battleground states—Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida—, for what they are worth, show Clinton outperforming Obama. But the Obama campaign has long argued that their candidate can expand the map in a way that Hillary cannot. Key to this argument is the upper south. Virginia and North Carolina are both states where the Obama folk think they can play in...

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