As Turnbull struggles, Abbott’s moment arrives

Wednesday, 1st July 2009

The post-Utegate confusion is a perfect opportunity for the shadow families minister, says Ross Fitzgerald

There are plenty of wannabes who could put their hand up in any post-Turnbull leadership contest. Julie Bishop, although badly burned by the experience of shadow treasurer, could possibly be talked into running by the influential West Australian lobby. Andrew Robb is well respected and capable, but has little charisma and almost no frontline experience. Peter Dutton impresses colleagues but probably needs another five years before he is a credible leadership candidate.

That leaves Tony Abbott, who is now by far the most senior surviving member of the Howard government. Abbott was a very effective minister in difficult portfolios and, after Costello, was the Liberals’ best parliamentarian. His ‘headkicker’ role was bad for his public image, but it also enabled him to demonstrate the resilience under fire that a party leader needs.

As well as being the coalition’s parliamentary ‘enforcer’ as Leader of the House, Abbott was the former government’s intellectual in residence, churning out fortnightly articles for the Sydney Morning Herald, debating Julia Gillard every Friday morning on the Today programme, and giving numerous scripted speeches prosecuting the conservative side of the culture wars. Unlike a great many parliamentarians, Abbott is actually committed to core principles and values.

Howard’s demise meant that, for a while, Abbott was seen as damaged goods. But unlike Costello, he didn’t retire to the backbenches and muse about the career he could have outside politics. My hunch is that the public would rather have an extraordinary than an ordinary Joe as their alternative prime minister. Against Hockey, Abbott would lose a likeability contest but he might quite easily win a leadership contest, especially if the book he’s publishing next month turns out to strike a chord.