Nail it, Tony!

Saturday, 4th February 2012

We asked a select group to offer the opposition leader advice on how to secure the next election

Alan Jones

Host of Sydney Radio 2GB’s top-rating breakfast program
Stick to your guns
Tony Abbott, Australia’s next Prime Minister! For that reason, those on the political Left will stop at nothing to undermine his legitimacy. This has already resulted in the malicious untruths told about him on Australia Day and the campaign to brand him as a leader prospering on negativity. There is nothing negative in saying that the carbon tax will be repealed. The statement gives hope to the millions of Australians who were lied to at the last election. Nor is there anything negative about saying he’ll stop the boats. A commitment to national security deserves no less.

Intellectually, Tony Abbott is one of the best-equipped individuals to have entered the national Parliament. This strength leads to clarity in thinking, simplicity in expression and conviction in the articulation of policy. All Tony Abbott has to do is to stick to his guns.

Barry Cohen

Former Labor MP and Hawke government minister
Play nice
When Tony Abbot became leader of the opposition, I wrote that Labor should contain its glee. The Left had developed a hatred of Abbott that bordered on the maniacal and believed the rest of Australia thought the same. Fighting an election against him would be too easy. They were a tad premature in my view. Abbott had a touch of the larrikin about him that I felt would appeal to the average Australian and if they underestimated him they would do so
at their peril.

But Abbott took the wrong approach. Like his predecessors, he took opposition to the extreme. No matter what the issue, he snapped and snarled at Julia in a way that offended many Australians. He simply could not find anything pleasant to say about the Labor party or Julia. Such vitriol goes down well at party meetings, Labor and Liberal, but like a lead balloon with the 20 per cent of uncommitted voters who determine elections. They not only want to agree with the policies of the alternate government, but like the person they intend to vote for. If Abbott ever wakes up to this and starts acting like a labrador instead of a rottweiler, Labor will be in more trouble than it is at the moment. Hard to believe, but true.

Alexander Downer

Former foreign minister and Liberal leader
Demonstrate good character
Tony Abbott can sweep into power next year if he achieves three things. First, he needs to convince the public of his character. Not that he is perfect — the public knows that nobody is — but that he is a decent, ethical and reliable person with a stable temperament. This shouldn’t be too hard because he is in fact all of those things, and more. Second, Abbott must convince voters he can run the place. To elect him and his Coalition colleagues to power, the public has to believe they are competent to manage the economy, the welfare system, education, health and foreign relations with well thought-out, sensible and pragmatic policies. (But nothing too radical.) Third, Abbott must pass the ‘does he care about me?’ test. If he nails all three points, the prize is his.

Janet Albrechtsen

Columnist with the Australian
Bring back conviction politics
Context is everything. So let’s see Tony Abbott reintroduce policy and philosophical conviction back into Canberra. Don’t call it that. The Liberal leader will sound like a geek if he does. But Abbott needs to show voters he believes what he says. Voters know the difference between real conviction and the opportunistic, ersatz variety that has taken root in Canberra under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. Abbott shouldn’t be embarrassed to talk about values.

For example, why didn’t the opposition leader deliver an impassioned address about free speech after those feral tent embassy protestors disgraced themselves in Canberra on Australia Day? His ministers can move into negative political territory by attacking the dark arts of the PM’s office. But as alternative Prime Minister, Abbott should rise above that fray now. The contrast between some deeply held convictions and the transient, cynical politics of convenience practised by the last two Labor Prime Ministers may reinvigorate voters.

Second, Abbott must mark himself as different by not repeating the inflated promises (and the inevitable deflated deliveries) that dispatched Rudd and will likely bring down Gillard. Imagine a leader honest enough and modest enough to under-promise and over-deliver.

Nick Minchin

Former South Australian senator and senior Howard government minister
Lead a disciplined team
All the polls point to a comprehensive Coalition victory at next year’s federal election. The minority Labor government has plumbed new depths in voter support. Julia Gillard has failed as Prime Minister. Yet probably the greatest threat facing Tony Abbott’s team is any emergence of complacency and presumption of victory. Despite its poor record in office, Labor will continue to have the advantages of incumbency, Greens’ preferences, the ‘underdog’ tag, and the massive resources of the trade union movement. A Coalition victory in 2013 will require exacting standards of discipline, cohesion and focus. Tony Abbott proved in 2010 that he is a great and indefatigable campaigner, but he will need a united and disciplined team behind him right through to polling day if, this time, he is to win.

All successful political campaigns have three key ingredients: credible exposure and exploitation of the opponent’s weaknesses; comprehensive, credible, deliverable policies underpinning an overarching positive campaign theme; and well-funded, well-targeted marginal seat campaigns. The Abbott Coalition will need all of these to get over the line. Tony must not allow Labor to divert him from his extraordinarily successful strategy of highlighting Labor’s litany of failures, broken promises and internal division. As the next election approaches, he will need to complement this strategy with policies, words and deeds that convince a majority of voters of his team’s capacity for strong and decisive national leadership in a climate of considerable international economic uncertainty.

Helen McCabe

Editor of Women’s Weekly
Stop spending, start explaining
Tony Abbott could probably go surfing for the rest of the year and still win the next election. Let’s assume things change, though. Here’s what he needs to do:

Immediately develop a sound economic platform. He must stop spending and start explaining. Establish an agreed position within the Coalition on industrial relations reform. Don’t leave it to the campaign, when it is guaranteed to get messy. Maintain party unity. There are rumblings, and they will grow unless he tackles the points above. He must eventually transition from the negativity of holding the government to account (a necessary part of opposition) to looking prime ministerial. It is a subtle but important adjustment. He needs to protect his image as a man of values. This is an advantage over his opponent, but it is being eroded. Look carefully at his team of advisers and make tough decisions if there are liabilities.

Keith Windschuttle

Editor of Quadrant
Start an agricultural revolution
Tony Abbott needs an exciting, dramatic and positive issue his opponents cannot emulate. He already has it in his vision of transforming northern Australia into the food bowl of Asia with new dams to harvest our annual monsoonal deluge. Long, cross-country irrigation channels and pipes from the north could also solve the problems of recurring drought in the Murray-Darling basin, ending expensive water buybacks. With small government emboldening private infrastructure investment and encouraging high immigration, economic growth rates could be dynamic. Such a package would arouse today’s youth, much as the Snowy River Scheme inspired my own generation. They could foresee their country growing to 50 million people in their lifetime. It would be an outright contrast to the Labor/Green formula of a ‘sustainable’ economy, low economic growth, minimal population increase, public monopolies of everything and a big nanny state feeding us moral propaganda to ward off the mounting disquiet.

Mary Kissel

Editorial board member of the Wall Street Journal
Think hong kong, not greece
Tony Abbott’s biggest challenge will be to explain to the Australian public how the Rudd and Gillard governments’ big-spending policies have translated into a smaller private sector, fewer employment opportunities, higher taxes, wasted spending and ultimately a reduced standard of living for everyone. That’s not an easy task when the Labor-led coalition will promise all manner of handouts to key constituencies to buy votes.

Fortunately Abbott has a ready-made illustration of the choice, and can pose a simple question: does Australia want her future to look more like Greece or Hong Kong? Abbott’s advantage is that he’s a conviction politician with a raft of economic evidence on his side. If he can stay on-message and tone down his instinct for big social spending initiatives of his own, he’s very likely to prevail.

John Hirst

Historian at La Trobe University
Stay strong on border protection
‘Abbott is too negative’ is the common complaint. Yet on border protection he is resoundingly positive: he will stop the boats. He faces the challenges of making this policy credible before the election and implementing it afterwards. Failure on this front can’t be hidden and is very damaging — as Labor’s floundering shows.

Against all the objections, Abbott has the advantage of a precedent; that the boats were stopped by the Howard government. Promising a range of measures to achieve this (those announced and others not specified) will be a better approach than relying too heavily on turning boats around. The High Court is making border protection harder, and Abbott stymied the government’s attempt to make its powers secure from challenge (which may not have succeeded). He needs a Plan B. Withdraw from the UN Convention while promising to increase the refugee intake, perhaps?

Rowan Dean

Associate editor of The Spectator Australia
Redraw indigenous policy
Tony Abbott needs to seize control of the issue of indigenous ‘advancement’. In much the same way that it took the Republican Richard Nixon to dramatically open up communist China 40 years ago, a rethinking of indigenous policy will only ever be achieved under a conservative leader; one who has a genuine feeling and understanding of the issues, who is a passionate believer in individual empowerment and has a healthy disdain for the tragic and failed ‘sit-down money’ policies of the past. Building on his experiences with Noel Pearson, Abbott should fashion a bold, sensible and innovative program to use the mining boom to provide comprehensive employment, education and private property ownership opportunities to genuinely advance the wellbeing of our indigenous populations. ‘Moving on’ from the tent embassies, the culture of dependency and the accompanying sense of victimhood will only ever be achieved by a committed and compassionate Liberal leader. This is Abbott’s opportunity to inspire.

Miranda Devine

Columnist with Sydney’s Daily Telegraph
Keep writing your own speeches

This is what I’d advise Tony Abbott: tone down the laugh. Subdue the swagger. And keep doing what you’ve been doing so effectively. Know you are unbeatable. That’s why the ALP is panicking, and the chattering classes are frothing at the mouth. Don’t be afraid of negativity. It’s your job to point out the failings of government. Don’t be bullied into revealing policies too soon. Beef up your party’s economic gravitas with a portfolio shuffle or a canny hire. Hold your nerve, because despite the fearmongers, bigots and lily-livered Liberals, you’re cutting through to the electorate, especially in Labor heartland.

Keep writing your own speeches so people understand your physical discipline is matched with intellectual depth, mental toughness with a warm heart. Keep hammering your message: ‘It doesn’t have to be this bad.’ Stay true to yourself. Trust your instincts. Treasure your thinking time.

Sir Robert Menzies

Former Liberal prime minister
Pick your battles
The duty of an opposition is to oppose sselectively. No government is always wrong on everything. The opposition must choose the ground on which it is to attack. To attack indiscriminately is to risk public opinion, which has a reserve of fairness not always understood.

from The Measure of the Years (1970).