We don’t need this annual outburst of pipeline politics

7 February 2009

The Kremlin wants Western Europe to be dependent on Russian gas, says Neil Barnett, but that doesn’t have to happen if the EU is prepared — for once — to show leadership

The annual New Year gas dispute between Russia and Ukraine assumed particularly menacing proportions this year, being longer than usual and coming in a bitterly cold, recession-bound winter. With a number of countries in central Europe dependent on Russia for 100 per cent of their gas supplies — and Britain needing new sources as North Sea reserves deplete — it’s worth asking if the fatalistic belief that there is no way out of growing dependence on Moscow is reasonable. The simple answer is ‘no’.

This is particularly important because some voices in Western Europe are suggesting that deepening dependence on Russia is the correct response. Indeed, there is reason to believe that Moscow precipitated the crisis to promote exactly this sentiment, thus boosting the prospects of its two pet pipeline projects: Nordstream will run from Siberia through the Baltic to Germany; South Stream will run across the Black Sea to Italy and Austria. Aside from locking those large customers into greater dependence while damaging the prospects of Nabucco, the planned ‘European’ project to bring gas from the Caspian, the Russian pipelines would marginalise central European transit countries that Russia is increasingly inclined to bully. If Poland or Ukraine incurred Russia’s displeasure, they could then be cut off without disturbing Western Europe.

Radek Sikorsky, the Polish foreign minister, once memorably likened the German-Russian Nordstream project to the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact. Urszula Gacek, a Polish MEP with a strong interest in energy security, says, ‘It’s clear to me that in doing this the Russians intend to undermine the credibility of Ukraine as a transit state, as they have done with Belarus, and make customer countries dash for South Stream at the expense of Nabucco.’

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