Political mood turns as Budget report is met with Tory taunts

20 October 2007

As Alistair Darling delivered his pre-Budget report on Tuesday, it was clear that a sea change had taken place in the House of Commons

The closer both parties came to an election, the more apparent this became. The clincher was an ICM/News of the World poll confirming what Labour had suspected: the Tories were six points ahead in marginal seats, where they have long been campaigning. On both policy and election mechanics, the Tories were far more advanced than one might assume from listening to David Cameron’s musings on social responsibility. They had the right analysis, and – when their minds were focused by an election campaign – were capable of producing the right solutions.

And this is what explains the roar from the Tories in the chamber on Tuesday. They called Brown’s bluff, and he blinked first. They have seen his vulnerability and now they know there will not be an election until 2009 (in my view 2010 is the more likely date). If they are freed from their fear of his attacks, many better things may follow. If the public is hungry for tax cuts, then why proceed with Brown’s plans to grow state spending from £589bn today to £678bn in 2010-11? Why not cut a few billion from this – and use this for more tax cuts?

Not so long ago, such an option would have been dismissed; now the political mood has turned. The central premise of the Spending Review – that the health service would be better if it had only another £19.4bn spent on it – carries less and less weight. Osborne’s inheritance tax plan, a snip at £3.5bn, captured the imagination of the public and scared Brown away from an election. The Tories should be asking themselves just what a truly radical policy agenda could do for their prospects.